Snap a bluff or fold?

[dirty_dan]

Full 3/6 at Party. MP1 has been seeing over 50% of the flops. No real read other than that. (Gotta stop playing multiple tables)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO-1 folds, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.5 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (5.5 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero ...


Did the turn check induce a bluff or do I fold my ace high? The pot is only 6.5BB.

Was my preflop raise to isolate ok? Should I have checked the flop?

[eh923]

The isolation was a good play. That guy probably sucks if he's seeing 50%. However, in a small pot, you can fold this no problem since it isn't heads up.

[SpiderMnkE]

You fold your A high for sure. Two things can be going on here.

1. MP1 wanted to checkraise his flush on the turn and is now value betting.

2. MP1 has some kind of pair whether it be a PP or a piece of the flop. You just told him your overcards missed.. and he is now value betting again.

[Nate tha' Great]

You need your bluff to work approximately 19% of the time for it to be profitable. By my estimation, it will work approximately 0.0019% of the time.

[dirty_dan]

Nate, I wasn't looking to bluff-raise. I was wondering about calling MP1's potential bluff.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Nate, I wasn't looking to bluff-raise. I was wondering about calling MP1's potential bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, okay. If MP is indeed seeing over 50% of flops, then I think I'd probably call, hoping that he has 98 or just some random crap overcards. I think people are too quick to assume that MP was lying in wait with his turned flush. The flop was pretty raggy, and players who see 50% of flops will take one off with just about anything. They'll also bluff with just about anything when they sense weakness because the only way they can survive whilst seeing that many flops is to develop those sorts of skills.

I think you also might have considered betting the turn.

It might seem counterintuitive, but the scarier the turn card - and this is a scary turn card - the more succesful you will be in getting your opponents to fold by following through with a bet, even if it doesn't help your hand whatsoever. I would expect both opponents to fold at least 25% of the time.

So I think two lines of play are okay here:

1. Check the turn through, call one river bet unless it would be an overcall or a fourth suited card hits on the river.
2. Bet the turn but don't put any futher money into the pot.

However, I think going into check-fold mode on the turn in raised pot against two opponents would be weak.