Two pocket nines questions

[scott415]

1. live 3/6 (typical loose/passive, except for this hand)

UTG raises (he's one of the more decent players at the table). I'm on the button and everyone folds to me (!?). I look down, see 99, and proceed to muck it. Granted i didn't have a terrific read on this guy's preflop raising standards, but is it still safe to assume that at best i'm looking at a coin flip against utg? In otherwords, assuming the big cards he'd raise w/ are AK and AQ, and assuming also that one of the blinds might defend, then aren't i mostly likely gonna be in bad shape odds-wise? I'm a dog against two plays w/ two overcards, and completely screwed against any overpair, with set odds nowhere to be found. Anyway, comments?

2. Different game (5/10, loose and sort of aggressive). I'm EP3, with 99 again. It's folded to me, and i decide to limp, thinking i'll get at least five more players in behind me. To my surprise, only two players in the back call, and the big blind checks. So, unfortunately, it's just the four of us taking the flop.
Flop comes K33. Big blind checks, and, since I'm feeling bold, i try betting out. MP (with whom i'd had a bluffing history) calls and the other two fold. Well, turn and river are blanks, both of which i bet, and MP ends up calling me down with K8o. Afterwards, a friend of mind, who was sitting behind me during this hand, mentioned that had i raised preflop the K8 would have been folded. Now, i know that's not a meaningful way to analyze this situation, but i'm wondering if raising, for more universal reasons, was in fact the better play.

thanks for comments,
scott

[Mike Gallo]

Great Scott,

Wow,

Hand one I would have reraised preflop. I do not know UTG however he could easily have AK or AQ.

Hand Two,

I would open raise with the hand.

I would have check raised the turn. If he called I would have checked the river. If he checked behind I would have then bet the river.

I think your game might need some help /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Brian]

Hi scott,

Hand #1: I'd muck here too everytime.

Hand #2: I'd raise if the table is tight, limp if it's loose. Raise if there are good players at the table, limp if there are bad. I think that's pretty self-explanatory, but let me know if you want me to elaborate.

-Brian

[Lost Wages]

Hand 1.
Routine muck for the reasons you state. Plus, you are bound to encounter overcards post flop which will lead to a lot of mistakes; folding the best hand or continuing with the worst. The second best option is reraising. Calling is out of the question. When you just call the pressure is on you to hit the flop because he will likely bet any flop.

Hand 2.
A borderline limp/raise depending on how loose the table is. You played it fine.

Lost Wages

[Schmed]

In both situations I raise.

The first I don't want the blinds in so I can be HU with the UTG raiser. Obviously if he has 10's or better you're in trouble but if you decide that he's on a draw and you're going to play with your 9's you have to raise to get the blinds out so the 10,js in the BB who may have called one and caught his 10 to beat you leaves. On top of that if he has tens, you reraise, and an ace hits and it checks to you you bet he may fold, heck he bets you raise he may fold.

In the second situation, EP, with a mid pair, you're raising essentially to protect your hand.

Someone once explained it pretty well to me. In both of these cases you would be playing the 9's for their pair value not their set value. In the first case if you had 3 limpers you may not raise because the hand is likely to be played multi-way and you're 9's after the flop are probably no good anymore. You may still raise to buy the button or take control of the hand but that's a different reason.

[scott415]

hand 1: do i reraise in order to get the blinds to fold? Even then, how would you play in the best-case flop (no overcards)?

hand 2: i like your comments here. i think my instincts were really off on this hand.

[Mike Gallo]

Hand #1: I'd muck here too everytime .

Thats a bold statement. You will fold everytime from the button with 99. Perhaps I play too tight or I play like a maniac, however I would reraise.

While im on a roll please elaborate on this statement... I'd raise if the table is tight, limp if it's loose.

Why not raise with loose players. If they will call 1 bet or 2 bets, why not make it 2 bets?

Brian do you play much b and m or mostly online?

[BIGRED]

Just a disclaimer before I say anything.
As you can see from my name, I'm still learning.
I usually ask for help rather than give, but I think I've faced these situations enough times that I can provide some meaningful feedback.

