AKo against a mini-raise

[PrayingMantis]

22$ 2-tables SNG, final table, we're last 9. I'm pretty low w/1530, 7th place. Blinds 75/150.
I hold AKo in CO-1. All fold to the CO-2 (T3740), who mini-raises to 300. Now I've been stealing his limps a few times, when going all-in behind him. Now I suspect a trap, but I'm not sure. He probably knows I'm ready to go-in, and he might be trying to induce it. So, he can have a monster hand, or pp, or Ax. I don't have a strong read on him, except that he likes to limp. The 2 tables have just collapsed into one.

What is your move? I see here 2 options - the stop-and-go (calling and betting/calling the flop, no matter what) vs. All-in PF. Would calling and folding to a big-bet, if the flop doesn't hit me, is an option too?

PrayingMantis

[Stagemusic]

Well, I am going to be wrong but I would call and then make my move if the flop is kind. If the flop stinks I can get out of the hand to a big bet with a few bets left in my stack. I'm thinking position is your friend in this case. But, as I said, I am going to be wrong. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Stoneii]

Hi Praying

If I were he, and had the monster, and you had been stealing my limps by regularly going all-in behind me, then I may be more tempted to limp again to trap you if I suspected you were itching to pull the trigger, not min raise to draw attention.

I reckon he figured it may be a cheap way to try and stop you raising all-in behind him and putting him on a decision?

I'd guess Ax, but then my problem is, I can't get enough people to think like me /images/graemlins/wink.gif

G'Luck

stoneii

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for the replies, Stage and Stone.

I decided to go for the All-in. All folded, and to my surprise, the mini-raiser took his time before calling. So, stone, you were actually right, he didn't have a monster.
Finally he called with 77. I didn't improve and busted.

I promise I'll try some other move next time, and tell you how it went. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

PrayingMantis

[Utah]

Simple - Push in.

First, you cant worry about him having a monster. There are only two hands he can have that you worry about AA and KK. If he has one of these two - oh well.

Second, with a short stack a push in looks like a desperation play to double up. Therefore, on your luckier days, he will call with a weak A. Especially if you have been stealing a lot from him.

A,K is a premium hand to double with when you are short stacked.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya P.M.,

I'd push in here every time. Make him decide how well he likes his hand. With a small pair -- what he had -- he's either a slight favorite or a huge underdog, and the better play is to fold rather than doubling up a short stack and cutting his own stack in half. You win every time he folds and almost half of the times he calls. With a weaker A or K, you win every time he folds, and 75-80% of the times when he calls. With two live cards, you win every time he folds and about 60% of the times when he calls.

In short, you're either a slight underdog or a big favorite, and pushing in is definitely the right play.

Cris

[LetsRock]

I'm leaning towards the play it safe camp. Cold-call and see the flop.

You have position, so you can react to his flop bet. If you get an A or K you can then shove it in. If the flop misses, but has another high card (Q or J) you can consider moving in if he doesn't bet aggressively. If he does, let it go and keep playing.

By shoving it in PF, you eliminate any chance you have of outplaying him postflop - it's now a lottery. I don't hink you're quite against the wall (but getting close) so I'd prefer to couple more hands than to shove it in on a drawing hand, as good as it is.

[ohkanada]

All-in. You are happy if he calls (gives you a chance to double up when you are a short stack) and happy with the pot if he folds.

If you really suspect a trap then fold, because would you really be happy with either an A or a K?

Ken Poklitar

[AleoMagus]

I think whatever you do here, you have to see the whole board with this hand.

For me, this means moving in preflop. I like this because of what has already been said in this thread. You win outright a lot and you aren't going to be far behind if you get called. You might even be way ahead.

You might also just call and then move in no matter what. This is a good play against small pairs and high cards. This guy would might question his sevens if any overcard falls and you push. I still dislike this strategy without a pair myself, and I usually only do this with a PP.

The worst thing you can do here in my opinion, is to just call and fold if the flop is unfavorable. The reason I say this is that AK loses so much of it's value when you do this. Sure it is pretty much a coin flip against PP's when you see the whole board, but when you are just letting yourself see the flop, you will lose a significant portion of the time.

