AA v multi-opponents

i was interested to see if an idea that Rich (The Rock) P keeps espousing was true


he appears to think that with multi-opponents an AA is not as great a hand as Dave in Cali seems to believe it is, and that it should be dropped very easily


so i did a couple of calculations, looking only at two pairs and trips


admittedly, this leaves a lot to be desired, but i don't think the final inference is that far out


if AA is against 5 players with all different cards :


this is like saying you know 12 cards, and there are 40 cards left in the deck


30 of these 40 will pair someone on the flop


10 to 30 = 0.33 to 1 = 75%

9 to 30 = 0.3 to 1 = 77%

8 to 30 = 0.27 to 1 = 78.7%


75

25 x 77 = 19.25

5.75 x 78.7 = 4.5

75 + 19.25 + 4.5 = 98.75%


therefore it's virtually certain that at least someone will make a pair


however the point is it's a lower pair than your aces so they still have to improve


and they have only 2 outs for trips and only 3 kicker outs for two pairs = total 5 outs


you don't have to improve yet but in any case you still have the same number, 2, for ace outs for higher trips and twice as many, 6, flopcard outs for the higher two pairs aces = total 8 outs, if you need them


in conclusion i would say that you don't want to be complacent if you have a number of opponents, but the conventional wisdom of making players pay to chase would mean that you should always raise at every opportunity until you believe you are definitely beaten - in other words, never limp preflop, as it is preflop when you know that you are not beaten and it is preflop where the most potentially dangerous chasing is done by your opponents

I don't think it needs to get this complicated. The fact is that over time, no other hand will win more times or make you more money than AA, regardless of how many opponents you face.


Anybody who says they wouldn't want to take AA up against 1 player or 9, doesn't understand something about limit hold'em. I think what Rich was saying, is that having AA in an 8-way pot is nothing to get overly excited about, since you are no longer a favorite to win that one particular hand. This doesn't mean you don't LOVE having it, because the money you'll make when you DO win, should more than make up for the times you don't.

I've been trying to figure out how to run a simulation on my Turbo Texas-Hold'em program. My experience at the casino has been that single pairs just don't win the hands that I've played in. I would like to put up four or more different drawing hands against AA. I have little doubt that AA will fair well against pairs and against three or fewer players; but I suspect that multiple non-random drawing hands will decimate the value of AA, particularly suited connectors and hands that don't require an Ace to improve.


So far I've been able to stack the deck, but have been unable to run a full simualation.

just adding a further thought, say the flop is Q85r, which pairs someone's queens and someone's 8's and someone's 5's, a bit of betting by your aces and the queens should normally get rid of the 8's and 5's - leaving your aces up against his queens - good news for the aces


if there is a fourflush or a four-straight still in there, drawing, what can you do, whatever you have?

Even if you do manage to carefully rig a situation where AA is faced by so many drawing hands that it has less effective outs than those hands (and I don't think you'll be able to....) that is not a reason to not raise aces preflop, because that must have been an exceptionally lucky flop for those hands. Preflop you were about an 80:20 favourite versus every hand.


Chris

"you should always raise at every opportunity until you believe you are definitely beaten - in other words, never limp preflop, as it is preflop when you know that you are not beaten and it is preflop where the most potentially dangerous chasing is done by your opponents"

" I think what Rich was saying, is that having AA in an 8-way pot is nothing to get overly excited about, since you are no longer a favorite to win that one particular hand. This doesn't mean you don't LOVE having it, because the money you'll make when you DO win, should more than make up for the times you don't. "


If this was what Rich was saying, then I don't he'd get any arguement (although as I've written, it's simply not relevant to consider whether or not you're the 'favorite' to play in any given hand without considering the size of the pot).


The problem is that he's saying you should muck your aces if you can't get people to drop, which is something else entirely.

Thanks Chris, but this has not been my experience, and I'm unwilling to expend more money on a proposition that it proving severely unprofitable