Flop Decision

I'm in a fairly loose 5-10 game at the Taj. Two limp to me in middle position and I limp along with T9s. A couple of folds, cutoff raises and both blinds, limpers and I all call.


6 players, 12 small bets.


Flop is A83 rainbow with one of my suit. We all check to the cutoff who bets, all four players call and it's on me.


I'm getting 17 to 1 on a call which closes the action and I've got backdoor straight and backdoor flush draws. Does anyone call here?


-Rube

First of all, I dont see any flop in middle position with J-9. Even though it may be a position raise, you still have to give him credit for at least A-10, or a pocket pair. You limped in with (almost) rags, that cost you two bets pre flop. Dont put yourself in the position where you have to catch runner-runners in a loose game. Punish thier loosness; don't participate in it. Anyone who disagrees please post under me with reason, because if I am wrong, and am giving poor advice, I want to know it.

First of all, Mark isn't wrong. But once you've gotten yourself into this position, perhaps you sensed a weak field and wanted to play this hand in a loose passive game, what do you do.


Here's what you are saying: Currently, you're getting 16 to 1 on a 17 to 1 draw. (This by itself is good information.) You have fair to good implied odds, because if you do hit, you stand to get paid off, but even if you do hit, you could get beat. Then you may get a card on the turn, forcing you to call another bet, at which time you will be getting between 4 to 1 to 5 to 1 odds on your call. So now you've had to call three small bets to make you draw which could, even in the event that you make it, lose.


I don't have an answer for you question. If this hand is profitable, it is only marginally so. It's probably best wait for more profitable situations.

Someone correct me if this is wrong:


You have 8 outs on the turn to get the straight draw, and then if you make that, you have another 8 outs on the river to complete the runner-runner straight. (This assumes you don't want to draw to a gutshot on the river.) That makes your odds of making the straight


(8/47)*(8/46)=1:34


When I add in the gutshot draw, it reduces down to 1:23 [(8/47)*(8/46)+(8/47)*(4/46)], not sure if that's right.


When I add in the flush, you add another (10/47*9/46), it suddenly becomes 12:1.


Therefore, the pot would be giving you correct odds to call.


Can someone let me know if these odds calculations are correct? If not, where is the mistake?

Just my opinion, but I think folding T9s in middle position after two limpers in a loose passive low limit game is playing too tight. Middle suited connectors can be very profitable in these types of games.


Now, I think folding on the flop is correct, even though this hand may be marginally playable. But I think you're giving up profit if you fold this hand pre-flop.


Thanks for the input.


-Rube

I have a question to tourists odds. Do you take into account at all that you aren't drawing to the nuts? Does that affect odds at all?

No, I am just calculating the odds of making any straight or any flush.

When you say that the odds are 16 to 1 on a 17 to 1 draw, you are only taking into account the current odds on the pot. You will very likely have to put in at least 1 more BB to see the river, so its more like 24 to 3 on a 17 to 1 shot. I think its unlikely that you are ever going to get in excess of 50 small bets into this pot with a nonnut draw, so I think you have to fold here.


Good Luck,

Bob T.

Two small problems, some of your outs you have counted twice. Some of the cards that make your straight also make your flush, but you have counted them twice - JT hearts.


However, if the next card is a J or T hearts (I think it was hearts...or was it diamonds???) both draws are alive. So im not sure how that should be accounted for in your analysis.


Also, you might have a 12-1 probability of hitting your draw, but its going to cost 1 and 1/2 bets (1 small and 1 big). I think this fact alone would probably prevent you from calling this bet.

i agree that the limp pre was fine...but the flop hit ya minimally. by calling you could get into a whole lotta trouble. what if a T hits. ya gonna see the turn?...this is an easy fold, save the money for the next hand and keep the decisions as simple as possible. what if ya get a str8 draw but it gets 2 or 3 bet on the turn? better yet what if it gets raised behind yer call on the flop? too much trouble possible for a crap flop...


just some thoughts


b

I believe your percentage is off slightly because of the way you counted the cards that make both a straight and flush draw. Also, it looks like you may have a slight error in the way you calculate odds vs. probability (see below).