Hand 1:
I like to fold here, but if I feel bold enough to play it, I would re-raise. Hopefully, this will kick out the blinds and you can get it heads-up with UTG. Once you see the flop, I think you need to follow up with a bet if he checks or a raise if he bets. If you get any kind of reistence, then fold or check (if you don't get a good flop).

Hand 2: I think 99 is high enough of a pair to raise it early if it's folded to you. If you had some limpers early then I would also limp, but since it was folded to you, I would be inclined to raise. If you get a lot of callers, then proceed according to how the flop comes. If you have 1 or 2 opponents, I would bet out on the flop and see how it get received. Again, any resistence from your opponents without a good flop for you should prompt you to fold.

This is how I would play it, but I'm still learning.

[Mike Gallo]

hand 1: do i reraise in order to get the blinds to fold? <font color="red">Yes </font>
Even then, how would you play in the best-case flop (no overcards)?

Ok you reraise the blinds drop and he just calls. Well now depending on how tricky he plays you adjust according to the flop. If the flop brings no overcards and he bets, raise again. Now you have represented AA or KK..even QQ. If he checks to you with no overcards, then bet. If he doesnt check raise..on to the turn. If the turn doesnt bring overcards and he checks you can check behind and avoid the check raise in case he does have AA or KK and wants to get tricky. If he bets the turn then call.

I think a lot of these decisions become player dependant. I do not agree with weak tight thinkging /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[Schmed]

best case flop in hand one I bet raise anything. If I get C/R's I take it to 3. I may check the turn and then call the river depending on how I read his raises i.e player dependant.

Typical player will not 4 bet you preflop if they are on a draw, (AQ, AK, being agg with AJ or even A10s). Now I think you said this guy was a good player. A good player probably just calls with AK in this situation. I mean you are heads up and you have just showed him you have a hand and you have position on him. When he makes his certain flop bet regardless of the cards that flop you have to raise him.

The turn is where it get's a little tricky because KK, QQ may C/R you but I still think you have to bet on the turn. If he has the AK you can't let him get a free ride from the turn to the river.

[Brian]

Hi MG,

[ QUOTE ]
Thats a bold statement. You will fold everytime from the button with 99. Perhaps I play too tight or I play like a maniac, however I would reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this specific instance, facing an UTG raise from a decent player, yes, I am folding every time.

[ QUOTE ]
While im on a roll please elaborate on this statement... I'd raise if the table is tight, limp if it's loose.

Why not raise with loose players. If they will call 1 bet or 2 bets, why not make it 2 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure.

At a tight table, in EP, I am going to raise with 99 every time for a couple of reasons. One, my chances of stealing the blinds have gone up. Two, my raise will likely force out hands that hold two overcards to mine, such as JT, which would play if I just limped. Three, I do not want to limp in and be raised by a good player in late position who will use his position to his advantage. Finally, I raise because I'd rather not let good players in cheaply. But, I have a feeling we agree on this sentiment.

So, why do I limp at loose tables? A few simple reasons. I don't want to be playing 99 in a multi-way raised pot out of position. It is a tricky situation to get yourself into, especially when an overcard flops, and one you will face often when raising this hand in EP at a loose table. When the players are bad, I also don't want to raise and knock them off of their crappy hands. You generally will make money from bad players every time they get involved in the pot with you.

[ QUOTE ]
Brian do you play much b and m or mostly online?

[/ QUOTE ]

90% online, 10% home games. I am not even 21. How would that effect the way I play though? The games I play in online are frequently filled with horrible, loose players that I do not want to be raising 99 UTG with. There are also players against whom I would not re-raise 99 on the Button in that situation. Of course, there are plenty of players I would.

-Brian

[Allan]

From this analysis, it makes it seem hard to me how to know hot to play your hand correctly after the flop.

I think a lot of these decisions become player dependant. I do not agree with weak tight thinkging

You state this then you are saying to possibly give free cards to those overcards you are thinking you had beat by 3 betting preflop. I don't get it?


I think the player dependent issues should come up preflop not post flop. I believe this is a marginal hand preflop and there aren't many cases I would want to play it.


