QQ on the button, slowplaying monster? (LONG!!)

Paradise Poker, playing for pennies (50/100, in fact),


So far, the game has been pretty loose passive, nobody (in my mind) really stands out as a tricky or particularly aggressive player. I haven't been playing very long, so I don't have any significant reads on anybody.


UTG folds, next player calls calls (EP) folded around to me. I have QQ.


Q1: Knowing that people limp in a lot with Ax or Kx, and that 50% of the time I'll see an A or K on the flop, is a limp here acceptable? I can raise and possibly knock out one of the blinds (my experience is that the average big blind is defended a whole lot against a late raiser and a small field). Should I raise since I probably have the best hand at the moment, and I've got a 50% chance of a flop that I'll like?


I limped in. The small blind called, and the big blind checked.


Flop comes 5Q5 rainbow. I don't have much playing time, so I haven't had much experience with flops this big. The action goes check-check-bet.


Q2: Do I raise him or call? If I raise, I'll most likely scare off the blinds and get heads up with EP. I may even scare him off, too, if he were semi-bluffing with an A or K overcard. Then if I bet or raise again, he might fold his good hand because he's afraid. If I call, then I might get overcalls, and the turn might give someone a nice second-place hand.


I called. The two blinds ran away, leaving me heads up with EP anyway. The turn brings the 6 of hearts and a flush draw. EP bets again.


Q3: Is now a good time to fire back? If I raise him back, he probably won't fold, unless he's purely bluffing. If I only call, and he is on a straight or flush draw, then he might catch on the river and give me more action. But if I raise now, I may not get the action on the river if he catches something.


I called. The river comes with a 4 of hearts, putting 456 hearts on the board. He bets again. I raise him back. He re-raises.


Q4: Does he have the straight flush? Paradise caps it at 4 bets, so I know the action is coming to an end either way.


Q5: Theoretical question: How confident should I be in order to cap it (assuming that he isn't going to fold for that one more bet, which is a safe assumption). I want to make sure I'm setting up these calculations right (and I would like for someone to actually do them out, because I'm not sure how to do it):


There is 10BB in the pot. I can call for 1 more to play for the 10 in the pot, or I can raise for 2 and play for 11 (add one for his call). Here is where it's questionable. I want to find out what the probability of "I win" needs to be to make the raise have a higher return than the call, right? I don't see how to do this.


The result is fun for me, but irrelevant to the questions ("Don't be results oriented", right?). I re-re-raised, he called, and I took the pot.


I look forward to all critical remarks and thank you for them.

Q1: Knowing that people limp in a lot with Ax or Kx, and that 50% of the time I'll see an A or K on the flop, is a limp here acceptable? I can raise and possibly knock out one of the blinds (my experience is that the average big blind is defended a whole lot against a late raiser and a small field). Should I raise since I probably have the best hand at the moment, and I've got a 50% chance of a flop that I'll like?


No way, no chance. If you are ahead, you must make them pay. The chances of an A or K flopping are not 50% and even if they were, one of those cards coming down doesnt automatically spell doom for your hand. The blind defending often is MORE reason to raise, not less.


Q2: Do I raise him or call? If I raise, I'll most likely scare off the blinds and get heads up with EP. I may even scare him off, too, if he were semi-bluffing with an A or K overcard. Then if I bet or raise again, he might fold his good hand because he's afraid. If I call, then I might get overcalls, and the turn might give someone a nice second-place hand.


To my mind there are two ways to play this hand and neither of them involve the other two players. Either the blinds have a big hand or they don't, either way your raise is not likely to influence their decision to fold or not. Your problem is simply extracting the most money from the flop bettor. If he is aggressive and is probably bluffing this flop, the best strategy is to just call until the river. That way you give him a chance to make a hand and possibly call your raise and you also dont make him fold his trash on the turn. If he wants to bluff, let him. Alternatively if you think he is the type of player who is betting a real hand here, you are best off raising. If he has the other Q he will probably check call you down. If he has a 5, here's how it will go:


FLOP: Bet, Raise, Call

TURN: Check, Bet, Raise, RERAISE.


You'll end up trapping him for three bets on the turn as well as the two on the flop.


Q4: Does he have the straight flush? Paradise caps it at 4 bets, so I know the action is coming to an end either way.


No, he doesn't. You should cap it every time with the nut full house.


Q5: Theoretical question: How confident should I be in order to cap it (assuming that he isn't going to fold for that one more bet, which is a safe assumption). I want to make sure I'm setting up these calculations right (and I would like for someone to actually do them out, because I'm not sure how to do it.


Your decision on whether to cap or not has nothing to do with the size of the pot. It's completely about that extra bet you're putting in. Either you'll win two bets for one, or he will. So if the raise caps it, you need to be exactly 50.00000001% sure you are winning. You need to be a bit more sure than that if the raise is not a cap because of the chance you will be reraised. Still, you only need to be about 55, *maybe* 60% sure.

If you are ahead, you must make them pay.

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This needs some qualification. If I've got a pair of twos, I shouldn't raise just because I'm ahead right now (there may be reasons and circumstances, but it's certainly not raising for value). I do think that QQ here is worth a raise because the field is small enough, and I have a chance to make it even smaller. But if there were more people, I think limping would be better.


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The chances of an A or K flopping are not 50%.

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You're right. How does 41% sound? I obviously made a mistake when I calculated this the first time.


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To my mind there are two ways to play this hand and neither of them involve the other two players. Either the blinds have a big hand or they don't, either way your raise is not likely to influence their decision to fold or not.

