Effective Odds

This was an Internet game, however was about a poker hand not the Internet.


I have been told that I play too tight for most loose low limit games. I happen to think I get a little too loose as it gets late. I have read about effective odds and have practiced looking for long shots that should be called to "loosen up."


Loose $3/6 game, I limp after five others with Ad9s from the cutoff. The flop come Td5d7s. Opener bets and all call to me. with the pot $40 (I think with rake) I called the $3 simply because I had the Ad. Nobody raised so I just called. The turn came 3d. It looked like with all the limpers the would be plenty of action from a made straight and/or a made flush and a couple chasing with the same stuff. It was two big bets when it got to me, the opener-call-raise-call-call. I almost folded fearing a sure reraise.


I called the raise. What would you have done? There was about $85ish in the pot when I called the raise. Is the pot big enough to be doing this? Did I really have effective odds to draw to the flush?


Gary W.

Call the raise without hesitation. You don't have to fear a reraise from the first player. In fact you should hope he does reraise. If you are drawing to the nut flush with five players in the pot you are making money with each additional bet. About one in four times you will make your hand and rake a huge pot.

Where would you draw the line to make this call? How many big bets should be in this pot to continue on the flop and on the turn? If it turned aggressive on the flop should you drop? Thanks for all responses to understand odds.


Gary W.

you have seen 6 cards - there are 46 unseen cards - 9 are your flush cards, 37 are non-flush


your odds are calculated from the relationship of 37 bad cards to 9 good cards = 4 to 1 to flush


(in this particular case, it is possible another ace would also be good for you, too, so you might in fact have only 34 bad cards to 12 good cards = 3 to 1)


to call the raise with no further bets to come you need 48 in the pot (48 to 12 = 4 to 1) to break even on the bet


if you are sure there will be another 6 put in by an opponent on the river,(implied odds), if you do flush, then you only need 42 in the pot at this point, and so on, but, unfortunately, a pair on the river could give someone a house which would wipe you out even if you catch your flush


if you have over 48 in the pot you are getting a better return than your required 4 to 1 to break even if you do flush, (which you will do on average once every five times you have a four-flush), which should more than make up for the losses on the fairly rare times when your ace flush is beaten by a rivered house


(the odds of 4 to 1 mean if you put 12 in the pot 4 times you lose 4x12 = 48, but on the fifth time you win 1x48 = 48, so you break even over those five bets, on average)

"...called the $3 simply because I had the Ad"


This was my play on the flop. With a family pot, I figured the only chance I had to win was runner-runner diamonds, IMO. The turn was pretty obvious even if I had a mild reservation. Was calling the flop correct, and draw two perfect cards to the nut flush (23:1?)? I thought so, ONLY because it was sooooo passive.


Gary W.

if you are forgetting about possible runner runner two pairs aces or trip aces or trip nines and looking only for a runner runner flush you still have to break it into one card draws


it is 37 to 10 = 3.7 to 1 to catch a turn flushcard, so you only need a pot of 12 to call for 3


of course, then you need to catch the river flushcard to make the bet sensible and you need to get 4.1 to 1 pot odds to break even


for ease of calculation let's say each bet is 4 to 1 to break even


and let's say there are 25 (5x5) hands of a similar nature to look at


4 to 1 is the same as 20 to 5


20 flop bets will lose 3 each = -60 full stop


5 flop bets will flush on the turn so you have to pay 6 to call to see the river 5 times


4 of these will lose the 3 and now the 6 = -36


1 will win the pot (this confirms your 23 to 1)


so to break even you have to win a final pot of 105 (60+36+3+6) including your 3 and 6


you have one "free" bet on the river to add opponents' money to the pot at "no" risk (unless a centre pair has perhaps given a house)


in your case you had a 40 pot going in


if it hadn't been raised on the turn there would have been about 67, maybe 73, when it got to you


if you had rivered your flush you would have had to have got six more big bets out of your opponents to get to your final required pot of 105 to break even


pretty difficult, in my opinion


in conclusion, because you HAD called the flop bet you had to call the turn raise in the hand under scrutiny


however, mathematically, you shouldn't have called the flop bet in the first place if your belief was that you had to flush to win


but then, it's a game of luck, too


maybe you felt lucky?

I thought that the flop call was probably wrong, which is why I posted it. A non-paired diamond did in fact fall on the river and I took down a $150 pot. I am sure that this was more luck that a well thought out plan, even if I got the results I was looking for.


Thanks to all who contribute.


Gary W.