Do you call with the straight-flush draw?

[PrayingMantis]

22$ 2-tables SNG, blinds 25/50, I'm somewhat below avarage w/T1535, 6 at my table.

3 limpers, and I complete on SB with T /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. BB checks.

Flop: J /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I bet T150. BB folds, and short-stack EP (T710) raises all-in. Folded to me.

No doubt it is +CEV. But considering it's 40% of my stack now, is it an automatic call?

[jaydoggie]

personally i wouldnt have lead out with this hand. i would have waited for someone else to bet. if they were weak i would have raised. otherwise youre walking into someone raising their AQ, or set, when they probably would have gone a little slower if you wouldnt have put more into the pot.

[t_perkin]

Let look at his possible hands:

You are a coin flip against AQ, QJ, KT

You are a dog against Ahxh esp. x=2-5 and 33

Plus of the 18 outs that you have (for flush or straight) only 5 give you the nuts (any 8 and Qh). This really screws your implied odds.

Considering he is short stack and moved in I would say he is on a draw, my guess is Ahxh.

I reckon this is a fold. I also think you should not have bet from the SB with a drawing hand, especially with a flop that someone is likely to have got hold of.
I lose money doing this too. The problem is then that you are stuck on the turn when you don't hit. Another bet with players behind is very risky on the turn, but checking shouts I AM ON A DRAW MAKE ME FOLD. Classic case of the value of position.

So I reckon check on the flop. Call if you get the pot odds, otherwise fold. Alternatively make the check raise allin, if you think there is a reasonable chance of getting the pot there and then.

Hard to do but I reckon it is right.

Tim

[jaydoggie]

i completely agree with the check/fold check/allin play when drawing in EP.

however if you hit something, i think the correct move is to bet, not only not to give someone a free card but because it's the LP duty to raise to find out where youre at if theyve got a decent peice of the flop. however i dont think you want a raise when youre drawing. even if its a powerful draw.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
You are a dog against Ahxh esp. x=2-5 and 33

[/ QUOTE ]
True, but not much; it's about 56:44 in favour of Ah-4h. Pot odds are 1110:560, almost 2:1.

If you knew you were up against Ah-4h, you'd still be getting CEV of +175 to call, as compared to folding. That's way too good to pass up.

If the opponent has a set, he's still only a 58:42 favourite; again it's a clear call. If opponent has two pair, he's an underdog to your straight flush draw!

The worst case scenario that I can find is if the opponent has precisely K/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, blocking both your straight flush outs. Then your opponent is a 64:36 favourite. But you're getting 2:1 pot odds, so it's still positive CEV to call!

[ QUOTE ]
Plus of the 18 outs that you have (for flush or straight) only 5 give you the nuts (any 8 and Qh). This really screws your implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
Okay, just to nitpick a little. There's only fifteen outs to a flush or straight: two straight flush outs, seven flush outs, and six straight outs. And since it will be heads-up and all-in, you're not worried so much about making "the nuts", just about making a better hand than your opponent. And you know that there are at least six outs, probably eight or more, that will give you a better hand (although the opponent could have redraws).

I do agree with t_perkin that an ace-high heart draw is one of the most likely holdings for the opponent who moved in. But there are lots of other things he could have that would make this a coinflip where you're getting 2:1 pot odds. And other things (such as a smaller flush draw, or T9 of a different suit), that make you a big favourite.

Praying Mantis recognized in the original post that this was a positive-CEV situation; the question was whether calling would nevertheless be negative-$EV. As I understand it, this was a two-table SNG with about 12 players left ("6 at my table"). In that case it's a clear call since it's far from the money. If I misunderstood, and we're actually down to the final six (with four getting paid), it's closer of course but considering you have the opponent covered, I'd still say call.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Praying Mantis recognized in the original post that this was a positive-CEV situation; the question was whether calling would nevertheless be negative-$EV. As I understand it, this was a two-table SNG with about 12 players left ("6 at my table"). In that case it's a clear call since it's far from the money. If I misunderstood, and we're actually down to the final six (with four getting paid), it's closer of course but considering you have the opponent covered, I'd still say call.


[/ QUOTE ]


It is pretty early in the game , with 11-13 players left at 2 tables. Your CEV reasoning is similar to what mine was, at the game. And I agree with tim and yourself that shortstack is probably on a Axs flush draw (but can be on weaker hands too). Still, as you state, even if he is on a higher flush draw, It's a huge +CEV proposition, with basically 2:1 on the pot, while only 44:56 dog, plus I'm not risking my whole stack.

