Where am I at with AA?

[asdf1234]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold 'Em (9 handed), no read on MP3, SB is quite a loose player

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB folds, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB raises, MP3 3-bets, CO calls, Hero caps, SB calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (14.5 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, MP3 bets, CO folds, Hero calls, SB raises, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

River: (20.5 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 23.5 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 23.5 BB, between Hero, SB and MP3.</font>

I never felt like I knew where I was at in this hand. Comments on all streets appreciated.

[SinCityGuy]

These low limit games really challenge your hand reading ability. I'll guess that MP has TT for a flopped set, and then the small blind hit his flush on the turn.

[sthief09]

I'm answering this not because I think I'll be right, but because I want to guess.

MP raises first in, and does not cap it. He could have a number of hands, being that hes only raising into 4 people.

SB and MP3 BOTH check-raised you on the flop. It's unlikely either is on a draw, because there's no reason to check raise in a 3 person field with a flush draw, and a pair/draw combination isn't possible since you have the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

So, since MP check raised you preflop, I'd probably put him on JJ, hoping that he could trap your AK. I don't think a hand like AT 3-bets after someone check-raised in front of him. And JJ wouldn't cap 3 people preflop.

So what would the SB cold call 2 bets for that could give him such a strong hand? I'm thinking TT, giving him top set.

At this point I'd be thinking I'm probably beat, but you have to call. You have the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif giving you a backdoor nut flush draw, plus, if you turn one of your red aces, you will have the nuts.

So despite you capping the flop, MP bets into you. As I stated above, it's unlikely that you were against a draw, although I guess K /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif is possible at this point from MP (although his choice not to 3-bet the turn shows weakness).

I guess maybe MP thought his overpair is still good on the turn, betting into it. You call, then get raised by the SB, who I still think has TT. If you had red aces instead of black ones, I might just throw the hand away, since there is a possibility MP3 will 3-bet behind you, and you will face another cap. But you have the nut flush draw, and the pot is offering you tremendous odds, so you continue, praying for a /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Since the pot is so big on the river, you call, assuming MP3 doesn't raise since he chose not to on the turn. If MP3 did 3-bet the turn, you'd fold.

So, I think you were against JJ and TT, assuming they are competent, and even though I think you were beat on the flop, the turn gave you 9 outs to the nuts (possibly 7 if you put someone on a flush), and 2 more outs to the strongest possible non-flush hand. I hope for your sake the SB wasn't holding Q /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[asdf1234]

Absolutely correct. SB has K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif for the turned flush and MP has the flopped set of tens.

[sthief09]

Why would SB check then 3-bet the flop on a flush draw? This would be a semi-bluff. The most important aspect of a semi-bluff is the possibility of winning the pot right there. You aren't going to win the pot against someone who check raised. Further, even if you KNOW you will get callers, you are getting a -EV on this play. With 2 others in the pot, giving you 2-1 for your 1.86-1, that's bad, and you likely won't get raised if you do hit your flush. He's out of position, so he's not raising for a free card. I'd understand him doing this if he had a 2nd way to win the pot, but K9 needing runner runner QJ for the straight isn't a 2nd way to win the pot. Plus, even if he does hit the flush, theres a chance someone has a set and will fill up with the 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif or any other board pair. This would be a horrible check-reraise. Not to mention there's a chance you chase out the flop bettor, reducing your implied odds by about half.

I agree the flush is a possibility, but if the player is somewhat competend, he wouldn't check, then 3-bet the flop on a flush draw and no other outs aside from a perfect-perfect straight

[dirty_dan]

Getting 2-1 for his flush draw is +EV. However his raise wasn't for value. SB most likely raised because it was checked to the button, who would have bet the flop with anything. So the SB raises to show strength and try to clean up his pair outs. It's not a semi-bluff to win the pot right there. It's a semi-bluff to win the pot on the turn if his raise is folded around and the button just calls.

[chesspain]

I would say you could safely fold on the river. I know the mantra about not folding big hands in big pots, but given all of the superaggressive, tricky plan by both opponents, by the time the action gets to you on the river, I'ld say the odds that your hand is good is way less than 1%.

[sthief09]

The reason I say it's -EV is because the SB forced 2 players to call 2 bets cold. That's chasing people out, not inviting them in. Whether or not he wants to clean up his pair outs, his best chance at winning is via the flush.

Basically, IF he had a flush draw and 2 overs, he has two options after the button bets. He can raise, trying to chase KQ, AK, and AQ out, going heads up with the button, or he can call, inviting 2 other people in to call, conceding that he'll probably lose if he turns or rivers a pair. If he goes heads up, there is no guarantee that he overcards will hold. Being that the button 3-bet preflop, it's safe to say there is a real possibility he's got AA, KK, QQ, meaning that he has somewhere between 0 and 3 pair outs. Going heads up with a nut flush draw isn't as good as having one in a 4-way pot.

