A Month's Worth of Insanity

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

The odd thing is, I'm considerably AHEAD for the month in SNGs. I'm taking the rest of the week (and thus the month) off from playing, so here are my final statistics for Feb:

SNGs played: 64 (plus 2 2+2 SNGs? See below.)
Total buy-ins: $3653
Total winnings: $5310
Net winnings: $1657
ROI: 45.3%

Buy-ins:
* $215 -- 3 33% in $
* $109 -- 6 50% in $
* $55 -- 29 31% in $
* $33 -- 20 20% in $
* $22 -- 3 0% in $
* $11 -- 3 67% in $ (These are all 2+2 events and I think I forgot to download two of the tourney summaries.)

Total money finishes: 19 (29.7%) -- 8 1st, 2 2nd, 3 3rd, 6 4th

My profit for the month really came from two 1st place finishes, one at $215 ($1440) and one at $109 ($720). I won a net $115 in the $55 SNGs, $150 in the $33 SNGs, and $35 in the 2+2 events. Obviously, I'd like to get my money finish percentage up, although I think my ROI is good.

As to hand statistics....

Hands Dealt: 4133
Vol.$ in Pot: 21.7%
Flops (all hands): 18%
Flops (not blinds): 11%
Showdowns WSF: 33%
Showdowns won: 55%
Total chips won: 124,143
Chips won at showdown: 50,303

I win 60% of my chips without a showdown, a good portion of those on what are probably bluffs, i.e.: I have something, or it's checked to me and I bet, but I doubt I would have the best hand if called. I've no way to know how many were actually the best hand, but I think this is why I do better in the higher buy-ins. At the lower buy-ins (except for the 2+2 SNGs) I almost always have to show down a hand.

Of the 248 times I went to showdown, I had:
* High Card -- 24 (won 17%)
* One Pair -- 91 (won 37%)
* Two Pair -- 79 (won 68%)
* Set -- 18 (won 61%)
* Straight -- 10 (won 90%)
* Flush -- 15 (won 93%)
* Full House -- 8 (won 87%)
* Quads -- 2 (won 100%)
* Straight Flush -- 1 (won 100%)

Obviously, far too often (46%) I'm going to a showdown with only a high card or one pair. A lot of those are coin-flip hands, either a pair vs. overcards or vice versa, where the money is going in pre-flop and my hand doesn't improve.

But too many are attempted steals where I was too stubborn to get out of a pot when I was reraised, or when I was called and my hand missed. This is, by far and away, the biggest leak in my game. That's why I have begun to mix in steals on raggedy hands, hands I don't mind mucking to a reraise, or if I'm called and miss a flop. Because I know I'll (usually) get another steal opportunity soon, I'm less tempted to press on with a second-best hand.

Anyway, for those who say I never admit to my losses, or overinflate my statistics, here they are. I welcome any feedback, especially comparative statistics from others so I have some baseline by which to evaluate my numbers.

Cris

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi All,

The odd thing is, I'm considerably AHEAD for the month in SNGs. I'm taking the rest of the week (and thus the month) off from playing, so here are my final statistics for Feb:

SNGs played: 64 (plus 2 2+2 SNGs? See below.)
Total buy-ins: $3653
Total winnings: $5310
Net winnings: $1657
ROI: 45.3%


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ROI: 44% on about 100 $50 PP SnGs.

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Hands Dealt: 4133


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3840

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Vol.$ in Pot: 21.7%


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17% - Guess I play tighter than you.

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Flops (all hands): 18%
Flops (not blinds): 11%


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Not sure where you found these numbers.

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Showdowns WSF: 33%
Showdowns won: 55%


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Showdowns WSF?
Went to SD: 43%
Won T$ at SD: 57%

[ QUOTE ]

Total chips won: 124,143
Chips won at showdown: 50,303


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Total chips: 50,400
Not sure where you got "chips won at showdown."


[ QUOTE ]

Of the 248 times I went to showdown, I had:
* High Card -- 24 (won 17%)
* One Pair -- 91 (won 37%)
* Two Pair -- 79 (won 68%)
* Set -- 18 (won 61%)
* Straight -- 10 (won 90%)
* Flush -- 15 (won 93%)
* Full House -- 8 (won 87%)
* Quads -- 2 (won 100%)
* Straight Flush -- 1 (won 100%)


[/ QUOTE ]
High: 33 @ 21%
Pair: 108 @ 47%
2P: 70 @ 69%
Trips: 21 @ 62%
Str8: 12 @ 100%
Flush: 12 @ 100%
FH: 16 @ 75%
Quads: 1 @ 100%

(probably better to list % of total hands here to compare)

[ QUOTE ]

Obviously, far too often (46%) I'm going to a showdown with only a high card or one pair.