PrayingMantis

[La Brujita]

Under the circumstances you detail I think it is an absolutely automatic call.

[M.B.E.]

So how did it turn out? Don't leave us hanging!

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for your replies, although I must say I was a bit surprised by them, as two of you said it is a fold. For me it was pretty much an obvious call, with a little question-mark (as it is a tourney situation, so CEV might play a bit different role) - and that's why I posted it here. I'll be happy to receive more opinions.

I called. He showd K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Turn x, but river was K /images/graemlins/spade.gif, for my straight, and I took it down.

PrayingMantis

[jaydoggie]

I didnt say fold. I just said I would have checked it from the SB. :P Either way, glad it worked out for you. Its really depressing going/calling an allin with more 15 outs or better and watching the turn+river come 44. :\

[t_perkin]

Yes you are right - I was too lazy to work out the pot odds.

Also your point about me mentioning implied odds is correct, this obviously is only a consideration when you both have money left to play with.

How would you play this on the flop MBE? bet out? or call?

If he had had you covered and you checked (or bet for that matter) and he had bet (or raised), would you move in? or is it just a matter of trying to see as many cards as cheaply as possible?

Thanks

Tim

[PrayingMantis]

Hey jaydoggie (and tim)

I appreciate your replies, regardless if I agree or don't. I only meant I was a bit surprised that it wasn't a unanimous "call" here (I even thought I might get flamed for asking whether to fold this s/f draw...). Any reply is always welcome.

Thanks again,

PrayingMantis

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
I called. He showd K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Turn x, but river was K /images/graemlins/spade.gif, for my straight, and I took it down.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ha, maybe it's schadenfreude but I just love to see someone get beat by hitting their own hand on the river. Yesterday, for example, I saw someone go all-in with something like 9h-8h against pocket queens. The board was something like js-9c-2h. The guy with 9h-8h made a backdoor flush, with the river being the queen of hearts so the other guy hit a set he didn't need.

Anyway, back to Praying Mantis's hand -- Kh-7h was almost the worst thing he could have had for you on that flop; a 59:41 favourite. Still your pot odds were plenty good to call the flop raise.

I'm mulling over your initial flop play of betting 150. I'm not convinced that was the optimal move, but I can't think of anything better! Part of the problem is, what if you're called in a couple of spots and then a blank comes on the turn. There'd be 700 in the pot; you'd have 1300 left, and it would be a tough decision if someone who has you covered pushes all-in. I'm kind of thinking that you might want to bet the pot (250) instead of 150. Not sure however.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
How would you play this on the flop MBE? bet out? or call?

If he had had you covered and you checked (or bet for that matter) and he had bet (or raised), would you move in? or is it just a matter of trying to see as many cards as cheaply as possible?

[/ QUOTE ]
These are really good questions, and I don't know the answers.

Praying Mantis -- what were the stack sizes of the other players in the hand?

If none of the other players were over T800 or so, I think I'd just push all in on the flop to begin with. It's risking T800 to win T250, but you don't really mind if you're called since you would have called all-in anyway. And it is much better than getting some of your chips in now, and having to put the rest in on the turn.

But if two or three of the players in the hand had me covered, it's much more difficult.

[PrayingMantis]

Stacks on the flop:

Me (SB) 1510, BB 2650, EP (short-stack) 710, MP 1440, Button (limper huge stack) 8510.


All of us except UTG (3385) saw the flop.

I bet T150 on the flop (into a 250 pot), because I expected someone behind me to bet if I check, probably short-stack, who was loose-aggressive post-flop, and huge stack too. And I figured betting here might actually diminish my cost on this draw. But I'm not sure it's the best move. I only felt that checking might induce a big bet from somebody.

Yes, I'm probably facing a problem if one of the bigger stacks raises me all-in, or something to that effect.

So, what's your opinion?

PrayingMantis

[La Brujita]

I don't know if your question was just for M.B.E. but I have two conflicting thoughts:

1. A pot sized bet seems a pretty good play here

2. Even thought I think it is a good play, a flat call and then a big bet on the turn kills you when a blank hits.

I don't know if it is a bad play but I usually push in with a true sf draw and take my chances if there is already significant money in the pot. It is one of those odd circumstances where you might well have the best of it betting x but have the worst of it putting less than x into the pot in two traunches if the turn is a blank. I think given the range of hands that might call it is usually a +ev play.

