Huge $$ (not chip) leak ... bubble play

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

I have a HUGE real money leak. I'm ahead for the month, but this is consistently costing me win opportunities, and that leak is race situations at the bubble. Example:

$55 two-table SNG, five left (top four pay) and I'm the chip leader with ~5800, but very narrowly over 2nd, 3rd, and 4th who are all around 5000. Blinds are 200/400+25 antes. I have TT on the button. I make it 1200. SB (with about 4300) moves all-in. BB calls. And ... like an idiot ... I call.

SB has AJo. BB has 86s. An Ace falls at the river and I'm gutted. All-in on T7s next hand, hit for two pair, and the board makes a straight to split. All-in on AJ next hand, and called by 55 ... no help and I'm gone.

*sigh*

I really need to just stay out of race situations at the bubble. I could've laid down that hand and been virtually tied with the remaining players at around 4600, with plenty of chips to be dangerous and wait for good spots. Instead, like I've done WAY too many times lately, I tried to push a narrow edge, and got spanked.

Oh well. Live and learn.

Cris

[GoSox]

Join the club, I think this is a very common leak. People argue this point with me, but I think near the bubble your first priority is making the money. Especially if you are the chip leader. Once you're in the money, then you focus on winning first. Obviously this addresses the common leak you described. But, there is a second reason that used to be my major leak.

After playing for almost an hour to eliminate all those other players to make the money, many people expect the winner to be decided in the next five minutes and play accordingly. People change the play that got them there and start doing stupid things to win in the next ten hands.

I often am the short stack heading into the money and win or take first just by patience.

[William]

Before going to bed tonight, write a 1000 times:

IF I RAISE WITH A MEDIUM PAIR AND GOT RERAISED AND THERE IS AT LEAST A CALLER; MY MEDIUM PAIR IS NO GOOD AND I MUST FOLD MY HAND.

Please paste and copy the lines to this forum so we can all see that you have made your homework /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[CrisBrown]

Hiya William,

ummmmm ... I'm gonna run out of paper coz there are about five other things I gotta do the same thing with. But yes, you're right, and this is one I really have to work on. My bubble play has cost me probably three or four money chances this week, and while that doesn't seem like a lot, it can be the difference between a winning week and a break-even week.

Thanks for your help ... and you really have helped my game. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Cris

[chesspain]

This seems like a fairly similar situation to what I posted about earlier today:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=538155&page=0&view=ex panded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=

[William]

Can't see the similarity, you have to make a UTG decision, Cris is facing a reraise and a caller. Two very different situations.
(ok, you have both TT, that's the best I can concede /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

[CrisBrown]

Hi William and chesspain,

Yes, William, that's exactly the difference. chesspain could push (with a short stack and a good hand) UTG, and hope to take the blinds and get back in it. I'd raised and was reraised by a stack that could take a big chunk out of me, so I was better off laying it down.

Cris

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

Well, I just came through a bubble and did pretty well by applying a somewhat surprising principle from Sklansky's TPFAP: never raise with a hand where you'll mind a reraise.

I say "somewhat surprising" because it has an interesting twist. You raise on hands where you WANT a reraise (big pairs, AK, etc., depending on situation), but also on trash hands where you don't mind a reraise because it's easy to throw your hand away. As Sklansky puts it: "So again, do not raise in NLHE, especially in tournaments, if there is a reasonable chance that a reraise will make you throw up."

So rather than stealing with marginal hands where I wasn't going to like folding to a reraise, I started stealing with really junk hands. If I got reraised, I hemmed and hawed and thought and pondered, and mucked. If I got called and the trashy hand hit, I played it like AA. And of course I was also raising with the premium hands, so when I got the reraise that my opponents were used to seeing me fold to, I could set them all in with confidence.

It feels very weird raising on 200/400+25 blinds/antes with J5o, but again, if someone reraises ... it's easy to muck. And a lot of the time, they'll just fold rather than tangle with a large stack ... so I picked up a lot of small pots on the junky hands, keeping me alive and gaining on blinds, while I was waiting for the real monsters.

