Hitting that 40%er

[TylerD]

OK I get a bit lucky and hit my 40%er, but after having my aces cracked by JTo and my AJ button semi-steal running into AA in the BB in my previous two SnGs I figure its my turn to get a bit lucky. The question is should I have put myself in that position in the first place.

5 handed 1 table SnG at Stars. I have a tight reputation, the truth being I hadn't seen many decent hands yet and have survived mostly through stealing the blinds.

The button had been constantly taking blinds from me until I raised him all-in the two orbits previous with AT, he folded the next steal attempt he got and then this hand happened.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (5 handed) converter (http://www.stompandcrush.com/cgi-bin/hhparser.cgi)

Button (t2875)
Hero (t1908)
BB (t2855)
UTG (t2342)
MP1 (t3520)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 folds, Button raises to t1225, Hero raises to t1908 (All-In), BB folds, Button calls t1908.

Flop: (t3891) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t3891) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t3891) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t3891

He had A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

There was a chance that a) he might have folded to my all-in b) I had the better hand c) I hit my 40%er /images/graemlins/wink.gif Should I have gone all-in or waited to do some more stealing?

[bragging] I then went on to win, my 4th out of 11 $22er {/brag]

[jaydoggie]

i figure him to have something the next steal attempt after you've already made a stand. however he'll still probably make the raise if he has KJs KQ any ace, any pair. do you think he would have attempted with less?

mathmatically it was probably the right play assuming he will steal with those hands, based on the times he's going to fold a winning weak ace, and the times youre going to suck out.

[Bozeman]

I don't like it, because you will get called ~100% of the time, and nothing but a few kings and qjs are you ahead of. Most of his hands are Ax, and blinds are not quite big enough. Even if he is playing 25% of his hands, you are a 1.3:1 dog. While this makes for +CEV, it is probably -$EV. If, however, he makes this play with 40%+ of hands, you are a slight favorite, so it becomes correct.

Craig