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I think I have to disagree with you on this. By only calling, I'm giving Ax, Kx, the 4th Q (if she's out there), runner-runner striaght, and backdoor flushes chances to get second place hands. At this level, people play that stuff, and in this case, I want them to, so I'll help them out by not making it too expensive for them.


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If he has a 5, here's how it will go


FLOP: Bet, Raise, Call

TURN: Check, Bet, Raise, RERAISE.


You'll end up trapping him for three bets on the turn as well as the two on the flop.

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Yes, but you're assuming a whole lot here. If I know he has a 5 *AND* that he won't become passive if I raise him (I've seen it happen a number of times), then this is probably going to happen. But he limped in early, which makes it much much much less likely that he's on a 5 (as opposed to any of the blinds, who got in cheap). If I'm wrong on either count, this move may cost be multiple bets (and on the more expensive cards).

You should raise everytime with QQ on the button. I can't think of any exceptions. It's definitely wrong not to raise because you know people will limp with Ax and Kx. Don't worry about that.


When you are holding QQ, an Ace or a King will flop 43% of the time (Souce: Petriv's Hold'em's Odds Book) excluding those times when you flop a set or quads.


Once you flop Queens-full, you're only going to be beat by Quad 5s or a straight flush in this hand. You should either raise the flop or raise the turn. But, when you do pull the trigger, don't stop raising. Cap it on every street. You'll be winning this hand a vast majority of the time.

It seems to me that you absolutely must raise with QQ on the button. If you don't get that third queen, you're very vulnerable and while in LL games I don't think you'll get a lot of Ax to fold, you will get the Kx to--so you save the pot for yourself if a K falls on the flop. You have to make people pay for trying to outdraw you.


Wow. You live for these kinds of flops. Personally (although bear in mind there are many people here who are much more experienecd then me) I think it's right not to raise here. Everybody's afraid of the third five, and you're hoping somebody has it. I suspect that the SB's bet is an attempt to represent having it.


Calling on the turn seems okay to me. You're representing the flush draw. It seems to me you come out even either way . /if/ you're positive he'll call, you raise, he calls. Then he checks and calls on the river, so you get two of his bets. However, if you merely call here, he'll bet on the river, then you can raise, and if he calls you get three of his bets. So calling on the turn with an eye towards raising on the river feels right to me.


The fly in the ointment is that he turned into a reraising machine, so it looks like you could have gotten a lot more out of him. But it's possible he only did that because you never represented strength the whole way down.


On the river, the question is: would he have opened in EP with 78h? Probably not. Would he have bet on the turn heads up with a straight flush draw? I doubt it. He'd still want to see cards cheaply. The only thing I'm really afraid of here is 55, but the way I see it, that's a risk you simply have to run.


Take with a large grain of salt, but that's how I see it. I am curious what he had, however. If it was anything less than the nut flush, he's a fool for doing all that re-raising.

Hi Aaron,


Question #1. You have three choices. A) you can raise for value, because you have the best hand. B) you can raise to eliminate weak Aces or Kings in the blinds. or C) you can raise to take control of the hand. any of the three options are viable.


Question #2 Its OK to slowplay on the flop, any money the blinds but into the pot now, is probably drawing dead, and dead money is good money. The only consideration to raising now, is that at low limits, so many players wait till the turn to come alive with big hands, that by playing it fast from the flop almost disguises a big hand.


Question 3# Yes, raise on the turn, its probably your best chance to make three big bets, and if he picked up a draw, he will pay to draw, but if he misses he won't pay at the river. If he has trips, he may still play them fast, before the board gets scary, with a flush or straight on the board.


Question #4 No, he does not have a straight flush.

I would expect either trip 5s, 5s full, or a big Q, maybe KQ offsuit, because he didn't raise preflop. the only hand where you are beat is 55.


Queestion #5 Since you can't be reraised, you need to be 50% sure that you are ahead. In a situation that you could be reraised, you need to be about 66% sure, or a 2 to 1 favorite when you put in the next raise. Put in all your raises here, becaue if you lose to quads, it makes a good story.


Good luck,

Bob t.

"I think I have to disagree with you on this. By only calling, I'm giving Ax, Kx, the 4th Q (if she's out there), runner-runner striaght, and backdoor flushes chances to get second place hands. At this level, people play that stuff, and in this case, I want them to, so I'll help them out by not making it too expensive for them."


It's *already* too expensive for Ax and Kx. If you call, the SB and BB are getting 6-1 to call, which is not nearly enough for them to chase 3 outs. I think it's better to concentrate on the flop bettor and if one of the blinds happens to come along, so much the better.


"But he limped in early, which makes it much much much less likely that he's on a 5 (as opposed to any of the blinds, who got in cheap). If I'm wrong on either count, this move may cost be multiple bets (and on the more expensive cards)."


If EP folds sooner due to your aggressive play, it's because there's nothing in this flop to sink his teeth into. If he plays passively or even folds a 5 here, this is a player you may be able to semi-bluff with greater frequency (more on that below).


While this is a good flop for your QQ, it is not a *great* flop because it offers little help to other players, so you should not expect it to be a real money maker. You got paid for this hand playing it passively, but if you never give yourself the opportunity to win extra bets from an aggressive player, you are also costing yourself money. The extra 1 or 2 bets you earn with passive play does not compare with the extra 3 or 4 you may earn from hands like this with aggressive play.


In addition, you set yourself up for profitable semi-bluff opportunities in the future. You want your opponents to remember the time you raised with a monster because it adds to the possibility that your opponents will fold to your raises in the future.


At this limit, you will make much more money if you rarely slowplay. This may be one hand to do so, but they are very few and far between.