swings

I'm just wondering what people's poker swings are in a typical session. When I was playing in wild 3-6 games here in Northern California, my session swings were all over the map.


Now, in slightly tamer 6-12 games and with a little more playing experience, I've found my swings to be less. But last night, I was under roughly -45 BB at my low (which took me some time to get back) and +20 BB at my high. (I ended up leaving +5 BB, but I would've called it a night if I had hit -50 BB.) Is this still within normal levels for those of you who have logged at least 200 hrs or so of poker? What are normal swings in a session for others who make some profit on the game?

wow...50BB? thats alot...maybe in a wild game. i would never have that much on a typical game for a session. i usually use 25BB as my max. some prefer more, but after goin in that much ive had enough. theres a good column by annie duke on ultimatebet.com about the 30 bet rule. take a gander, it may be worth the read. my initial buy in for a 6-12 would be for $150. 1 rack of $3 chips, with another $150 ready to go in behind it should i need it. and i wouldnt go all in before i rebought. if ya win ya lose money when ya dont have to.

$500 is about my max buy for the $10-20 table


nice comeback though. a comeback of 50BB is like a win in my book.


b

I am a winning player, although I'm not a winner in every game I have played. Games that I've played a lot and have had some big swings in:


$3/6 stud +$430

$3/6 stud -$370

$4/8 stud +$558.50

$4/8 stud -$480

$6/12 stud +$797

$6/12 stud -$400 or so (three or four times; nothing earth-shattering)

$8/16 hold'em +$1150

$8/16 hold'em -$797


I should note that while I'm a winner at $6/12 and $15/30 hold'em, I am loser at $8/16. Something about the extra $2 chip makes people crazy.


So it's entirely possible to be a winning player and occasionally lose 50 bets or more at one sitting. It may occur to you at some point that this is not your night. Mason posted recently that he's lost over $2000 in a single session of $20/40 hold'em, I believe on multiple occasions. I was recently stuck $1700 in a $15/30 hold'em game and came all the way back (guy on my right went off for $4000; this helped considerably and was a major factor in my sticking it out).

Andy wrote:

"Something about the extra $2 chip makes people crazy."


I wonder if there is general agreement that there is a "big pile of chips" psychology factor that makes people play more loosely?


Andy, the results of the games that you posted... are those just the games with the big swings, or do your games typically have big swings like that?


Thanks in advance.

This week I went thru an absolutely brutal session. In 7 hours I had won 5 small pots. My confidence sucked. I shoulda beat this game for sure.


So, the next day I talked to a pro/player that I trust. Yes we do often play in the same game and we do try to get each others money but we have a respect for each other. The very first thing he said was "ego". And this comes from a guy with a fairly big one! lol.


He says he's gone thru an average of once a year losing 100 BB in a session. And it's his EGO. He stated that our ego maybe rightfully tells us we should beat the game. We are the favorite for sure. But we won't accept our "luck factor" today.


huh? He suggested that poker is probably 65% skill, 35% luck. And that there are probably less then 100 people that consistently play @ 100% of their skill factor. And even they incur losing sessions. In other words even if you are playing at your full skill level(which may be say 50% of 65% possible) but todays "luck factor" is a big zero then we lose. We cant overcome a 0 luck factor.


We all must admit there is some luck factor involved in poker. Possibly admitting this allows me to bail sooner, recognizing that mine is down.


In the meantime I played two short sessions after my "brutal one" and got small wins. I left very soon even though I felt I could and should beat the present games more as a small confidence builder then anything else.

Another important factor to consider is wildness of game. If the game is nutso wildo expect big huge monsterous swings. This is the time to decide if you want to GO THRU those swings. Cuz they duz happen.

One thing I like to do when it feels like one of those days when you just can't win, is switch games. A couple of weekends ago at the Taj I felt great and felt like I was playing very well, but just couldn't win. I'd get Aces or Ks to start, raise and win only the antes. I'd pick up a small pair with a good kicker, hit my kicker on 4th or 5th st, and then watch someone catch a 4 flush or 4 straight on board. I was having fun but it was frustrating. After throwing 20 BBs into the game I got up, got another hundred and sat in a 3-6 hold 'em game. The change of scenery was a welcome relief and helped me to avoid tilt, and winning a couple of hands gave me my confidence back quickly, and helped me make a little of my money back. As for swings, I've never had bigger ones than 25BBs but usually when I'm in loose, wild games, I do my best to isolate the loosest players and more passive players to keep swings down.