A Tough decision on the bubble

[PrayingMantis]

Hi,

It's a 22$ 2-tables SNG. We're last 5, 4 see the money. Stacks: 16460, 3880, 3090, 2160, 1410.

Yes, I'm 5th.

Blinds 400/800, ante 50. I'm BB, which leaves me w/T560 after posting. SB is 2nd stack. I hold 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Now, Huge-stack is UTG, and he's going all-in. He can do it with anything, and I mean ANYTHING, including 84s.

MP (3090) folds. Button, (2160) calls. He must have something, because this guy is not a very loose caller, and I assume he had noticed how short I am. He must be pretty confident he can beat UTG here, although there's a chance he puts UTG on complete garbage, and calls with only a better than mediocre hand. He's not a very very good player, I think, anyway.

SB folds.

If I fold, and button takes it, I'm left with 560, which is barely enough to cover the SB. I'll probably be out on the bubble. If I fold and UTG wins (with some kind of a bad-beat, probably) I'm in the money.

If I call, I have some chance to triple-up, and make a comeback here. As I said, I won't be completely surprised if my hand is better than big-stack's.

What's your move?

PrayingMantis

[ohkanada]

I think you have a call.

Based on what you said, more often than not button will beat UTG and you will be left with almost nothing. If you call and win you immediately jump into 2nd place.

Ken Poklitar

[Stoneii]

If you think button is going to beat UTG then I'd join in for a triple up chance. Otherwise as you say yourself, it's bubble time. Call.

Edit - I just realised my comments seem to slightly echo those of ohkanada - should read first - apologies /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[LetsRock]

I think I'd be inclined to let them fight it out and hope that big stack somehow wins.

Even though you're short, you do have enough to sit through the SB and see another orbit of cards. True you won't be able to gain much if you do hit a hand, but you're giving the other guys a chance to mix it up a few more times.

If big-stack loses, he's likely to go on tilt which would open your door a bit wider for his bust out.

If big-stack wins you're in the money. You have a 50% chance of ending up in the money.

If you go in and lose you're guaranteed no money regardless of which of them wins and you only have a 33% chance of staying alive.

With a better hand, I'd consider trying to triple up, but with 87o, you're looking for big help on the board to beat both random hands. They're not both likely to be crap.

Even though your stack is small, you're not out of it yet. I say give them a chance to let you in the money.

Against one of them, I'd probably shove it in, but not against both.

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for the replies.

As much as I think about it, I realize calling was indeed the right move in that situation and with my read. I can't say I'm 100% sure of it, but I made some $EV calculations, and my conclusion is that I make more real $$ here by trying to triple-up or bust, than by folding and probably dwindling away on the bubble.

But at the point it was very difficult for me to join the pot with that 87o. It was against my "poker instincts", to call after 2 all-in's, with such a hand, knowing I'm probably way behind. But now I think calling was better, and two of your replies made that point too.

However, at the game I folded, hoping for button to bust.
UTG had 94s (!), and button had AQo. Pretty much what I'd expected (although I'm not sure button's call was good. Any thoughts?). Flop came: 4Qx, giving button a higher pair (I said goodbye), but the river was the beautiful 4, which gave UTG a set, busted button, and made me 36$ (prize for 4th place). So I got lucky. Crazy hand


PrayingMantis.

[Bozeman]

Let's estimate $EV for even players: If you call and win, your stack is worth .243xprizepool if UTG beats button, ~.22 if button survives. If you lose 0. If you fold and UTG wins, .127 (you almost alway get .1 for 4th), if you fold and button wins, ~.04.

Now, I suspect you will win 20-25% against a random hand and the decent hand button's got (you get 25% wins against a random hand and A9s+,KTs+,QJs+,JTs,AT+,KJ+,88+ and 20% against random + AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AK), and button will win 67-75% against UTG for the ranges given above, but will win slightly less often when you win since cards that help him beat you will also help him beat UTG, so $EV(calling)~.20or.25*(.3*.243+.7*.22)= .045-.057 . For folding, you will do better than .057 if button wins less than y: .04 y + .127 (1-y)=.057 => y=.80. Unless utg is massively dominated (xy against xx, x>y), you will make money by folding, so I think it is obviously the correct play.

Caveats:
You have to put in your stack on the SB next hand, essentially, so you will be in a -CEV situation, so the .04 and .127 will be slight overestimates.
Button may do this with more hands since he is likely to be a favorite over UTG and he only loses ~600 chips if you beat him. However, now he is the definite small stack. Anyway, extra hands that still have two overcards to you don't change your win prob. much.
If you are considerably better than the remaining players, that difference will be more useful if you have 5000 chips than 500.

It is, as I expected, a close decision, but folding seems more likely to be correct. Congratulations,
Craig

PS The flat nature of the payouts in 2 table tourneys contributes to this conclusion.

PPS If there is additional psychological value to you of winning (or going out fighting), it could swing the balance the other way since this is not a clearcut certainty.

[PrayingMantis]

Craig,

I really appreciate your thinking and EV analysis of this hand. This is not something you see here very often, and it's very important for me, and I guess for other not-very-expirienced-players, to have a thorough grasp of it.

I have one question, though, and it's probably the most basic one. I completely understand your over-all calculation, except for your precise evaluation here of stack's worth in relation to prize pool. So, can you please elaborate a little on the numbers in this paragraph, and how did you come out with them?

[ QUOTE ]
If you call and win, your stack is worth .243xprizepool if UTG beats button, ~.22 if button survives. If you lose 0. If you fold and UTG wins, .127 (you almost alway get .1 for 4th), if you fold and button wins, ~.04.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks a lot,

PrayingMantis

[Bozeman]

I have spent a fair amount of effort compiling and expanding others efforts in this regard. While some may complain about the equal skill premise, I think it is an excellent starting point, enough that I use an effective equal player stack (>actual stack) to approximate a skill advantage.

Those who haven't seen the posts on this I refer to:
TourneyFinishProbability (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=probability&Number=369811& Forum=All_Forums&Words=malmuth%20method&Match=Enti re%20Phrase&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Old=6months&Main =369811&Search=true#Post369811)
FourWayResults (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tourn&Number=519924&Forum= All_Forums&Words=malmuth%20model&Match=Entire%20Ph rase&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Old=3months&Main=519924 &Search=true#Post519924)
Examination of a SNG situation (by allenciox) (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=genpok&Number=429203&Forum =All_Forums&Words=malmuth%20model&Match=Entire%20P hrase&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Old=3months&Main=42920 3&Search=true#Post429203)
3waySNGallin (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tourn&Number=415745&Forum= All_Forums&Words=test%20your%20intuition&Match=Ent ire%20Phrase&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Old=6months&Mai n=415745&Search=true#Post415745)

Now this is not particularly earth shattering computation, and it's results are only somewhat poker relevant, but it is nice to have good numbers when you want them.

Craig

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks Craig,

Now I have some homework to do. I guess I was home sick when you taught it in class... /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

PrayingMantis

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Fold. There's no guarantee the BS won't beat both of you here. Your best chance of making the money is sitting this one out. Next hand, you may actually get the chance to go against one other random hand and give yourself another orbit.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

although I'm not sure button's call was good. Any thoughts?

Considering the size of your stack, his call is horrible even if he's been paying as much attention as you have to UTG's hand selection.