Ok, so why am I winning?

[DanTheCardMan]

Played this weekend for the first time ever in a real $ ring game online. Started at the .5/1 table at PP. Before I'd been playing tournaments, but found that the best I could do was tread water, as far as winnings went. So for 2.5 hours I played the .5/1.

Sat down at what turned out to be a VERY loose, passive table. Often it was 6 or more people to seeing the flop. I decided that unless I had bullets or cowboys (or wanted to represent them) I wasn't going to raise preflop, but I'd play quite loose and see what I could catch. My stats say that for the session I saw about 48% of the flops (in tournaments I was seeing around 30%). My % won after seeing the flop was something like 55%, and I won 90% of the showdowns.

My strategy at that point was basically to bet until I felt I didn't have the best hand. See the flop, if I caught anything, a 4 flush, an open ended straight, bottom pair, even 2 overcards I'd bet. If I was raised, I may or may not fold, depending on my kicker, whether I was suited, what outs I had, what the board looked like. Usually if I had bottom pair and was raised and 1-2 others called or raised, I'd release. I don't think I released a winning hand after the flop the whole session.

What I've found is that I definitely like being the aggressor. I rarely called at all. I would do it enough to show that I WOULD do it sometimes so that I could disguise flush draws and such. In addition, if something didn't feel right about the hand, even pre-flop, I would release. I found that I don't like KQ offsuit or Ax offsuit, even from late position, because I'm not comfortable raising with those hands. On the other hand I'll occasionally raise with something like 10/6 off in MP to represent a big hand. I found more than once that I could do that, then if an A or K hit on the flop I'd bet into the field. If someone played back I'd fold. If not, I'd pound away on the turn and river in hopes of picking up the pot. Most times it worked. Of course I played big hands the same way, so if someone played back at me THEN, I could play back at them. I more or less was using a lot of Brunson's ideas, even though it was a limit game.

All in all, starting with a $10 buy-in, I left the table with over $55 after 2.5 hours. I moved up to a 1/2 table for another session, but only got to play about an hour and a half before the power went out at my house. I did manage to have about $87 after buying in with $40.

My questions are as follows:

How typical were my results? Like I said, yesterday was my first time at a real $ ring game online so I have no perspective.

Would my strategy play we'll at higher limits? (I'm gonna try a 2/4 game this evening and see what happens.)

Is my strategy relatively sound? That is, I feel like I was making the right decisions all along, but was I really doing that or was I just getting very lucky?

[Jezebel]

Dan,

I'm not sure where to begin....

You have described yourself as a loose aggressive player borderline maniac. Maniac's can rack up HUGE session wins in a short period of time if the cards are running their way. However, they also burn through stacks of chips when the cards turn. In the long run it is a losing strategy and will most likely, sooner than later, cost you your entire bankroll.

Unless the money means nothing to you, I would stay at the lowest limit possible until you get a grasp of what constitutes solid play.

I would advise you to go out and buy some books on limit play. Trying to adopt Brunson's No Limit strategy to Limit is suicide. Even playing Brunson style No Limit in a No Limit game can be tricky.

I would purchase the following couple of books:
"Winning Low-Limit Hold'em" by Lee Jones.
"Theory of Poker" by David Sklansky
"Zen and the Art of Poker" by Larry Phillips.

Also, browse around the micro-limit forum to discuss hands and get some ideas on how other players have faired with different strategies.

Good Luck and play well..

[CrazyEyez]

Jezebel is right on. Here are a few more of my own thoughts, for what they're worth...
[ QUOTE ]
I saw about 48% of the flops

[/ QUOTE ]
More than about 20-25% is too high.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I released a winning hand after the flop the whole session.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's an indication you played too loose. You should be occasionally laying down what would have been the winner if you are playing sufficiently tight.

[ QUOTE ]
I found that I don't like KQ offsuit or Ax offsuit, even from late position, because I'm not comfortable raising with those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good. Although in loose passive games you don't need a raising hand to play. You can limp with drawing hands such as medium/small pairs and suited connectors.

[ QUOTE ]
On the other hand I'll occasionally raise with something like 10/6 off in MP to represent a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a waste of money at low limits. Play it straight up. Bet your big hands, fold the rest. Stone cold bluffs like that will not pay off in the long run.

I also strongly suggest Jones' Winning LLHE for starters.

Good luck,
Greg

[namknils]

No offense Dan, but you are gonna get pounded if you keep playing like this. It sounds like you know you shouldn't be winning by the title of your post. I think you know you aren't playing optimally, but you are wondering if your way will hold up over time. The answer is no. If you continue to play like this, and move up in limits you will lose your entire roll. You started with a nice upswing, that doesn't mean that your style of play will continue to produce for you.

I read Lee Jones when I started, and I'd recommend it. Also Ed Miller is coming out with a new 2+2 book for low limits in a couple of months, that should be a good buy.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so why am I winning?