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I'm at 51%. So maybe you're not doing terribly. Or I am. Who knows.

[ QUOTE ]

A lot of those are coin-flip hands, either a pair vs. overcards or vice versa, where the money is going in pre-flop and my hand doesn't improve.

But too many are attempted steals where I was too stubborn to get out of a pot when I was reraised, or when I was called and my hand missed. This is, by far and away, the biggest leak in my game. That's why I have begun to mix in steals on raggedy hands, hands I don't mind mucking to a reraise, or if I'm called and miss a flop. Because I know I'll (usually) get another steal opportunity soon, I'm less tempted to press on with a second-best hand.

Anyway, for those who say I never admit to my losses, or overinflate my statistics, here they are. I welcome any feedback, especially comparative statistics from others so I have some baseline by which to evaluate my numbers.

Cris

[/ QUOTE ]

And there's mine, FWIW. I never claimed to be an expert. I've only been playing about 6 months. I think I play ok for now, although I have a long way to go to get to where I'd like to be.

eastbay

[Pitcher]

Hi Cris,

These numbers are excellent in my estimation. This looks like a breakthrough month based on your past winnings. You made more this month than all last year. I have been getting numbers in this range for 10 months except I play 2.5 x more tourneys and many more at PP than at Poker Stars. Further, the vast majority of tourneys I play are 1 table with 10 players. 46% ROI is VERY GOOD in my experience. Players that claim more are playing lower levels and have small sample sizes from what I can see. That is not to say there is not always room for improvement, but the results seem to be there. My in the money percentage for this month is 45% (within one percent of 10 month numbers) but it is hard to compare these results with yours because you are playing two tables against generally tougher competition.
Here are some small differences in stats: My call % is closer to EastBays and raise percentage is close to 16% and % won at showdown is 54%. I raise a ton with 5-6 players and of course, heads up so that is why raise % is so high.



Bottom line, this looks very good to me.

Pitcher

[Prickly Pete]

What do you think your ROI would have been if you were even an average player "luck-wise"? 60%? 70%?

[TheGrifter]

What's with you lately?

All your posts have been lamenting your bad luck and creating the impression that you've been losing the rent and then you come out with this.

I think your stats show that if anything you're running better than should be expected. Your ROI is inflated because you've performed better in the higher level SnG's than in the lower (which you mention in your post) and really that's about the only conclusion you can draw from such a small sample.

I would say your biggest problem right now is your attitude towards poker. I may be off base on this but it seems to me that you're the type of person that's used to immediate success and perhaps you're easily frustrated. If so, then recognizing this and actively combating it may be the easiest way to improve your game.

You've said yourself that tilt is a major factor for you and I think I can see why. My advice, based on your stats, is don't worry, be happy.

[William]

[ QUOTE ]
Buy-ins:
* $215 -- 3 33% in $
* $109 -- 6 50% in $
* $55 -- 29 31% in $
* $33 -- 20 20% in $
* $22 -- 3 0% in $
* $11 -- 3 67% in $ (These are all 2+2 events and I think I forgot to download two of the tourney summaries.)

Total money finishes: 19 (29.7%) -- 8 1st, 2 2nd, 3 3rd, 6 4th

My profit for the month really came from two 1st place finishes, one at $215 ($1440) and one at $109 ($720). I won a net $115 in the $55 SNGs, $150 in the $33 SNGs, and $35 in the 2+2 events

[/ QUOTE ]

I am as always going to be the one that ruins the party here.

As you said, your whole profit comes from 2 top finishes in the heavy level.
My experience tells me that in such a pattern, lots of 50 and 30 SNG and very few 100 and 200, what has hapenned is that as you were losing or not really winning anything, you decided to take a few shots at the expensive SNGs and got lucky( I have lots of friends that do that, all losing players).
So even if the total result is positive, the way it was achieved is highly doubtful and in the long run it can only result in negative results.

I hope I am wrong on this one, but it seems to me that if you don't show any (or hardly any) profit in what, according to your numbers, has to be consider your main target area (50 and 30$ SNGs) the results at a higher level come from some steaming attempts to recover/improve the bad results, and you got lucky; this time.
You can turn around numbers any way you want and always find what you are looking for, but if you are honest with youself, there is only one proper way to read them.