Anyway ... this is something I'm going to have to think a lot about, and experiment with some in my play. I can't really complain about the month's results (I've done very well), but I am working hard with PokerTracker and the great advice I get here ... trying to plug those leaks that cost me money.

Thanks to all.

Cris

[chesspain]

Cris,

If you were going to be the first one into the pot (other than the blinds), then wouldn't it have been better to either just fold or push all-in with your TT, especially if you did not want to face a reraise? If you had pushed all-in, it would have been much more difficult for the SB to call you with AJo, especially since he was not so short-stacked that he would need to be making a desparation call, especially if he respects the Gap concept. And once SB folds, you really can't be upset if BB is going to call heads-up with crap like 86s.

Although I was in third position out of four, in comparison to your nearly four way tie for first out of five, a similarity between our hands is that we both openraised the pot with TT, although I did not give my opponents a chance to reraise me. I simply pushed in, knowing that I had a better than 50% chance of doubling up if called.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya chesspain,

[ QUOTE ]
If you were going to be the first one into the pot (other than the blinds), then wouldn't it have been better to either just fold or push all-in with your TT, especially if you did not want to face a reraise? If you had pushed all-in, it would have been much more difficult for the SB to call you with AJo, especially since he was not so short-stacked that he would need to be making a desparation call, especially if he respects the Gap concept. And once SB folds, you really can't be upset if BB is going to call heads-up with crap like 86s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I think it would clearly be a mistake for me, as a narrow chip leader, on the bubble, to push in with TT. I'm going to raise with the hand -- I'd like to get the blinds -- but on the bubble it's a hand I need to lay down vs. an all-in reraise from a stack that can cripple me. In that situation, against good players, I'm probably only a coin-flip favorite, and I may be a huge underdog (to a bigger pair). I'd rather lose 3xBB here than lose the tournament.

Cris

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi All,

I have a HUGE real money leak. I'm ahead for the month, but this is consistently costing me win opportunities, and that leak is race situations at the bubble. Example:

$55 two-table SNG, five left (top four pay) and I'm the chip leader with ~5800, but very narrowly over 2nd, 3rd, and 4th who are all around 5000. Blinds are 200/400+25 antes. I have TT on the button. I make it 1200. SB (with about 4300) moves all-in. BB calls. And ... like an idiot ... I call.

SB has AJo. BB has 86s. An Ace falls at the river and I'm gutted. All-in on T7s next hand, hit for two pair, and the board makes a straight to split. All-in on AJ next hand, and called by 55 ... no help and I'm gone.

*sigh*

I really need to just stay out of race situations at the bubble. I could've laid down that hand and been virtually tied with the remaining players at around 4600, with plenty of chips to be dangerous and wait for good spots. Instead, like I've done WAY too many times lately, I tried to push a narrow edge, and got spanked.

Oh well. Live and learn.

Cris

[/ QUOTE ]

Cris,

Me too. I think I'm overcompensating against playing too weakly on the bubble (which is also a no-no), and it's
costing me.

I also once thought that it would be easier to bully people on the bubble because they're afraid of going out, but this seems to be costing me more than buying me anything.

eastbay

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I think it would clearly be a mistake for me, as a narrow chip leader, on the bubble, to push in with TT. I'm going to raise with the hand -- I'd like to get the blinds -- but on the bubble it's a hand I need to lay down vs. an all-in reraise from a stack that can cripple me. In that situation, <font color="red">against good players</font>, I'm probably only a coin-flip favorite, and I may be a huge underdog (to a bigger pair). I'd rather lose 3xBB here than lose the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]
Cris, if you had in fact been against good players, then Chesspain's advice of moving in with TT would be clearly correct. One away from the money, with the chip positions as stated, any good player in the blinds would not call an all-in raise from the chip leader except with QQ, KK, or AA. (Even QQ might be debatable.) The probability of running into one of those hands is only about 3%.