[/ QUOTE ]

One word:

Variance.

[DanTheCardMan]

See, I've read Warren and Sklansky/Malmuth and Baldwin (Super/System) and found that mostly what it did was get me thinking TOO much at the table in the live ring games I've been playing (2/4 & 3/6, mostly). Taking their advice, I ended up waiting for good starting hands in the proper position and would either get blinded off or when I did come in I'd rarely hit anything on the flop. I was getting killed.

So I took my game online and I don't know what it is but playing much looser and more aggressively than I did in the ring games, I had a bit of success.

Mind you, I'm not out of control by any means. I was analyzing everything, from the size of the pot to the texture of the board to what I thought others had to whether or not I thought I had the best of it. If I thought I did, I would bet or raise. If not, I would fold, unless I thought my opponent was weak in which case I'd go ahead and bet or raise. (A good example of a laydown that I made that a weak maniac might not is when I folded a set of 6's against 3 other opponents after 2 capped rounds of betting - I was getting good enough odds to see the turn card, but it didn't fill me up and probably made someone else a flush so I folded in the face of 2 bets.)

And I was sure I was pretty deceptive to my opponents. I had one mention how every time we went to showdown he was constantly having the 2nd best hand. Never knew what I had.

I'm just excited, I guess, in that I've found something that works for me. Now whether or not it will continue to work remains to be seen. I know I'm anxious to find out, though.

[DanTheCardMan]

[ QUOTE ]
More than about 20-25% is too high.

[/ QUOTE ]

This table was VERY loose, which made that high a percentage acceptable (in my eyes). For instance in single-table tournaments I was playing MUCH tighter until several players had been knocked out then I really picked it up. And on a tigher table I'd definitely play tighter.

[ QUOTE ]
That's an indication you played too loose. You should be occasionally laying down what would have been the winner if you are playing sufficiently tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I laid down several winners pf. I'm not saying I had the best hand going forward, but the times that I didn't I was either able to drive out the other players or improve to the best hand. Or fold if I didn't think I'd get the best of it. I did win 91% of my showdowns, which I think says something.

[ QUOTE ]
Good. Although in loose passive games you don't need a raising hand to play. You can limp with drawing hands such as medium/small pairs and suited connectors.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was doing that all during my session.

[ QUOTE ]
This is a waste of money at low limits. Play it straight up. Bet your big hands, fold the rest. Stone cold bluffs like that will not pay off in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I remember that 10/6 specifically because the board came J66r. Me and one other opponent capped the betting. I'm sure he put me on an overpair because of my pf raise. Turn came a 10. Betting capped again. Capped again on the river and I showed him my boat. He did have K/6o and I'm not sure what I would have done had the 10 not come.

[namknils]

[ QUOTE ]
I did win 91% of my showdowns, which I think says something.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that you are interpreting this stat correctly. It seems like you think it means you are making good reads. This says to me that the deck is smacking you across the face and you are hitting more than the normal amount of hands.

[ QUOTE ]
Actually I remember that 10/6 specifically because the board came J66r. Me and one other opponent capped the betting. I'm sure he put me on an overpair because of my pf raise. Turn came a 10. Betting capped again. Capped again on the river and I showed him my boat. He did have K/6o and I'm not sure what I would have done had the 10 not come.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an example of the deck being very, very kind to you. You made a crazy raise preflop then hit a good flop. Then you capped it with the second best hand? What did you put him on if you knew he put him on a over pair? Then the turn card bailed you out big time b/c you would have capped two more streets and lost your shirt.

If you want to try this out, fine. But do yourself a favor and stay at the lower limits. A two and a half hour win doesn't mean you need to go up. Get ready for some huge downsides if the cards aren't kind.

-nam

[Nottom]

You can try to defend you play, but the fact is it is a losing strategy longterm. Like Jezabel said, a LAG can go on the most unbelivable rushes when the cards are coming in, but as soon as the cards run cold they will lose it all in a heartbeat.

If you want to be a winning player, you have to tighten up preflop. You biggest advantage in these loose games is that you start with better hands than you opponents. Loosening up a bit is fine (seeing 28% of your flops vs. 20% maybe) but there is no way you can win consistantly seeing 40%+ of you flops, you are just bleeding away money too fast and will constantly make second best hands that end up costing you lots of chips.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
So for 2.5 hours I played the .5/1.


[/ QUOTE ]

A monkey could play blindfolded and catch a winning session for 2.5 hours. Check back when you have played this style for 3-4 months. Let us know where your bankroll is at. Who knows...maybe you are a small stakes revolutionary. My guess, however, is that seeing 45%+ of your flops and "occasionaly" PF raising w/ 10-6o to "represent a bigger hand" in a .50-1 game isn't exactly optimal long term winning strategy. But, like I said...check back in a couple of months. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[DanTheCardMan]

Loose and aggressive doesn't work well in a lot of situations.