Allan

[scott415]

[ QUOTE ]
If the flop brings no overcards and he bets, raise again. Now you have represented AA or KK..even QQ. If he checks to you with no overcards, then bet. If he doesnt check raise..on to the turn. If the turn doesnt bring overcards and he checks you can check behind and avoid the check raise in case he does have AA or KK and wants to get tricky. If he bets the turn then call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. Still not sure why i'd call if he bet the turn? Is he "supposed" to have overcards in this case (assuming he's not the tricky type)?

[Homer]

Hand 1 - Muckety muck muck. You should only stay if there are a few callers between you and UTG or if UTG has loose raising standards from EP, in which case you should three-bet.

Hand 2 - Judgement call. If the game is very loose, you should open-limp. If it's tight, you should raise. Basically, you want to see the flop 5-6 way for one bet or 2-3 way for two bets. If you think a raise will be coldcalled by multiple opponents, you are better off limping.

-- Homer

[Mike Gallo]

In this specific instance, facing an UTG raise from a decent player, yes, I am folding every time.

You would allow an UTG player who you have played against for a few hours steal your button? I do not consider someone a solid player until I have seen them play for a while.

How would that effect the way I play though?

You may encounter more thinking opponents in a b and m type setting than on the internet.

[Brian]

[ QUOTE ]
You would allow an UTG player who you have played against for a few hours steal your button? I do not consider someone a solid player until I have seen them play for a while.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I generally let UTG raises "steal" my button.

[ QUOTE ]
You may encounter more thinking opponents in a b and m type setting than on the internet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me sht may also turn purple and I can call myself a leprechaun. But there's no evidence to support that happening. From what I have heard, B$M players tend to be worse than most online opponents. But either way, I don't see how that effects this discussion.

-Brian

[CrackerZack]

Hand 1, if you think EP will raise AJo, KQo, and 88 UTG, you should 3-bet. These aren't exactly loose raising standards, semi-loose, but not full blown loose, but you have position, and a real hand. You said he was decent, but how was he decent? Tight and aggressive? Did you see any of his hands shown down? Many players that are decent will frequently open raise the hands listed above depending on the game and those same people should be 3-bet with 99.

[Mike Gallo]

Hand 1, if you think EP will raise AJo, KQo, and 88 UTG, you should 3-bet. These aren't exactly loose raising standards, semi-loose, but not full blown loose, but you have position, and a real hand. You said he was decent, but how was he decent? Tight and aggressive? Did you see any of his hands shown down? Many players that are decent will frequently open raise the hands listed above depending on the game and those same people should be 3-bet with 99.

I concur 100%.

[rharless]

I strongly, strongly side with Brian and Homer here. Send 99 to the muck.

The key is that it is either a small favorite or a huge underdog. The frequency of hands that it is a small favorite with, is not enough to make up for all the money you lose when you 3-bet as a huge underdog.

I will "sometimes" raise AJo, KQo, or 88 UTG, and I have to tell you, I would love it if buttons consider 3-betting me with 99 on my "typical UTG" raise.

I did a pokertracker check. My UTG raises include not only these above hands, but occasionally stuff also like KJs, even KTs, even a few ATos thrown in there (obviously highly dependent on the type of game and my image). In general, when I am raising UTG, 65% of the time I am a slight underdog to 99 and 35% of the time I am dominating 99.

When I am dominating 99, I am a favorite about 80% to 20%. When I am the slight underdog, I am a loser about 46% to 54%. (advantage can range from 52 to 55 depending on suitedness so I use 54 for convenience).

when I dominate 35% of the time I will win .90BB/hand when 99 3-bets me. (80%*1.5BB - 20%*1.5BB)
when I am a slight underdog 65% of the time I will lose .12BB/hand when 99 3-bets me (46%*1.5 - 54%*1.5)

This means everytime 99 3-bets my UTG raise, if I simply called his 3-bet and the action ended there, I would win .24BB/hand.

Position counts for a lot but I don't think it's enough to overcome this disadvantage. You have to be a very skilled postflop player as many flops will have overcards to 99 and these are difficult to play profitably against a decent UTG player.