I don't know if you all recall but PLNLH discusses a very similar set of circumstances in explaining why a drawing hand is worse in pot limit than no limit. In pl there is no way to avoid this connundrum, in nl you have one way: to push in.

By the way, I don't mean to be pedantic by quoting sources in my threads. I just usually do it because (a) Ciaffone knows a heck of a lot more than me (b) I don't want to act like I magically thought of the ideas (c) most importantly, if you own the book you can pick it up and read what they say. If it is annoying I will stop doing it.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if it is a bad play but I usually push in with a true sf draw and take my chances if there is already significant money in the pot. It is one of those odd circumstances where you might well have the best of it betting x but have the worst of it putting less than x into the pot in two traunches if the turn is a blank. I think given the range of hands that might call it is usually a +ev play.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, to a point. In a tournament if you push in it really looks a lot like a draw, so you frequently do get calls from hands like top pair. Maybe not always (after all, when top pair folds, I never know that that's what they've folded), but frequently. And since the straight flush draw is about even against one pair, it's positive EV. But when the stacks are very large, it isn't hugely positive EV which makes me wonder if there are better options.

The other really nice thing about moving in, however, is there's a good chance an ace-high flush draw will fold. You don't know if an opponent has an ace-high flush draw, but if they do, it's hard for them to call all (or most) of their chips against you, getting pot odds of 4:3 or whatever.

So I still don't know. Suppose Praying Mantis had checked and then one of the big stacks moved in. I think this is close for Praying Mantis between calling and folding. But if Praying Mantis checks and then one of the big stacks bets the pot, I'd say it's pretty clear Praying Mantis needs to checkraise all-in. Although maybe that also is close between the checkraise and just calling.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if you all recall but PLNLH discusses a very similar set of circumstances in explaining why a drawing hand is worse in pot limit than no limit. In pl there is no way to avoid this connundrum, in nl you have one way: to push in.

By the way, I don't mean to be pedantic by quoting sources in my threads. I just usually do it because (a) Ciaffone knows a heck of a lot more than me (b) I don't want to act like I magically thought of the ideas (c) most importantly, if you own the book you can pick it up and read what they say. If it is annoying I will stop doing it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hey, you trying to say there's something wrong with being pedantic?

[La Brujita]

Good post. A couple of thoughts. First my push in is usually in the Party setting where the money is very shallow and there is often a significant amount in the pot relative to your stack size.

Second, I usually push more in the situation where i have have jh th and 9h 8h 3c flops so my overs may be good.

Third, I like the check raise here, the only problem is if everyone checks around and a blank hits on the turn. Then you are in a bit of trouble.

Fourth, frankly I think it is a bit of an uncomfortable hand to play because you just don't know exactly which cards are hurting you and which are helping you. If that is the case, and I think I have the best of it, I want my money in on the flop whether that be by a check raise or a bet out.

Finally, you are in good shape against top pair even without overs:

pokenum th 9h - - ac qd -- jh qh 2s

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Th 9h 553 55.86 437 44.14 0 0.00 0.559
Ac Qd 437 44.14 553 55.86 0 0.00 0.441

[M.B.E.]

La Brujita -- all good points. You're right that even without overs, the straight flush draw is a 56:44 favourite against Ac-Qd. When I ran it, I gave the other player the ace of hearts, so that the straight flush draw is only 52:48. But if he does have AQo, he's three times as likely not to have the ace of hearts. So yeah, even against stacks that have you covered, and even though the pot is small relative to your stack, you don't really mind being all-in with a 56:44 favourite.

I do take issue with your third point:

[ QUOTE ]
Third, I like the check raise here, the only problem is if everyone checks around and a blank hits on the turn. Then you are in a bit of trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think that's too much of a problem. If it happens, you can check-call a pot-sized bet on the turn, or fold if the turn bet is larger. You've given up your chance to take down the pot on a flop semibluff, and you might have given up the chance to see the river card, but in exchange you got a free card with a very nice draw. Especially in a tournament I think the one free card you got is quite valuable. The real downside is that if a heart comes, you won't get too much action unless someone else also has a flush (hopefully smaller than yours). But you should still get action if you hit a straight on the turn.