The only way I can advocate driving people out is because it's one of those situations where "the pot is already big, so you want to win it right there." This would only be a good option if he really thinks the button would 3-bet AK or JJ, this bearing in mind that many players don't 3-bet AK, although most would 3-bet JJ in the described situation. I can definitely advocate trying to win the pot right there, but there is no guarantee the person lays down AK without improvement. The only situation where I'd want to go heads up is with JJ, because you have about a 50% chance of winning the pot.

Despite the small probability of 3 pairs being involved, I still think it's a possibility that SB flopped a set, check raising because he knew the button would bet, trying to drive out spade draws, and MP3 just had an overpair, check raising for the same reason. You might've swayed me to thinking he had 2 overcard spades though.

I think we are all in agreement that aces were never ahead once the flop came out, but the player played correctly despite this.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I'ld say the odds that your hand is good is way less than 1%.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to keep in mind that his call closed all betting. There was no chance of him being raised. He was given a guaranteed 22.5 BB for his 1 BB. You can't possibly say that he was worse than 22.5-1 in this situation. People play weird online. He could easily be up against JJ and QQ or AT, or even JT. I've folded straights for 2 bets on the river on 4-flush boads, only for the money to be given to a guy that rivered 2 pair. I'd say, at WORST, he'd 10-1 against winning this pot.

[37offsuit]

You got double check raised on the flop. Here, I think you'd get more information by calling the three bet and seeing if SB caps. If he does, that would tell me they both had made hands and then I'd call the last bet to see the turn, then fold if I haven't improved. Might as well let them fight out their set over set or set situation.

If SB just calls, then you'd figure he was check raising to get some value on a strong draw. Since you have the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif, I'd guess he'd have the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif X /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

This makes the rest of the hand a little easier to play for you. If your Ace comes out on the turn, likely the SB will check since he hasn't made his flush, MP3 will bet and now you'll raise him. This has the added benefit that the SB may feel his draw isn't worth possibly 4 more bets if you 3 bet and MP3 caps, so he may fold. MP3 will then either put you on AA and go into call down mode, or he'll test you one more time, letting you cap it.

Since we do know the rest of the hand though, we know that the spade fell on the turn. If SB bets out or MP3 bet out, I fold now. SB has told you he's on a draw and MP3's continued aggression shows trips.

[sthief09]

OK, everyone is against me, so I'm conceding to the more knowledgeable people and better players. I've never considered raising a bet to my direct right with a flush draw. Isn't this an act used to drive people out? Why try to isolate with nothing but a draw? If, in fact, he isolated the button player, then he would have made a HUGE mistake. His only chance to win heads up vss the button is via a flush (he doesn't know this, but his overcards are useless because button holds AA). If he hits the flush, he's going to win one way or another. Wouldn't he rather do it against 3 people than 1?

[37offsuit]

Well like I said, until seeing what the SB did in my scenario, I wouldn't know what he had, which is why I like calling the three bet to give him the option of capping.

SB could be thinking a lot of things here. Realize, he likely didn't expect to get check raised himself, so maybe he thinks that if he check raises the flop, then checks out on the turn, people will be less likely to bet because of the potential second check raise. So even in poor position, he could be doing this for free cards for his draw.

In that, it's a semi-bluff designed not to win the pot right there, but to give him a chance to see more cards cheaply. Even if he doesn't stop people from betting the turn, perhaps they'll bet more cautiously, or not raise when they should.

[asdf1234]

[ QUOTE ]
we know that the spade fell on the turn. If SB bets out or MP3 bet out, I fold now.

[/ QUOTE ]
I can't fold the nut flush draw on the turn in a pot this big.

[37offsuit]

I can if I think I'm going to get trapped between two people that are going to cap it, especially if I think one of them has 10 outs for a boat and the other already made his flush. That has 6 spades in play even if the player with trips doesn't have one, leaving you 7 outs, only 6 of which are clean since the 3 of spades would give someone with trips either a boat or quads.

[asdf1234]

Well, when I called on the turn, it was only one bet to me, giving me 15:1 on the call. The SB then checkraised and MP only called, so at this point the pot is a monstrous 19 BB and I'm closing the action. Even if the MP had reraised, I would have been obligated to call I think, even with only 6 clean outs. Assuming everyone puts in 4 bets, and I already have one in there, I'm getting 23:3 or about 7.6:1 on something that's less than 7:1. I could probably anticipate at least a crying call from somebody on the river if I get there.

[sthief09]

So what'd they have?

[RacersEdge]

Suppose the hero's hand was K's instead of A's (same suits).......is this then a no-brainer fold on the flop with the nuts-flush draw gone and the potential of being against AA?

[novamob]

The most hideous part of this hand is the fact that the SB called 2.5 bets cold with K9s.

[asdf1234]

MP had TT
SB had K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't possibly say that he was worse than 22.5-1 in this situation...I'd say, at WORST, he'd 10-1 against winning this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]


Then you would be on drugs.