The point I am elaborating is that even though you are a slight favorite two out of three times, it's not enough to make up for the tragic one out of three times when 99 is a huge underdog.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]

when I dominate 35% of the time I will win .90BB/hand when 99 3-bets h. (80%*1.5BB - 20%*1.5BB)
when I am a slight underdog 65% of the time I will lose .12BB/hand when 99 3-bets me (46%*1.5 - 54%*1.5).

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you've forgotten to account for the dead money from the blinds, an extra .75 BB.

Let's look at this from the Button's perspective.

when dominated 35% of the time (I think this is too high) he will lose .75 BB/hand when 99 3-bets me. (20% * 2.25BB - 80%*1.5BB)

when he is a slight favorite 65% of the time he will win .52BB/hand with his three bet (54%*2.25 - 46%*1.5).

That works out to +0.07 BB a hand for a 3-bet, assuming that it was called and the action stopped there, which of course it doesn't, which of course is nice for Button because he has position.

Yes, you need to be a good postflop player to pull this off, but it's by no means an "easy" fold except against an absolute rock.

[Mike Gallo]

Dude, you've forgotten to account for the dead money from the blinds, an extra .75 BB.

You mean dudette, Rharless is a woman. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[rharless]

Dude, you've forgotten to account for the dead money from the blinds, an extra .75 BB.

You're right. But also some of that has to go to the rake, so the real answer is in between our two numbers, depending on how much blind money there is (in 3-6 that's .66BB in blind money) and what the rake is. Still, after the rake, the answer is closer to your number than mine. I calculated it with .5BB of dead money and in that case 99 loses .02BB/hand while UTG wins .52BB/hand.

I think 35% is about right. If someone raised UTG AA-TT and AK/AQ/AJ/KQ (suited or not) ALL of the time, that's 30 combinations of pairs and 64 combinations of non-pairs, so 32% of the hands will dominate 99. But most who raise KQ and such do not raise it 100% UTG, so it's quite reasonable to adjust it upwards to 35%.

I think it's a pretty easy fold. Most players who are characterized as "decent" do not get out of the line UTG in a full ring game. If you do choose to play the 99 then of course you should 3-bet, but I would not play it because if the player is "decent" he probably won't be bleeding a lot of chips post flop anyways.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, you've forgotten to account for the dead money from the blinds, an extra .75 BB.

You mean dudette, Rharless is a woman. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I routinely call my female friends "dude", which is probably why I don't have very many of them.

[Mike Gallo]

Hi everyone,

Good debate we have going.

I want everyone to read this statement...
Granted i didn't have a terrific read on this guy's preflop raising standards, but is it still safe to assume that at best i'm looking at a coin flip against utg?

Against someone I knew well, I would probably muck. Against the player described I would not. I also do not have too much respect for the players in the Taj $3-$6 game. I have an advantage to some of you other posters, I have played in that game and I can gauge the lineups pretty well.

Zack and I had this conversation over lunch Saturday. Some of the advice here doesnt carry over well because of the game dynamics that develop. UTG might have noticed that he can win the blinds with a preflop raise.

I will admit that against some players raise from UTG I would not hesitate to throw away 99, against other players I will almost always make it three bets.

Either way I think its a matter of preference and dealing with the situation at the moment.

[rharless]

I'll be your friend.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll be your friend.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool, dude.

[rharless]

also remember this statement...

he's one of the more decent players at the table

It is certainly correct to 3-bet 99 sometimes. I just ask that you consider from time to time, that if someone hasn't been raising enough for you to get a read of his preflop raising standards, and then he now raises UTG and everyone folds to you, that you are better off mucking.

I think 3-betting 99 is better saved for when you know he does have loose raising standards, or for when you know he folds too much postflop, or you know he will pay off to the river with missed overcards. Granted I have never played at the Borgata 3-6, but I usually find UTG raises to be pretty predictable at low limits, especially in a casino.

[edit] oops just realized it was the Taj 3-6, not Borgata. In that case, I have played in that game, and I still think the UTG raisers are not usually hands that you want to take 99 to war with. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Mike Gallo]

I think 3-betting 99 is better saved for when you know he does have loose raising standards, or for when you know he folds too much postflop, or you know he will pay off to the river with missed overcards.

I agree with you 110%.