Change the problem around a bit: suppose all the stack sizes are the same, but now I'm on the button with Th-9h when the flop comes Qh-Jh-3s. I limped preflop, it's five-handed with 250 in the pot, and now everyone checks to me. Here I'm definitely checking to take the free card. Pushing all-in here might not be too bad, but I think checking is better. Betting the pot would be a bad play in this situation (for the reason you mentioned in your other post referencing PLNLP). If I check and then a blank comes on the turn and someone overbets the pot, I don't mind folding, knowing I'm an underdog, and happy I only lost T50 on the hand. (If someone bets the pot I'd probably call, figuring I'm about a 2:1 underdog and have implied odds.) Now this example isn't directly applicable to the actual hand where we're in the small blind. For one thing, Praying Mantis made a good point that if we lead with a small bet, it might well cause someone in later position just to call, when if we had checked they'd have put in a big bet.

[La Brujita]

M.B.E.,

You are correct, I was dead wrong on that third point because you love to get a free card here. I don't know what I was thinking. That being said, maybe the check raise is the best play.

In your hypothetical, the one advantage to betting is the bet might well buy you a free ticket to the river.

A bit funny but I was on a short stack 6 handed when writing a response to this thread. I got a free play in the BB hu with 84o. The flop came 8c 6h 5c and I pushed in (maybe a highly questionable play). The opponent turned over Ac 7c and I cursed him, this thread and my bad luck (but erased the message before I typed it).

[t_perkin]

[ QUOTE ]

Change the problem around a bit: suppose all the stack sizes are the same, but now I'm on the button with Th-9h when the flop comes Qh-Jh-3s. I limped preflop, it's five-handed with 250 in the pot, and now everyone checks to me. Here I'm definitely checking to take the free card. Pushing all-in here might not be too bad, but I think checking is better. Betting the pot would be a bad play in this situation (for the reason you mentioned in your other post referencing PLNLP). If I check and then a blank comes on the turn and someone overbets the pot, I don't mind folding, knowing I'm an underdog, and happy I only lost T50 on the hand. (If someone bets the pot I'd probably call, figuring I'm about a 2:1 underdog and have implied odds.)
[ QUOTE ]


Betting the pot in late position is a little different though, you have a lot more options. Here you have position, you make a bet in late position on the flop and you are likely to get checked to on the turn and you can take the free card then if you need it.
If on the other hand you have hit the flush your winnings are going to go up considerably, people are going to be check raising you all over the place figuring you for a made hand that they now have beat. (Of course they may have you beat, but this is no different than if you had checked on the flop or moved in on the flop.)
And if the heart comes and everyone is scared off, you have at least made some money with it.
And you do of course have the possibility of taking the pot right there on the flop.
If you make the straight on the turn I would be tempted to play weak and passive trying to induce a bluff check raise (especially from those flush draws).

Just some thoughts, not really sure if this is sensible or just plain silly. Just seems to me like there are a few more options available in late position.

Tim

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks fo the great points, all of you.

I'm getting convinced that all-in on the flop is maybe the right move, for the following reasons: Most of the time I'll win the T250 that's in the pot, and in the big minority of the cases I'll get called by TP, sets, 2 pairs and other draws, which I won't be far behind against, if not ahead. All in all, and very roughly, this looks like higher +CEV than most other moves, especially with bigger stacks around.

BUT, I must say I'm still not sure my under-betting the pot was bad, and I'm saying this after thinking, and not because I want to defend it. The reason it might be good, is because there's a desperate aggressive small-stack out there. Bigger stacks might not want to deal with me here, and fold, or call on the flop. But small stack is more likely to make a mistake and go-in, because the pot is big enough and he's sensing weakness.
If he's doing it, I'm getting the right odds to call.
If I check and he pushes, calling would probably be OK, but not good as if I bet first.
If I push first, and he calls, He might be getting the right odds, since I'm not such a big favorite over many holdings, as mentioned.

I know this is a bit problematic (it was discussed some time ago: whether it's reasonable to create +EV situations by building a pot that justifies calling raises), But I see some logic here.

To be specific, with his K7s of hearts, I actually DON'T get the right odds to call an all-in by him if I check to begin with, and I don't get them if I push and he calls (if I take in calculation he's going to call), but I do get them if I bet T150 first and he raises all-in, as what happened here.

On the other hand, I'm not sure this is making any sense...

Well, Only some thoughts,

PrayingMantis

[M.B.E.]

