When do you make this play?

[David Steele]

15-30, unknown limper

I raise the limper with AQo in middle position and only he calls.

Flop comes: A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif
check bet call

Turn comes: 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif
check bet call

River comes: 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif
He bets??? I raise

I thought the raise was good because a lot of players will bet the river with a weaker ace thinking they won't get raised and they plan to call anyway.

Is this raise fairly routine, or do you play it safe and call?

D.

[haakee]

I like it. A lot of people will play Ax the way your opponent played his hand and he'll probably call your river raise. Occasionally you'll run into an 8 here, but you're going to be ahead and get paid off often enough to make this a good raise.

[Ulysses]

I believe the hand you'll see most often in this situation is A3.

[WyattErb]

Y should he bet the river with A3??? the 3 dont help him at all, since a pair of 8's is already on the board!
But i like the raise, very good play!

[haakee]

Because bad players misread the strength of their hands. I agree with Ulysses.

[WyattErb]

Hmmmm, would have to be a very bad player, then! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[David Steele]

I agree with your comment about the A3 being likely but in this case he was semi-bluffing with A4s, perhaps hoping to make a wheel eventually.

D.

[DiamondDave]

I'd raise one time. Most opponents are more likely to have a weaker ace than they are to have AK, 45, or an 8. And (importantly) he'll call the raise with many hands you can beat.

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
...perhaps hoping to make a wheel eventually.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'm the only one that finds this funny. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[mike l.]

"I thought the raise was good because a lot of players will bet the river with a weaker ace thinking they won't get raised and they plan to call anyway."

of course we have to say we like it, the thinking behind it is so sound. it's an expert play that takes advantage of a common intermediate level play. excellent.

[elysium]

hi david
in this situation david, raising isn't awful, but what you need to do to stay out of trouble here is look at the pot. whenever you raise, unless you have the nuts, you're doing so for reasons other than building a big pot. there is always some chance that everyone will fold when you raise, and thus your raise wins the pot. you might gain a strategic foothold with a raise, and improve your odds. you also might gain outs. there are also strategic calls and check-raises.

in this hand, since the pot is small and your opponent won't lay down a stronger hand, but might fold hands that you beat, going for the sheer money those times he will call with a weaker hand is marginal at best. he hit a boat on the river. the smaller the pot, the more you can safely strongly consider the worst case scenario. even if you couldn't put your opponent on a hand that beats yours, and you still think you're in the lead, you still must question whether that lead will be a good lead if your raise gets called when you are acting last on the river. if you weren't bet into, but were instead checked to, you still need to be a 2 to 1 favorite when called. you might be able to bet when checked to in this spot, but if you have doubt, ask whether you will 3 bet if check-raised. if you won't, then check it down.

this is a clear call david. do you see why if this type action occured on the turn, you could raise for a free show-down? then, opponent knowledge becomes more important than your lead status.

[elysium]

hi ulysses
i don't raise here. if it's a bluff, he will only fold. if it's not a bluff, i'm beat. if i'm called by a weak A, i love the guy. i'm not raising a loved one. i call everytime.

[David Steele]

Elysium,

whenever you raise, unless you have the nuts, you're doing so for reasons other than building a big pot

FALSE some times you just want the money.


going for the sheer money those times he will call with a weaker hand is marginal at best

A great deal of time he will have the A with a worse kicker and he will call. If he hit his miricle set, oh well, he is the type of player that still might not re-raise fearing AA.

if you weren't bet into, but were instead checked to, you still need to be a 2 to 1 favorite when called
Wrong - that 2-1 rule of thumb is for my the raise, you can value bet hands that you think are only slightly more likely to win if called. In this hand I am hard pressed to imagine a hand where he would call the whole way and beat me.

if this type action occured on the turn, you could raise for a free show-down?

More likely you would be raising for a free 3-bet and he shows you trips. My default play would be to call down if he bet the turn on this particular board.

D.

[David Steele]

Thanks for the favorable analysis!

D.

[elysium]

hi david
the 2 to 1 when checked are those times times you're checked to by loose type opponents. i didn't really proof read. missed the loose.

as far as the raise goes, the raise stinks. you're a bunch of bullies. the kid calls, the kid bets. leave the kid alone.

[beerbandit]

No, that comment also gave me a chuckle.