I always want full value for AK because it really is a great hand. For me, this means getting all-in PF (There are a lot of times that I wouldn't CALL an all-in in this situation, but if I can do the pushing, I will)

Regards,
Brad S

[ThaSaltCracka]

If your worried about the trap you should call. There are several reasons why I like that play.
1. if he is trapping atleast you get to see the flop cheaper than by going all in.
2. your call on the min raises could induce him to check to you on the flop, thus giving you a free card, if needed.
3. It gives you the option to walk away from the hand on the flop if needed, without being pot commited.
I think calling is good also because you wouldn't be in that bad of shape if you had to fold on the flop. T1200ish is still a nice stack to push around.

[ohkanada]

As I said in my original response, if you are afraid of a trap what is the point of calling? If he is trapping with either AA or KK, then with your AK, you are happy with AAA, KKK or QJT. Any other flops don't look to good. Muck if you are confident he is trapping! A small pair is much nicer to just call against a possible trap. Easy to muck if you miss and if you hit you are happy to get all-in.

Ken Poklitar

[ThaSaltCracka]

With two live cards, you win every time he folds and about 60% of the times when he calls.
I thought the odds for two over cards against a pocket pair were roughly 54-46%, in favor of the pocket pair.
I still think calling is the best play. With him calling, if the flop came anything like 4x-9x-Qx or 2x-Tx-Jx, his opponent may be inclined to check to PM, thus with a bet by PM he could take it down.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya Salt,

I'd covered that earlier.

* vs. a pocket pair, he wins 100% of the times when his opponent folds, and ~47% of the times when his opponent calls.

* vs. another Ace or King, he wins 100% of the times when his opponent folds, and ~75-80% of the times when his opponent calls.

* vs. two live cards (e.g.: QJ, JT, etc.), he wins 100% of the times when his opponent folds, and ~60% of the times when his opponent calls.

In short, he's either a small underdog (vs. a pocket pair) or a big favorite (vs. a lower Ace or King, or two live cards). In only a tiny fraction of cases -- 1:111 -- is he a significant underdog (to AA or KK).

That looks like a move-in situation to me.

Cris

[William]

I too think this is an all-in situation. it's ok you think he might be trapping you, but the chance that he has gotten a hand to do it, is just too small.
Anyway all the reasons why you should move in have been mentionned(along with some numbers, to clarify the situation) so that is not the interesting part of this hand. What I find interesting is how people reason when considering just to call.

Let me explain; the general though here seems to be that if you just call and see the flop, you have position on him and can move in after the flop to scare him and pick up the pot.
Let me tell you that in this situation, against any good player, you DON'T have position. What is going to happen, is that he is going to bet the flop, no matter how it looks, and if you haven't hit an A or a K, you are going to start looking for your crystal ball.
You could of course choose to get off the hand, knowing that you probably were bluffed and hoping for a come back with your small stack. I'm sure you will be wondering for a long time about those 2 cards you never saw.

So forget about position, in this kind of situations the advantage is to the player who can act first, not to the one who will be hating himself for not pushing his stack in when he had a chance to do so.

Take care,
William

[ThaSaltCracka]

you have position on him and can move in after the flop to scare him and pick up the pot.
this is not what I thought or my rational was, I was just trying to say if he was trapping, which he could do with any pair above T, IMHO, then you could call to see the flop for relatively cheap, compared to going all in. Then if you don't like the flop, fold to the bet, or if he checks, which is also likely if he is trying to trap you, you can check as well.

[Pitcher]

Hi All,

If someone calls my min raise and only a couple people are in the pot I am gonna bet out on the flop no matter what. To me, if I min raise, it is a probe to see what others have. If they just call, I am not real impressed. I am gonna bet fairly big right off (especially if no A or K hit the board, depending on what I have). Now what about your A K that doesn't hit the flop most of the time? Not a good situation. Go all in.

Pitcher

[ThaSaltCracka]

Now what about your A K that doesn't hit the flop most of the time? Not a good situation. Go all in.
this doesn't make any sense to me, if thr AK doesn't hit on the flop most of the time why go all in then? or am I misinterpretting what your saying?

[ohkanada]

Often when you muck the flop bet, you will be folding a better hand. Since he may well make the same move with a weaker Ace or King.

Ken Poklitar