This is my cut at calculating the odds.


There are two cards that will give you a open ended straight draw and a flush draw. When this happens, you have 15 outs on the river to make a straight or flush (7 for a flush, 6 for a straight, 2 for both a straight and a flush):


(2/47)x(15/46) = 30/2162


There are two cards that will give you a gutshut draw and a flush draw. When this happens, you have 12 outs on the river:


(2/47)x(12/46) = 24/2162


There are 6 cards that will give you only an open-ended straight draw. When this happens, you have 8 outs on the river:


(6/47)x(8/46) = 48/2162


There are 6 cards that will give you only a gutshot straight draw. This will leave you 4 outs on the river:


(6/47)x(4/46) = 24/2162


There are 6 cards that will give you only a flush draw. This will leave you 9 outs on the river:


(6/47)x(9/46) = 54/2162


Add these probabilities up:


(30+24+48+24+54)/2162 = 180/2162 = 8.326% chance of getting a straight or flush by the river.


To calculate the odds, you need to divide the chance of missing the draw by the chance of making the draw.


(100-8.326)/8.326 = 11:1 against making the draw.


I think you may be just dividing 2162/180 (equivalent to 100/8.326) to calculate the odds, which is incorrect. In this case it would be the difference between 12:1 and 11:1. Or, in another example, if an event has 50% chance of happening, the odds of it happening are 1:1 ((100-50)/50), not 2:1 (100/50).


Hope this helped and wasn't too long winded.

"Hope this helped and wasn't too long winded."


Not too long winded, and this was great. Your analysis was very complete and easy to follow. You are also right, I was not converting correctly from percentages to odds.


For the record, my method yielded 8.6%, which was slightly higher than yours, presumably because as JOJO pointed out, I was counting some situations twice.


Thanks again.

Using BJG's scenarios, there is a 1.2:1 chance of improving your hand at the turn. If your hand is improved at the turn, then the probability of drawing an out on the river ranges from 10.5:1 (gutshot) to 2.12:1 (straight or a flush).


So... after the flop you have 11:1 to make either a straight or a flush. If you do improve at the turn, your odds of making a hand at the river will range from 10.5:1 to 2.12:1.


At the flop, the pot is offering 16:1. At the turn it will likely offer about 10:1.


Now, the big question is, will the straight or the flush win the pot? I think they may. I say call the flop, if you improve on the turn then call it too, maybe not for the gutshot.

I'm pretty sure I would not call the flop. You need to put in a minimum of 1.5 BB to win a pot of maybe 10 or 11 BBs (depending on how the turn and river betting procede). This is only offering you 7:1 pot odds on a 11:1 draw.


In this specific case, your straight or flush will probably be good if you make it. The straight is almost certainly good since I don't know how KT can call the flop bet (all other straights are nut straight). Your flush is probably good, unless someone has Ax suited in your suit or has two pair (A8, A3) and one of your flush cards pair the board.


I think if you only had 1 SB left so that you were all in after the flop, you could call. Otherwise I would fold.

If I was playing this by the seat of my pants I would surely fold, but having had the odds calculated out for me, I claim this:


You're not putting 1.5 BB in the pot at the flop. You're putting in 0.5 BB for a very good chance (almost 50%) to improve your hand. If it doesn't improve at the turn, fold.


If it does improve, you will be getting at least 7:1 pot odds, maybe 9:1 if two of your five opponents stay in. If four of your five opponents stay in, you can even go for the gutshot.


