Fold the Full House?

[pilamsolo]

$6-$12 game, good combination of passive players. I limp UTG with 77, MP limps, CO limps, button limps, blinds call.

Flop is A 7 3

Checked to me, I check, LP bets, button calls, folded to me, I raise, MP folds, LP calls, button 3-bets, I cap, LP calls all in for 3 bets.

Turn A

I bet, button raises. Button is extremely passive (I'd seen him limp with aces twice already), I'm sure he has A7, A3, 33, or AA so I fold.

Of course he showed 33 (the only boat I could beat) /images/graemlins/confused.gif.

Good lay down, or did I just give my money away?

[ajizzle]

Going just by the pot odds, it was an awful laydown. Say you give each of the hands an equal possibility of coming up. That means you only need 1/4 to justify a call. YOu are getting plenty odds to call.

Also, why didn't you put him on AKo. That seems like a very likely holding. TPTK on the flop, he caps it. I've seen it before. A3 is also somewhat unlikely. If he is so passive that he limps with AA, i have a feeling he wouldn't play a hand like A3 behind a ton of callers.

[Dynasty]

That's an atrocious fold. It's ridiculously weak-tight.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure he has A7, A3, 33, or AA so I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are two A7 possiblities. There are six A3 possibilities. There are three 33 posssibilities. There is one AA possibilithy. So, you have a 25% chance of having the best hand. If you eliminate the AA possibility (which I think you should with no pre-flop raise), you have a 27% chance of having the best hand.

There were 11.5 big bets in the pot when you folded. You have to call 2 big bets in order to win 12.5 big bets (including Button's river bet). So, you only need you hand to be good about one out of seven times or 14% of the time.

You gave your money away.

Don't fold full-houses.

[pilamsolo]

I think you misunderstood what I meant by passive. I knew he didn't have a hand like AK because he wouldn't 3 bet with it (This was the first time I'd seen him 3 bet anything in about 4 hours) I had, however, seen him turn over 73s, A5o, and 67o. He was an absolute calling station.

For the sake of argument say you're absolutely sure he has a full house or better. Do I really need only 4:1? I'm facing two bets (one now, one on the river), and the only hand I can beat is 33 (which is tied for the least likely).

[Bob T.]

Good lay down, or did I just give my money away?


Gave money away.
Read this.http://slicer.headsupclub.com:3455/16/31

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[ajizzle]

Yes you only need 1/4. Read Dynasty's post for the exact likelihood of each hand. I was also gonna make the point about him not having AA, because it is unlikely that anyone would limp on the button with that after so many limpers. However, I chose not to mention it because you yourself mentioned that he limped several times before.

Another point to make. Just because someone has been a calling station all night doesn't mean he will not three-bet with TPTK. YOu mentioned that he showed down ridiculous hands like 74o, so what makes you think he's incapable of going against his usual style and three-betting with AK? Just some food for thought.

Ajizzle

[LetsRock]

It's good that you recognized your opponents passive play. I can't believe that you would automatically consider your hand beat just because the calling station bet.

If you just had one Ace or were on a draw, it would have been a good move. With a made boat, I'm gonna see what he has. I'd hope that I would back off and not push it (given his ultra passive nature), but I'm not laying down here.

The pot is way too big to be throwing away a made boat. As Dynasty said, there just aren't that many combinations of cards that he can hold to beat you. Sure, AA (given his previous play of this hand), A7 and A3 are POSSIBLE, but that is really looking for reasons to fold.

If it had been anybody other than the calling station, you'd probably bet this with everything you've got. My adjustment to the fact that it is a calling station raising, would be to call him down.

[Mike Gallo]

Dude,

Bad play. No reason to beat a dead horse hear.

Read Dynasy's explanation of why.

[Homer]

You're getting effective odds of 11:2 (5.5:1) to call it down. Based on a strictly Bayesian analysis, your odds against winning are 9:3 (3:1)*, so you should call it down even if you are 100% sure that these are the only possible hands your opponent could have.

-- Homer

* A7 - 2 combos, A3 - 6 combos, 33 - 3 combos, AA - 1 combo

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
$6-$12 game, good combination of passive players. I limp UTG with 77, MP limps, CO limps, button limps, blinds call.

Flop is A 7 3

Checked to me, I check, LP bets, button calls, folded to me, I raise, MP folds, LP calls, button 3-bets, I cap, LP calls all in for 3 bets.

Turn A

I bet, button raises. Button is extremely passive (I'd seen him limp with aces twice already), I'm sure he has A7, A3, 33, or AA so I fold.

Of course he showed 33 (the only boat I could beat) /images/graemlins/confused.gif.

Good lay down, or did I just give my money away?

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at how the button played the flop. He called the first bet, then 3 bet after you check-raised. Is he going to do this with A7 or A3? Not this player. He has AA or 33.