Okay ... this is absurd....

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

$55 two-table SNG and I'm tied for the chip lead on the bubble. Other leader is to my right, and I have 88 in the BB. He raises 3xBB, and I read him for a mediocre Ace and a steal. So I push all in with my 88, forcing him to risk his entire tournament on the flip of a coin.

And OF COURSE he calls, because apparently PokerStars sent out a message that everyone should call CrisBrown with any race situation today ... because I am 0-for-14 in races. Seven times I've had overcards vs. a lower pair, and EVERY TIME, the pair has hit for a set. Seven times I've had a pair vs. overcards, and EVERY TIME the overcards have hit for two pair or better.

I don't even need to tell the end of this story.

Disgusted,

Cris

[La Brujita]

Cris why would you push in against the big stack here? Many if not most players are not capable of laying down AK in this situation or even other big cards. That is why they lose money and that is why we make money. I am going to assume the blinds are 200-400 antes 25 (just a guess). He has raised to 1200 and with the money in the pot he is pretty close to even ev.

But more importantly it has to be up to you to avoid confrontations with the other big stack. What I am trying to say is you can't expect other to act reasonably and avoid confrontations, it means sometimes you either have to make tough laydowns or make a flat call and hope to flop a set.

Finally, no read is perfect. What if he had an overpair? Then your play becomes exponentially worse.

I don't mean to be blunt I am just getting hammered today and in a bit of the same mood as you which is partly blaming others for questionable plays I make when they then outdraw me. After these last two games I am done for a few days.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya LaBrujita,

Blinds were 400/800, and he raised 2400. He had ATo.

Cris

[La Brujita]

Let's assume you each had 6500 chips (before you posted). There is 6500+200+2400+250 (antes) in the pot after your raise. He has to decide to call of his last 4100 chips with 9350 in the pot. If my late night math is correct he only needed to win 30.5% of the time to make a plus ev decision.

pokenum -h ac th - - 8s 8d

Ac Th 753936 44.03 953619 55.69 4749 0.28 0.442
8s 8d 953619 55.69 753936 44.03 4749 0.28 0.558

He is getting a 14% edge on what he needs by calling. Of course the numbers were created by his raise in the first place, but you put him in a hell of a bad position. He is basically gotten the right odds to call agasinst dominated hands like AK AQ etc.

The problem was the money wasn't deep enough to cause him to make a mistake by calling. In other words, according to the FTOP, even given you to were the chip leaders, he would have been forced to call if the cards were turned over.

I am not saying he played it well, but do you see my point. My math may be a bit off as I am in two games right now.

Edit to say got knocked out of the bubble in that one game all in AA v. 77 with 3500/8000 chips in the pot. I hate this f%%%cking game so much some times. Man it was a rough day against the softest competion I have seen at PP in a long time. Over 40K playing.

Regards

[Utah]

I agree that you shouldn't be tangling with the other big stack here. If you trust your read, how about a call and pushing on the flop in no A comes.

What level do you play at? At many levels there are simply too many bad players who cant get away from an A once they have committed chips. Also, I would take into consideration how the other big stack got the chips. Often, these guys are the calling stations that got lucky a few times.

I, as every player, knows how it feels to keep getting your money in correctly and getting beat. As much as it sucks, you cannot worry about it. As long as you get your chips in correctly the money will come to you long term. I am sure you know that. Good luck.

[Bozeman]

I like your play if you or he is tight enough, but that apparently wasn't the case here. Sorry. BTW, some people will be considerably more inclined to call if they have you even infinitesimally outchipped, so for them even stacks is never exactly true.

Craig

[CrisBrown]

Thanks, Craig

Oh well. Today's finishing stats:

Overcards vs. underpairs -- 0-for-9
Underpairs vs. overcards -- 0-for-11
Dominating hands vs. dominated hands -- 1-for-6
Bankroll -- -$800

Time to take a few days off.

Cris

[William]

I would take into consideration how the other big stack got the chips. Often, these guys are the calling stations that got lucky a few times.

Excellent reasoning. Your right on the spot. Always keep in mind what kind of a player he is. If he is the gambling/calling station type, he won't care about the coin flip, and in that case, you are putting yourself in a coin flip situation as he is going to call.

[Christoferj]

had one of those days myself

started with My AA against his KK he makes a straight board: AQJ5T suits not important

SnG2 88 against AA i had 88 against a slowplayed AA
board: 8T2 rainbow 4 completes rainbow now i go all in and he follows. river A grrrr

sng3 KK against AJo board: 99AJ5.

these hand are also very annoying:
i have KQc he have Ad6h
board: Ac7c2c i went all in he thinks for awhile and go allin to.
turn : 7
river: 7

well there were more bad beats dont remember them all.

[jaydoggie]

i had almost the identical thing happen to me. i was in the BB, SB raises 3x BB. I had him covered by 1200. I held 88. he had A6.
I pushed them in but got the call. immediately after that ace hit on the turn i said to myself, i KNEW what he was holding and I KNEW what i was holding. I should have called the raise and played the flop, knowing he wasnt going to lay down the A, and I didnt want to take a chance even if I had a big edge, the flop was the right time to make my play.

[Stoneii]

Hi Cris

Sorry to hear about the absurd day at the office. I don't play at even remotely close to your level (put it this way a losing day of $800 would wipe out my bankroll!) but I took a notion to play at the upper end of my 20xBuy-in guide to bankroll survival and surprisingly had a great weekend.

I played 7 SnG's at stars in total. One single table at $30+3, 4 single tables at $20+2, 1 two-table at $20+2 and 1 $27+2 super-satellite to $200+15 (which I only really played because of previous results).

I also played a $3 multi table satellite to Sunday game (where I bumped into Doc & Heyrocker).

Anyways my results were

1st in $30 single
1st in $20 - 2-table
1st in one of $20 singles
3rd twice in $20 singles

and an also ran in other 2 SnG's (although the super-satellite I was knocked out when all-in with best hand).

I can't recall that I sucked out in many if any (maybe one stands out in my head where I went in ahead with 99 v 66, saw a 6 on turn and 9 on river /images/graemlins/smile.gif).

I don't need to pass on any advice to you as you know yourself this is just the 22% (that William quoted as all-in wins on stars as a favourite!!) bowing to the 78% suckout rule /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

The scary thing is I have now to look forward to 78% suckout rate in next lot of games /images/graemlins/confused.gif (think I better move down to $5 tables for a while.

Good Luck (or rather good odds) will out.

Stoneii

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I read him for a mediocre Ace and a steal.

Depends on how you define a "mediocre" ace. I would define it as having a kicker between J-7, meaning that if he calls, he has 2 overcards 60% of the time your read is accurate. Depending on the size of the other two stacks, I'm more likely to fold a middle pair to a raise here unless the raiser has been unusually active (i.e., raising more often than me /images/graemlins/wink.gif)

To commiserate a bit, I went through a stretch last week where 7 consecutive times I got KK I got busted or crippled.