However, as it turns out the BB was a terrible player (calling the SB's all-in with 86), and it appears the SB wasn't very good either (reraising the chip leader with AJ). That makes your correct play in this situation much harder to figure out.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I think it would clearly be a mistake for me, as a narrow chip leader, on the bubble, to push in with TT. I'm going to raise with the hand -- I'd like to get the blinds -- but on the bubble it's a hand I need to lay down vs. an all-in reraise from a stack that can cripple me.

[/ QUOTE ]


Cris,

I was surprised to read the above, since you had posted two hours earlier the difficulty with openraising a hand with which you would hate to face a reraise. If you are that afraid of busting out on the bubble, then maybe you should just let this hand go. Indeed, what would your plan have been if you had only been called, and then had to play on a flop with one or two overcards?

Whereas I realize that you have much more experience than I playing NL tournies, I've come to expect that one just has to accept the luck factor. Indeed, if you had KK (instead of TT), you would have busted out the same way to an AJ lucky suckout. I assume you would not have complained about your play in that case, am I correct?

[CrisBrown]

Hiya M.B.E.,

[ QUOTE ]
However, as it turns out the BB was a terrible player (calling the SB's all-in with 86), and it appears the SB wasn't very good either (reraising the chip leader with AJ). That makes your correct play in this situation much harder to figure out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not entirely sure either of these is true. Let's take them one at a time....

The BB was very short-stacked (~700 after posting), and getting ~7:2 on his call. He probably figured I'd fold, leaving him heads-up, with dead money in the pot, on what figured to be two live cards (a ~2:1 dog). That's a good situation for a short stack with more than one-third of his stack already in the pot. I can't fault his play there.

As for the SB's reraise, while AJs is one of those hands that TPFAP says you don't want to raise with -- because you'll hate a reraise -- it's not a bad reraising hand. Consider what you want in a reraising hand. You're likely going to be all-in, and there's a good chance your opponent will fold to your reraise, so you want a hand that runs well hot-and-cold and will win at least one-third of the time when called.

AJs will win or chop about one-third of the time vs. AK, AQ, KK, QQ, and JJ, almost half the time vs. lower pairs, and about two-thirds of the time against weaker Aces or live cards. Looking at the range of open-raising hands, and factoring in the probability of the raiser folding to your reraise, AJs does well enough to be a good reraising hand ... even though it's not a great open-raising hand.

So I can't really fault the SB's all-in reraise either. He was playing the Gap Concept all-in with a good hot-and-cold hand, and it paid off for him.

Cris

[CrisBrown]

Hiya chesspain,

[ QUOTE ]
Whereas I realize that you have much more experience than I playing NL tournies, I've come to expect that one just has to accept the luck factor. Indeed, if you had KK (instead of TT), you would have busted out the same way to an AJ lucky suckout. I assume you would not have complained about your play in that case, am I correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right; I wouldn't have questioned my play with KK. But KK would have been a 2:1 favorite there, a large enough overlay to justify the risk at the bubble. TT was only a narrow favorite, and might well have been a big underdog in that situation.

[ QUOTE ]
I was surprised to read the above, since you had posted two hours earlier the difficulty with openraising a hand with which you would hate to face a reraise. If you are that afraid of busting out on the bubble, then maybe you should just let this hand go. Indeed, what would your plan have been if you had only been called, and then had to play on a flop with one or two overcards?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about this a lot last night. In the section on NLHE tournaments, TPFAP talks specifically about the danger of hands like TT. Sklansky writes:

[ QUOTE ]
The reason for this section's title [Don't Turn Good Hands into Seven-Duece] is that beginning no-limit players make a common mistake, putting in fairly big bets or raises before the flop with hands that are very good, but not so good as to welcome a reraise. The problem is that these big bets will almost never be flat-called.

Usually they will steal the pot. Maybe even often enough to show a profit. But when they don't, they get reraised big time. So big that you usually have to fold. But that is very sad when your hand is something like TT or AQs. These are hands that might have won a big pot had you not played them that way.

