how often do you guys draw to your 5-outers?

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

Here's a hypothetical, but I run into this situation a lot.

Six people see the flop for 1 SB each. You're in the small blind with a red JTo. Flop comes KJ8, two clubs. You check, the person immediately to your left bets, one caller in between. DO you call on your 9:1 shot getting 8:1 on your 5-outer?

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
DO you call on your 9:1 shot getting 8:1 on your 5-outer?

[/ QUOTE ]

Usually, I'll call in this spot (you're actually 8.4:1 to imporve). The opportunity to check-raise if you hit more than makes it worth while. Also, you've got a backdoor straight draw. Backdoor draws always give your hand a little extra value.

BTW, you should probably bet these flops youself. Betting and raising wins. Checking and calling loses.

[thequietone]

It seems to me that in this case you have fewer than 5 clean outs as there are bound to be some draws out there for the flush or straight if you hit your card you may still be behind.

[Nate tha' Great]

I probably wouldn't on that board, since there's a pretty good chance that my outs are bad.

[joker122]

I'm working out these hypothetical situations all the time. Let's assume that you make this play 100 times, and let's also assume that the caller will call down to a showdown (maybe he has Kings but isn't confident about his kicker, or something).

The pot is 6 SB, or, for our purposes $6.00.

The chances of making your hand (trips or 2 pair) is 20% and obviously, the chances of missing (staying at a pair of jacks) is 80%. So out of 100 hands you can expect to hit 20 times and miss 80 times.

Alright, here's a typical way the hand will be played when you miss.
1. Pot = $6
2. Flop: Bettor bets, two callers (including you): pot = $9, you've invested $1 so far.
3. Turn: same as flop, pot = $15, you've invested $3.
4. River: N/A, you've missed your hand.

So 80 times you will lose your $3 investment, which means you will lose $240 after 100 hands in this situation.

OK now let's say you hit your hand.

1. Pot = $6
2. Flop: Bettor bets, two callers (including you): pot = $9, you've invested $1 so far.
3. Turn: same as flop, pot = $15, you've invested $3.
4. River: bettor bets, middleman calls, you CR. Both call, you win the $27 ($15 already in from the turn, and 2 BBs each from 3 players) pot. You invested $7, and you net $20.

So, the 20 times you hit your hand you will gain $400.
Thus, after 100 times in this situation you stand to gain $160 (400-240=160) giving the play a +$1.60 EV. Therefore you should call.


Obviously, I've made alot of assumptions here, such as the middle caller not catching a hand and raising, or him deciding to fold on the turn or river after you've check raised. But most of the time, at least the limit I play (2/4) this is a common scenario, and the middle man is planning on showing down. Also, I am assuming you hit your hand on the river everytime. Actually, this doesn't really make a difference. Whether you CR the turn or the river, you'll get about the same amount of bets into the pot. I don't feel like typing out why this is the case as this post is already long winded.

One more important point: the factor that makes this play possible is the amount of pre-flop calling (6 players) that have built a big pot. In your situation, if as few as 4 players took the flop (and assuming it was narrowed down to 3 after the flop bet) this play would still be profitable, and 3 players to the flop would be about even money. This come from previous calculations I've done, but you can do it for yourself if you want, just substitute some numbers in the above "play by plays." Lastly, I'm not that confident about this logic as I've actually never implemented it in practice, but you can't argue with numbers.

Oh, and one other thing. You also have to take into account that the bettor also probably has 5 outs that will strengthen his hand /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

Thanks, Dynasty and others. This is just what I was looking for, while I'm busy trying to unlearn what Lee Jones taught me about second pair.