Granted I have never played at the Borgata 3-6, but I usually find UTG raises to be pretty predictable at low limits, especially in a casino.

This hand took place at the Taj Mahal /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[rharless]

my Taj/Borgata edit beat you by a minute.

you can't agree with me 110% and still stand by your prior statement that you would muck only against a few known players but 3-bet every other time. I think you are just trying to suck up to me b/c you haven't met me yet, so you think I'm a super hot foxy mama.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[TwoNiner]

I totally agree with mucking in #1 unless you have seen this guy make real bad raises. You definitely just don't assume he could raise with 77 or 88.

If you are going to just hope that this guy will raise more often with AJ, KQ, A-10, rather than QQ, KK, AA you still aren't in a good spot when overcards come(a real big percentage of the time9 , because you will win a small amount when the flop misses him but lose a large amount when it hits him Doyle Brunson talks about this in Super System in talking about how 22 is a slight hot and cold favorite vs. AK but he would definitely rather be the guy holding AK b/c he is much more likely to know when he has the best of it, and will win more money when he does and lose less when he is behind. This factor plays a bigger role than your favorable position when heads up. So while you might think you are probably a slight favorite against overcards, you won't get the better of it IMO. Muck, Muck, Muck

[Mike Gallo]

I think you are just trying to suck up to me b/c you haven't met me yet, so you think I'm a super hot foxy mama

Ummmm...no. /images/graemlins/frown.gif That never entered into the equation /images/graemlins/blush.gif

you can't agree with me 110% and still stand by your prior statement that you would muck only against a few known players but 3-bet every other time.

How about this, if I respected my opponents raise I would fold, if not I would three bet. How does that look?

[rharless]

did you edit your username for this post??? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
MP ends up calling me down with K8o. Afterwards, a friend of mind, who was sitting behind me during this hand, mentioned that had i raised preflop the K8 would have been folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may not realize it but that is an arguement for limping with 99. Why do you want an opponent to fold K8o when you've got 99? You're a big favorite.

As for the hands, I almost always fold the 99 in Hand 1. In hand 2, I usaually raise.

[Brian]

We have Dynasty in our camp now, Rharless! We shall never lose!!!

-Brian

[GuyOnTilt]

FWIW, I'm with Rachele and Brian here too. 99 hits the muck versus a typical (or unknown) UTG raise. My default play with TT is to muck here as well.

GoT

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
We have Dynasty in our camp now, Rharless! We shall never lose!!!

-Brian

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm in your camp too, as I agree with what Dynasty said. Fold hand #1, raise hand #2.

[CrackerZack]

These stats also imply that you're going to the river with you hands that are behind every time. You'll rarely get to the river heads up with AJo, KQo etc if you don't hit.

FWIW, I'll agree completely with someone you believe to be decent and you have no knowledge of his raising standards, that this is a fold. Off to read all this chatting.

[rharless]

Tent is getting crowded.

[edit] I remember as a 2+2 newbie, I was playing live with clark, and one of my very first hands I cold-called with 99 on the button after an EP (weak tight Vegas local) raiser. I missed the flop and I folded and Clark asked what I had. His eyes jumped simultaneously out of his skull when I told him 99. It was then that I learned, 3-bet or fold, with most often folding. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

If only all poker lessons were so easy to apply at the table.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
These stats also imply that you're going to the river with you hands that are behind every time. You'll rarely get to the river heads up with AJo, KQo etc if you don't hit.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and I think the -EV of that somewhat outweighs the +EV of having position, even though I think position is really important here.

But it's close enough that opponent considerations come into play. In the s/h games where the percentage of overpair raises (versus overcard raises) is lower, I see this as a routine 3-bet. Against a competent UTG raiser in a full game, it's probably a muck.

[RacersEdge]

I don't like 99 there either.

I think an interesting/harder question would be what about TT instead in the same scenario?

What if the 99 on the button was looking at the same raise from MP instead of UTG?

First question with TT is a tough decision.

I would still muck 99 from an MP raise too.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are just trying to suck up to me b/c you haven't met me yet, so you think I'm a super hot foxy mama.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmmmmmmm..... Yeah, whatever you said. I agree w/ that.