5/10 Pacific BB hand - Whats your river plan ?

[Tosh]

I have 65 /images/graemlins/club.gif in the BB.

EMP and MP limper, SB folds, I check.

Flop comes K /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif.

I bet, EMP folds, MP calls.

Turn 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

I bet MP calls.

River 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Whats your play / plan ?

[Tosh]

Btw none of my opponents are really known to me.

[JohnShaft]

Tosh I think I would rather check/call than bet.
I don't see much chance of you being bluff raised but I do see a fair chance that a worse hand will bluff if you check,
and almost no chance a better hand will fold if you bet.
Also I believe a better hand that would call might not bet. And there's not many worse hands that will call your bet anyway.

If the river was a blank then I'd bet, but you have enough now to call to beat a bluff.

My guess is your opponent had a Jack. A further guess is you bet and he called, and you now aren't sure about the bet.

[JP2k1]

Personally, I'd put him on a pair of jacks, or maybe kings with a bad kicker. He *may* also be on the club draw, or have something like QT, but if that were the case you may very well have seen a raise on the flop to buy a card. If you think there's a chance this guy was either drawing or will fold if bet into when he has a suboptimal hand, you might bet the river as a semi-bluff. If you don't think he'll fold to a bet, though, I'd just check and fold if he bets.

[JohnShaft]

Hi, JP, welcome to 2+2 and the SS forums.

If you think there's a chance this guy was either drawing or will fold if bet into when he has a suboptimal hand, you might bet the river as a semi-bluff
If he was drawing (and therefore missed) a bet likely accomplishes nothing as he should fold, but a check may, as he may bluff himself. And any sub-optimal hand he will fold you likely beat.

Also you can't bet the river as a semi-bluff. A semi-bluff, by definition, is a bluff that is done when all of the cards aren't out, and you have a chance of improving.
You can only _bluff_ on the river.

I also wouldn't check and fold. If you think he may have been drawing then you have to be prepared to call a bluff that you may have induced by showing weakness.
Unless you are pretty sure that your opponent is passive, and non-bluffy, enough to have at least a Jack or King here you really shouldn't check-fold now imo.

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi, JP, welcome to 2+2 and the SS forums.

If you think there's a chance this guy was either drawing or will fold if bet into when he has a suboptimal hand, you might bet the river as a semi-bluff
If he was drawing (and therefore missed) a bet likely accomplishes nothing as he should fold, but a check may, as he may bluff himself. And any sub-optimal hand he will fold you likely beat.

Also you can't bet the river as a semi-bluff. A semi-bluff, by definition, is a bluff that is done when all of the cards aren't out, and you have a chance of improving.
You can only _bluff_ on the river.

I also wouldn't check and fold. If you think he may have been drawing then you have to be prepared to call a bluff that you may have induced by showing weakness.
Unless you are pretty sure that your opponent is passive, and non-bluffy, enough to have at least a Jack or King here you really shouldn't check-fold now imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Being new to poker, this seems pretty smart to me. I have real trouble with these types of situations and I plan on using this line of thinking. Thanks!

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

I'm with JohnShaft on this one. I can't see many worse hands here that will call if you bet, but checking may induce the busted flush draw to take a stab at it.

[Jeremy'sSpoken]

What about betting and folding to a raise if you are sure he will not raise on a draw. It is 1 bet either way but he may fold a weak hand similar to the one opponent is now betting, for example a PP he was hoping to improve or perhaps he was also on the flush draw but paired up as well, this assumes both hands beat the pair of 5's. As long as you are sure he will not raise on a bluff you are giving him a chance, perhaps small, to lay down a better hand. I agree that folding here is probably a mistake.

I would think the other determining factor is what are the chances that he checks a better hand thus saving you the one bet. I would think that based on his play of the hand a check-check is likely. If so does this make the check the highest EV play. Is there a formula to determine the highest estimate EV play here.

Thanks,
Blade

[Haupt_234]

I would definitly check in this situation, and call a river bet only if I knew my opponent was capable of bluffing when induced.

I find it unlikely that in HU action, one would hold on to a smaller pocket pair in hopes of improvement and dump it to one additional bet on the river when unimproved, so I don't really agree with a river bet in this situation.

The pair of fives at the end will give you protection only to checking and showing down against another busted flush draw/straight draw, which seems to be the only hope for this hand. I would check/call, and see what the player shows me. Paying for this information may help you in later hands.

[Tosh]

Ok my thinking was basically everything that JohnShaft said and I checked intending to call. He checked too and MHWG.

I posted as I wanted to see if anyone would make a case for another line of play. I was especially interested if there was any case at all for a value bet.

[JTrout]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it unlikely that in HU action, one would hold on to a smaller pocket pair in hopes of improvement and dump it to one additional bet on the river when unimproved, so I don't really agree with a river bet in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's early, and I haven't had coffee yet, so forgive me if I'm confused, but...

Isn't this the reason you SHOULD bet? If the the opponent is holding a pocket pair, or one pair of any kind, isn't he likely to call the river bet? Hopeing you were betting a draw that didn't make it? Some opponents will call this river bet w/ A high.

And, IF the opponent has one pair, and you check, he is likely to check as well.

I bet this river.

But I'm pretty sure John is a better player than me, so maybe you should ignore this entire post! /images/graemlins/grin.gif