What good are suited connectors, really?

[Adde]

Let's have a discussion about suited, zero-gap, max stretch connectors (45s-TJs) in multiway pots.

You will flop any draw about 1/6, and from there you will make your str8 or flush about 1/3, thus you will make the hand about 1 time of 18. The numbers are actually a little worse, but considering that some of your made hands will lose we say that you make a winning made hand 1/18.

When you miss the flop you will invest 1 small bet (sb), and when you hit you will always take it to the river for 4 sb. Of those 18 times you will pay:

3*4 + 15*1 = 27 sb

That one time of 18 you make your hand you have to extract at least 27 sb from the other players to break even. With a 7-way pot you have 6 opponents on the flop. If 4 see the turn, 2 see the river and 1 see the showdown, you will get:

6*1 + 4*1 + 2*2 + 1*2 = 16 sb

So, where do you get those missing 11 sb to break even?

** You have to play it aggresive and extract as much as possible when you have the best of it, and also you have to play by perfect pot odds, not leaking off a bad bet here and there. Every time. One badly played hand can eat up all the profit.

** Can you get those missing 11 sb that one time when you have the winning hand? If not, you have to make one of the other 17 hands a winner:

- 2 times you will be at the river with a busted draw. The pot will be 14 sb. If 1 of 2 bets/calls will succeed you have turned the hand into a winner. If not, you have to get 4 more sb from other hands.

- 15 times you won't flop a draw. About 4 times (29%) you will pair one of your cards. If you don't play well postflop (get rid of low pairs, check-raise with top pair, etc), you can easily make this hand a loser. Another 2-3% you get more than one pair.

SOME THOUGHTS

Despite being a seemingly good multiway hand, you have to play it very well postflop to make it a winner.

Any flaws in my thinking?

How many players in the pot do you need to play these hands?

[LetsRock]

Well, I'm honestly not one of the best odds-calc people here, but it seems to me that you forget the possibility of winning with the suited connectors in other ways (2 pr, trips, boats and quads).

I understand that these omitted hands are not the reason that one would play suited connectors, and they probably don't hit these hands a lot and many times they'll hit them (2 pr, trips) and not win, but they probably win enough to make the odds more playable.

Just a thought.....

[agenbite]

Here's some data from my pokertracker database. These are suited connector hands 45s-TJs with > 4 players at a table:

NOTE: All hands are at NL tables

# hands = 3240

% win = 11.72%

BB/hand = 0.13

So for me at least they provide a very marginal profit. I am not a world class player by any stretch so even assuming a much better player were in my seat, what would you expect, perhaps 0.20 - 0.30 BB/hand perhaps?

I suppose any positive EV is a good EV. I play them when I feel conditions are right (being able to see a flop cheaply with at least 3 people). In NL they can be very profitable but unless you pick your spots well, very costly too. Proper pot odds to see a hand through are seldom provided at NL with decent players. Comments welcome.

[Jezebel]

If I remember correctly, one of the stat gurus in the probablity forum concluded that if you include two pair, full house, trips into the equation you would flop a "playable" hand 1:4.

[Adde]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'm honestly not one of the best odds-calc people here, but it seems to me that you forget the possibility of winning with the suited connectors in other ways (2 pr, trips, boats and quads).

[/ QUOTE ]

- 15 times you won't flop a draw. About 4 times (29%) you will pair one of your cards. If you don't play well postflop (get rid of low pairs, check-raise with top pair, etc), you can easily make this hand a loser. Another 2-3% you get more than one pair .

There's the 2 pairs and up. 3% of 18 is about 0.5 hands, and yes, that is an important source to have your suited connectors hold up in the long run.

The numbers are derived from "Holdem's Odds Book" (Mike Petriv).

I was kind of surprised to see how much I was actually paying for these hands. At first they seem cheap, get in for one and get out at once if you miss, but given that you only hit a made hand 5% of the time they can be expensive if you don't play them well.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
it seems to me that you forget the possibility of winning with the suited connectors in other ways (2 pr, trips, boats and quads).

[/ QUOTE ]

And you're leaving out the many times you play 87s, get an 8,5,2 rainbow flop and win the pot with top pair. That happens plenty of times.

[Filip]

I always considered that suited connectors get there best value in pot and nl and not in limit.

[Adde]

[ QUOTE ]
And you're leaving out the many times you play 87s, get an 8,5,2 rainbow flop and win the pot with top pair. That happens plenty of times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, /images/graemlins/wink.gif

- 15 times you won't flop a draw. About 4 times (29%) you will pair one of your cards . If you don't play well postflop (get rid of low pairs, check-raise with top pair, etc), you can easily make this hand a loser. Another 2-3% you get more than one pair .

[The Dude]

This really depends on the nature of the game. If the game is very aggressive at all, sutited connectors can be very, very expensive to play. If the game is somewhat passive with calling stations, they are indeed very profitable.

[Filip]

[ QUOTE ]
This really depends on the nature of the game. If the game is very aggressive at all, sutited connectors can be very, very expensive to play. If the game is somewhat passive with calling stations, they are indeed very profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, good point i think that i might just have found another leak in my NL game thanks /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[SpiderMnkE]

Suited connectors where a decent factor in me graduating from party .5/1 Here are some stats from my PT from back in those days.

4,722 hands

I made 290 BB

30 came from suited connectors. They avged .17 BB per hand.

Thats not a ton I guess.. but they are +ev and helped me get out of there faster