*ahem*

*walks off to lick wounds*

[paland]

Besides Dan, we don't want you going off and winning now do we? Truth be told, in the low limit games, it is a different strategy than what most of these guys are talking about. Loose and aggressive does win with a table of fish. I've won $1800 on 2-4 and 3-6 over the last two weeks. And I am not getting rushes of good cards. I'm getting about average. I've seen the too tight player in low limit and I have them for breakfast. Play what wins for you. Good Luck.

[uuDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
(A good example of a laydown that I made that a weak maniac might not is when I folded a set of 6's against 3 other opponents after 2 capped rounds of betting - I was getting good enough odds to see the turn card, but it didn't fill me up and probably made someone else a flush so I folded in the face of 2 bets.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Dan,

Sorry if it seems like piling on, but it does not seem like a good play to me to be laying down a set when the pot is this big, even if there are 4 flush cards on the turn. (You should look at some of MajorKong's posts.)

With your style players are going to start playing back at you more often. They will isolate you. They will check-raise more often. They will let you do the betting when they have a big hand or draw. Better players will come looking for you and smile when they find you at their table. If that happens, you're going to have to adapt your style. If you don't....

Granted none of this is guaranteed to happen. You may BE a poker genius (post some hands-- let's see /images/graemlins/cool.gif). But I think the advice others have given here is sound and you should listen and adapt. That may be difficult, because it seems like you just like to play this way, and who can blame you? It must be fun to have all the action focussed on you. But that kind of fun is likely to get expensive. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[ QUOTE ]
*walks off to lick wounds*


[/ QUOTE ]

No need-- seems like everyone is sincerly just trying to help. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[DanTheCardMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Besides Dan, we don't want you going off and winning now do we? Truth be told, in the low limit games, it is a different strategy than what most of these guys are talking about. Loose and aggressive does win with a table of fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

And that's what I've come to realize I had at the time. The only time I'd ever show a hand is when I won, so they thought I had the nuts or close to it every time. And I was drawing out like crazy too. But it seems that like someone else mentioned, the cards were VERY favorable to me that night. I even moved up to 2/4 for a couple hours, and the 2nd hand I had was QJ at a loose table in MP..hit KQJ on the flop, 2 suits, bet out and was called by 4. Next card a J, bet out again and was called by all 4. Last card was a 10, completing the flush and str8 draws. Checked, next person bet, 2 callers, I raised, everyone called, and I took down a $77 pot.

But ultimately I lost it all back, and then some, by playing WAY too aggressively. I'm finding that I go through phases, where I'll play aggressively and win, then lose some of it back because I can't temper that aggression after the cards stop coming and better players come to the table. Then I'll play too passively, like I did last night, and miss out on some wins that could have been much larger.

But as I learn about myself, I'm able to see these patterns earlier on, and adjust to them. And if I can't snap out of the style of play that's losing me $$, I'll go ahead and quit playing for a bit.

[Lexander]

Dan,

I am still very much a beginner. I am okay enough that I can beat a really low limit game pretty easily, do okay at low buy-in NL at Party, and generally get slowly crushed at higher levels when I try. About the only thing I can say is that I am in the black and reasonably believe I will continue to improve.

My experiences have been pretty much that when the cards are running hot it hardly matters how I am playing. I have that dangerous mix of being both aggressive and passive in the same mix (sometimes I am way too aggressive, sometimes needlessly passive). I will attack, attack, attack with hot cards, and my opponents at limit seem to be more than willing to hand me money. At NL, it tends to be more of a fight but it seems that at least somebody wants to pay off here and there.

The real issue for me is surviving those ugly stretches where nothing is working. I am getting better at it but I still complain and whine and get annoyed. I try very, very hard not to let it interfere with my play but sometimes it does.

What I have noticed is that loose play is a two-edged sword. When you are running good loose you can feel like the king of the world. People start giving you action, you keep catching and winning and the money just rolls in. Opponents start tilting from all the beats (or just bad cards) and everything is gravy.

The big danger to all this is it is misleading. You can run hot for a good long time but eventually it will stop and you have to deal with what happens then. I find constantly I am going through stretches where I win 1 hand in 50 if I am lucky. I am finding more and more that how I deal with those stretches determines everything about my long-term ability at this game.

I had a stretch when I first started playing NL where everything went my way. I thought I was really improving as a player. The reality was I was just playing limit type hands and was getting very lucky catching cards when I played a hand. The more I play the more I realise that if you are hitting a bunch of good hands you will win money. The problem is in not going broke the rest of the time.

Anyhow, I wish you luck and hope your style improves to the point where you really succeed at it. I can't play loose. It doesn't work for me and I have come to understand that.

- Lex