Yes, it's true that a raise might win the pot instantly often enough to make it worth doing. If so, go ahead and do it with 72o , not AQs. Either way you will have to fold if reraised. But if you do it with AQs, you have in fact made it no better than 72o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, what Sklansky leaves out is what "other way" you might have played TT or AQs. AQs isn't a bad limp-reraise hand (see my post to M.B.E. in this thread about reraising with AJs), but I'm leery of limp-reraising with TT, as it is too often dominated by hands that would call a reraise. And after the first couple of rounds, it's not likely that you're going to get into a pot with only a limp.

So ... what DO you do with TT? It seems like too strong a hand to just throw away; even TPFAP implies that you ought to find a way to play the hand. If you raise, planning to muck to a reraise, you've wasted it. If you limp, you are likely to be raised, and then you're faced with a decision of whether to call, and how to play the hand if you do see the flop. If you push all-in, you'll only get called by the hands that are likely to crush you, or at best to which you're a narrow favorite. I dunno....

Ideas?

Cris

[Stoneii]

Rather than just play the hand then, is it best to play position with it. I'm thinking, limp in EP and get out cheaply to big reraise, raise in CO/Button to limpers and raise if short handed/late in tournie?

stoneii

[CrisBrown]

Hiya Stoneii,

Not a bad idea. Thanks. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Cris

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]

You're right; I wouldn't have questioned my play with KK. But KK would have been a 2:1 favorite there, a large enough overlay to justify the risk at the bubble. TT was only a narrow favorite, and might well have been a big underdog in that situation.


[/ QUOTE ]

Cris,

The fact that you only had the blinds remaining to act after you makes it very unlikely that you would be against a higher pocket pair--if so, oh well.

Maybe all of this comes down to the relative importance for you of simply making it into the money vs. having a better than 50% chance of either stealing the blinds or nearly doubling up if called, with the latter result cutting the field to four and greatly improving your chances of finishing either first or second.

Furthermore, given the relatively tight window of chip positioning of the others, you could have easily slid down the ladder over the next few orbits if you had received no decent hands to play.

I think that the mistake you made was betting close to 20% of your stack on a hand that would hate to have to call a reraise. Either folding or pushing all-in would have been better.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Hiya M.B.E.,

[ QUOTE ]
However, as it turns out the BB was a terrible player (calling the SB's all-in with 86), and it appears the SB wasn't very good either (reraising the chip leader with AJ). That makes your correct play in this situation much harder to figure out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not entirely sure either of these is true. Let's take them one at a time....

The BB was very short-stacked (~700 after posting), and getting ~7:2 on his call.

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't realize this. I inferred from your first post in this thread that the BB was one of the players with around 5000, and the SB was in fifth place with 4300.

[ QUOTE ]
As for the SB's reraise, while AJs is one of those hands that TPFAP says you don't want to raise with -- because you'll hate a reraise -- it's not a bad reraising hand. Consider what you want in a reraising hand. You're likely going to be all-in, and there's a good chance your opponent will fold to your reraise, so you want a hand that runs well hot-and-cold and will win at least one-third of the time when called.

[/ QUOTE ]
In certain situations I agree that reraising all-in with AJ is a good play, but this definitely is not one of them.

First, the SB has no particular reason to think you'll fold to his reraise. You've just put in 20% of your stack on a raise, and it's only T3100 more for you to call, and you have him covered. Sure you might fold, but the SB is making a mistake to think you probably will. And if you do call, AJ is probably an underdog to your hand. So the SB is taking a big risk of busting out in fifth place, just out of the money.

Second, considering that the BB is so short-stacked, the SB really does not want you to fold. The SB should prefer that you stay in the hand, at least until the flop, to maximize the probability of the BB being eliminated.

As I see it, after you raise to 1200 preflop, the SB has two reasonable options:

(a) fold,

(b) call, expecting the BB to call, and then move in if the flop is A-high or J-high, otherwise checkfold.

Either of these options is much better than the SB's actual play of moving in.

Also, the fact that the BB was so short-stacked means that you would have been much better off moving in on the button with TT in my view, rather than raising 3xBB.