Maybe I should change my name to "Fishy Tourist"? /images/smile.gif

I've been out of town for the past couple of days so I have not been able to post until now. I was actually thinking the same thing as I was on the airplane. I was bored so I worked out the numbers. It is very close either way. It all depends on how much money is in the pot at the end. If you stand to win 11 BB (8 from the first two betting rounds, an additional 3 from the last two), it has slightly positive expectation if your made hand always wins. If you only win 10 BB it has slightly negative expectation. If you need to call two bets on the turn but as a result you would win 14 BB when you make your hand, it is about 0 EV. I did not factor in the chance that you may lose with your made hand.


To calculate the EV, I took the chance that each event will occur (made flush when only flush draw occurs, missed flush when only flush draw occurs, no help on the turn, etc.) and multiply it by the amount you expect win or lose if that event occurs. Add them all up and you get your EV.


So, its your choice if you want to play the hand. If you want to put out an image of being a loose player, this would be a good hand with which to do it.

Thanks for your post, I appreciate the follow-up. It doesn't surprise me that it's a marginal decision. Of course, once you factor in the chance that a made hand might lose, probably it's better to fold, depending on your opponents.

Ok guys,


In my mind this was an easy fold on the flop, and I didn't really want to give it another thought. But at the same time, it produced a long thread, so there might have been more to it than first met the eye, so I took the problem to two players who I respect. The tighter of the two said 'fold, next hand', the one who's game is a little more dynamic said 'there is probably enough there to make a profit, especially since you are closing the action on the flop.


So I did a little more arithmatic, and this is what I found. The numbers for straights and flushes are in BJG's post above, in addition, if you make a pair on the turn, and have to call only 1 bet, the odds for making two pair or trips on the river are 1 to 10.2 and there will be that much in the pot when you have to call that bet.


19 out of 47 times you do not improve on the turn and lose 1 small bet.


Of the 1288 times that you do improve on the turn, 1078 times you do not improve on the river, and you lose 1 small bet, and 1 big bet on the turn.


That leaves 210 out of 2162 times that you improve both on the turn and the river, making a straight, flush, trips, two pair, or straight flush.


Lets say that the times that you improve on both, but still lose are about 1 out of 7, which is equivalent to the number of times that you are playing two pair or trips on the river, and each of those times, you lose 1 small bet, and 3 big bets.


Your costs for the hand expressed in small bets adjusted for the turn and river are:


don't improve on the turn = 874 small bets

improve on the turn, but not the river = 3234 small bets

improve on the turn, the river, and still lose = 350 small bets.


or a total of 4358 small bets.


Now, you're going to win the remaining 180 times, 180 divided into 4358 is a little bit less than 25 small bets.


There are already 17 small bets in the pot on the flop. If three opponents big bets go into the pot on the turn and 1 on the river, you will have enough to pay for this call.


If you might make more than that, you can make money, although only a little bit on this hand. Add in the value you get, by making what appears to be a lose and lucky play and I think you have a winner, especially since it will cost you 1 small bet most of the time.


It is also possible that the button will check the turn, maybe he has a pocket pair and with that many callers is now convinced that he is behind, or you may be going allin for 1 small bet, in that case, the pot only needs to be 11 small bets for you to be profitable here, and there are already 17 in there, so if the button might check the turn, go ahead and call happily.


If you were nearly allin, say with 1 big bet left, it would probably be a bad call, because there would be no chance of making any money on the river when you won.


Also, let's say sombody, the button for instance has a big ace in this scenario, if you had a dominated ace, you wouldn't be getting the proper odds to call on the turn because you would be getting about 1 to 11 or 12 on a 1 of 17 shot. On the other hand, if you have 1 lesser pair, you are on a 5 outer instead of a 3 outer, and you are more likely to come up with a probable winner. At the same time, if you hit your kicker when you were dominated, you are a little bit more likely to win. This makes it likely that on the turn, anybody with a lesser pair might call a single bet, and will help the pot grow to the size you need.


Makes you wonder though, the guy who ran you down with 8-3 offsuit, might have more value than the guy who was chasing you with AT off. hmmmm....


Good luck,

Bob T.