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adios
02-18-2004, 06:30 PM
That didn't take very long to back away from that prediction. Obviously the administration is privy to data the we're not privy to and they see what's going on.

White House Backs Away
From New-Jobs Projection

Associated Press


WASHINGTON -- The White House backed away Wednesday from its own prediction that the economy will add 2.6 million new jobs before the end of this year, saying the forecast was the work of "number-crunchers" and that President Bush was not "a statistician."

White House press secretary Scott McClellan, asked repeatedly about the forecast, declined to embrace the jobs prediction, which was contained in the annual economic report of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

"This is economic modeling.... some have said it would be lower," Mr. McClellan said, of the payroll projection.

Mr. Bush, himself, stopped short of echoing the prediction. "I think the economy's growing, and I think it's going to get stronger."

The president said he was pleased that 366,000 new jobs have been added since August. "But I'm mindful there are still people looking for work, and we've got to continue building on the progress we've made so far."

The administration's refusal to back its own jobs estimate brought criticism from John Kerry, the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination.

"Now George Bush is saying he's going to create 2.6 million jobs this year alone -- and his advisers are saying, 'What, you didn't actually believe that, did you?' Apparently George Bush is the only person left in the country who actually believes the far-fetched promises he's peddling," Mr. Kerry said in a statement.

Unemployment and the slow pace of job creation are political liabilities for Mr. Bush as he heads into a battle for re-election. Despite strong economic growth, the nation has lost about 2.2 million jobs since he became president.

The jobs forecast was the second economic flap in recent days for the White House. Last week, Mr. Bush was forced to distance himself from White House economist N. Gregory Mankiw's assertion that the loss of U.S. jobs overseas has long-term benefits for the U.S. economy.

Asked about the 2.6 million jobs forecast, Mr. McClellan said, "The president is interested in actual jobs being created rather than economic modeling." He quoted Bush as saying, "I'm not a statistician. I'm not a predictor."

"We are interested in reality," Mr. McClellan said. He said the annual economic report was based on data from about three months ago. Since then, Mr. Bush has said that things are improving.

The issue arose at the White House after Treasury Secretary John W. Snow and Commerce Secretary Don Evans declined to endorse the jobs prediction and said it was based on economic assumptions that have an inherent margin of error. They spoke during a tour through Oregon and Washington to promote the president's economic agenda.

"The number-crunchers will do their job. The president's job is to make sure we're creating as robust an environment as possible for job-creation," Mr. McClellan said. "That's where his focus is."

"The president has said he is not a statistician. He is most concerned about whether people are hurting and able to find jobs," the press secretary said. "The economy is moving in the right direction .. but there is more to do.

AceHigh
02-18-2004, 09:37 PM
[ QUOTE ]
That didn't take very long to back away from that prediction. Obviously the administration is privy to data the we're not privy to and they see what's going on.


[/ QUOTE ]

That really surprises me and is scary maybe. I thought Bush was saying jobs would turn around because he would probably lose anyway if it didn't. No President has ever been reelected when jobs shrank by more than 1%. I think we've lost over 2% of the jobs since he's been in office.

As long as jobs started getting created more than lost sometime between now and November he could claim some kind of victory. Does that mean the White House think the job situation is going to get worse? ouch.

http://www.house.gov/appropriations_democrats/ALLHAT.htm

SossMan
02-21-2004, 09:45 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The president said he was pleased that 366,000 new jobs have been added since August. "But I'm mindful there are still people looking for work, and we've got to continue building on the progress we've made so far."


[/ QUOTE ]

HA! There has to be a net growth of ~180,000 jobs per month just to keep up with the working age population growth.

adios
02-22-2004, 04:40 PM
I've seen 150,000 a month but 180,000 could very well be right. Either way doesn't matter we're not anywhere close to where we want to be.

adios
02-22-2004, 04:48 PM
I think we'll probably see positive net job growth but I don't think it will be enough. Sossman states 180,000 a month are needed to just keep pace with the poplulation growth, I've read and heard 150,000 but certainly 180,000 could be right. Again I hope I'm wrong but I don't think we'll see 1,000,000+ net new jobs by November. IMO poeple will just say let's try someone else especially those that are hurting. I consider Alan Greenspan a super inflation hawk and I think he's not too worried about it now.