Good points, Tim. You're right that if one of the big stacks has something like KJ, they might well call your pot-sized flop bet and check to you on the turn (in the scenario where you're on the button). That would be to your advantage. On the other hand, if a big stack has QJ or AQ, they'll probably checkraise you all-in, which of course you'd call.

I still think I'd rather go all-in myself on the flop (making the KJ-type hand fold), and even more than that I'd rather just check the flop for the free card.

But you're right, betting the pot with the straight-flush draw when you're in last position is not as bad as I originally thought. If you had overcard outs as well as the straight flush (e.g. you have Th-9h and the flop is 8h-7h-3s) and are in last position and everyone checks to you, betting the pot might well be the way to go.

[t_perkin]

[ QUOTE ]

On the other hand, if a big stack has QJ or AQ, they'll probably checkraise you all-in, which of course you'd call.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think JQ and AQ should not be check raising with this rather dangerous looking flop - after all people like you are around trying to go for the free card /images/graemlins/smile.gif


I reckon this is a judgement call here - one to mix it up on - keep people guessing.

Tim

[M.B.E.]

Praying Mantis, I think you are employing some "fuzzy logic" in this latest post:

[ QUOTE ]
I know this is a bit problematic (it was discussed some time ago: whether it's reasonable to create +EV situations by building a pot that justifies calling raises), But I see some logic here.

To be specific, with his K7s of hearts, I actually DON'T get the right odds to call an all-in by him if I check to begin with, and I don't get them if I push and he calls (if I take in calculation he's going to call), but I do get them if I bet T150 first and he raises all-in, as what happened here.

[/ QUOTE ]
It isn't correct to bet solely for the purpose of manufacturing correct odds.

To demonstrate this, let's take an extreme example. You're holding 9-7 and the flop comes 8-5-2, so you have a gutshot. However, your opponent accidentally exposed his cards to you, and he has 8-8 for top set. The pot is 400 and you each have 400 left. You're first to act. If you check and your opponent moves in, you won't have odds to call. But if you bet out 250, and then your opponent raises all in, you'll be getting 7:1 pot odds so that a call would be correct. However, that doesn't make your initial bet correct. The cost to you of manufacturing the correct pot odds is more than they're worth.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Praying Mantis, I think you are employing some "fuzzy logic"

[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect you are right. That is something I do quite often, to compensate for my tendency to think "too" logically, which can also be harmful in poker.

However, I think I can show where this logic might work. I will not use a new example, but take yours, although I'll treat it differently.

[ QUOTE ]
You're holding 9-7 and the flop comes 8-5-2, so you have a gutshot. However, your opponent accidentally exposed his cards to you, and he has 8-8 for top set. The pot is 400 and you each have 400 left. You're first to act. If you check and your opponent moves in, you won't have odds to call. But if you bet out 250, and then your opponent raises all in, you'll be getting 7:1 pot odds so that a call would be correct. However, that doesn't make your initial bet correct. The cost to you of manufacturing the correct pot odds is more than they're worth

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, let's say you don't know what he has, but you know that if you push - he will only call with hands that beat you (i.e., you'll be between 4:1 to 2:1 dog). To make it simple, we'll say you'll lose 25% of the time, if you push and he calls. Most of the time you'll win the pot uncontested, of course.

But you know about this opponent, that if you bet 250, he'll raise you all-in with a much wider range of hands, many of them you might be even ahead (this is quite difficult when you hold 9-7 here, but in other examples it is possible). So your winning percentages here might be much more than 25%, if you bet, he pushes and you call (i.e., you both end all-in).

(I know that there's a problem, with the fact that my 250 bet is too close to an all-in, so it doesn't seem reasonable for the opponent to act so differently in these 2 cases [all-in vs. T250 bet], but I hope you'll forgive me.)

Of course, you also know that if you check he'll push with many hands and you'll have to fold. But in this case you'll have zero percentage of winning the pot uncontested.

I think that even if you call his all-in re-raise (2nd scenario) *every time*, against *certain* opponents (ones that call all-in only with very strong hands, but raise all-in almost everytime if they sense weakness), underbetting in this situation, and then calling, might be better than check/folding, or pushing. I am pretty sure it can be proved mathematically, or with some game-theory model, although not sure if this is completely appliable for a real game.

I hope this makes a little more sense, than just talking about "building the pot". Please criticise, if you're not tired of this thread yet... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

PrayingMantis