Anyway, as all that counts (this time) are the final results, congrats on a nice month.

William

[DarkKnight]

agreed. ITM for below $100's is aweful except for the $11's. Looks to me like you got lucky in the big one's while you were chasing.

You're living dangerously - be careful.

DK

[CrisBrown]

Hi William,

[ QUOTE ]
As you said, your whole profit comes from 2 top finishes in the heavy level.
My experience tells me that in such a pattern, lots of 50 and 30 SNG and very few 100 and 200, what has hapenned is that as you were losing or not really winning anything, you decided to take a few shots at the expensive SNGs and got lucky( I have lots of friends that do that, all losing players).

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This isn't exactly true in my case. I was playing a lot of $33s earlier in the month simply because there never seemed to be anyone in the $55s or higher when I was online. Once the $55s started to fill again, I stopped the $33s. Given a choice, I'd play exclusively $55s and $109s, but it can easily take 45 minutes or more for a $55 or $109 to fill, and if a $215 is almost filled, I'll just jump in there rather than wait. All three of the $215s I played had at least 16 players signed up when I saw them: targets of opportunity.

What I'd like to get is better consistency in my $55 and $109 showings.

Cris

[CrisBrown]

Hiya Grifter,

I thought I'd said -- more than a few times -- that I was actually well ahead for the month. As for what's with me, probably my native and often self-defeating perfectionism. I could care less about my successes in life (and my wins in poker). I want to reduce or eliminate the failures (my losses in poker).

As it turns out, like William and DarkKnight, I see a lot more to criticize in my month's numbers than I do to feel happy about. I barely broke even in $55s. 100% of my profits came from two big wins; that's way too unreliable. What I see is a month of overall failure (breaking even) punctuated by two very profitable successes.

Cris

[CrisBrown]

Hi Pete,

I dunno. As I said in my replies above, I'm not happy with these numbers. I see too much failure (breaking even), punctuated by two very profitable successes. That's not good enough (to me).

Cris

[CrisBrown]

Hi eastbay,

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Flops (all hands): 18%
Flops (not blinds): 11%


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Not sure where you found these numbers.


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"General Info" tab, "Limits/Blind Structure Summary" (the middle section), click "Show Hands for All Blinds/Limits," then "More Detail."

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Showdowns WSF: 33%
Showdowns won: 55%

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Showdowns WSF?

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Same source as above.

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Not sure where you got "chips won at showdown."

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"Misc. Stats" tab, "Known Tournament Final Hand Summary" (top section), "Tournament Amount Won" column. That amount is for showdowns only.

For the total chips won, "General Info" tab, "Limit/Blind Structure Summary" (middle section), "Tournament Amount Won" column.

Cris

[triplc]

Hi Cris,

First, if you are going to be truly honest with yourself, you should probably discount the finishes at all levels but the $55 and $33 level, simply because the samples are so small. That said, you can also discount the others as well to a degree because even at the level at which you play the most you only have 29 to work with. So, I could argue that in the 9 tourneys that you played at $100 and higher, you either got very lucky or played particularly well that day, and in the others you got cold decked or made more mistakes. There just aren't enough results here to adequately judge your performance.

One thing I would suggest is measuring yourself at one level for a significant number of trials (100, 200, 300...anybody have a good number?) before you draw any conclusions about your play. This does not mean you shouldn't play the occasional $109 or $215, but I just wouldn't include it in my measurements of my play.

I also would not combine ROIs at different level because it will give you a skewed picture of your overall performance. If you look at the individual ROIs at each level you have the following...

215 - 123%
109 - 93%
55 - 7%
33 - 23%
22 = 0%
11 - 106%

The only two groups that are even close to significant (33 and 55) combine for an ROI of around 12%. Not great, but still a very small sample.

Look at it this way...suppose I am flipping a coin with you and we flip 1000 times for a buck apiece. Over the first 999 flips, I win 500 times. Then on the last flip, you decide to wager $1000 instead of $1 and you win. Thus, you've wagered approx. $2000 and won around $2500 for an ROI of 20%. 1 lucky flip doesn't mean that you are better at this game than I am...

Hope this makes sense.

CCC

[TimTimSalabim]

You can eliminate the factor of getting lucky in higher-buyin events by just considering each event to be the same. 10 unit buyins + 1 unit fee. If you do this, your total buyin is 64*11 or 704 units. Your prize money is 8*72 + 2*54 + 3*36 +6*18 units, or a total of 900 units. For an ROI (if I did this right, ha!) of about 28%. Still pretty damn good in my book.