How many queens in this deck?

[Guy McSucker]

PokerStars $30 two-table SNG. Early stages, blinds 15-30, most players have around 1500, as do I.

I pick up QQ in early position and open for 90. Next player makes it 320. Folded to me, I push in, and he folds. I make a note that this guy might be able to play a little.

A few hands later, I pick up QQ again. Player to my right opens for 90. I make it 300. Folded to my opponent who pushes in for 1000 more. I have him covered by 300 or so.

Call or fold? Why?

Guy.

[Guy McSucker]

I call, because I've got QQ for goodness' sake. Even if the reraiser has to have AA, KK or AK, I'm almost getting pot odds to call, and if there's any chance of AQ or a smaller pair, I'm in good shape.

It turns out that he has KK. From here, there is only one way to play it: catch a Q on the river. Which I did.

Guy.

[M.B.E.]

"Even if the reraiser has to have AA, KK or AK, I'm <font color="red">almost</font> getting pot odds to call"

Guy -- why "almost"? I think you are getting better than correct pot odds. 4/7 of the time you're about a 55% favourite, 3/7 of the time you're an underdog at about 20%; the weighted average is 40%, which means you just need 1.5:1 pot odds. Right? And in this situation you were getting 1735:1000.

[Guy McSucker]

MBE,

You're right. I did work out these odds properly a long time ago, when I was playing a lot of PL tournaments. I decided back then that you can call an all-in raise in PL because 2:1 is more than enough, and forgot the actual numbers. Today I reran the calculation in my head, and underestimated (e.g. used 50% for QQs chances against AK, and figured QQ vs AA as a 5:1 shot, which is wrong too).

Apologies for misinformation, and thanks for setting me straight.

Guy.