ATs in $$

[CrisBrown]

Hi all,

$55 two-table SNG on PokerStars. There are four of us left (all in the money), I'm 3rd stack with ~4900. Blinds are 200/400+25 antes. I have ATs on the bubble. UTG folds, I raise to 1200. SB folds. BB (who has me covered, barely) moves all-in. He is a very good but very aggressive player once he's in the money. What's your play here?

Results in white below:

<font color="white"> I read him for any pocket pair, any Ax, KQs, JTs, basically any decent blind-defense hand. I called, he turned up AQ, and I took 4th place money. </font>

Cris

[Bluff1]

Hi Cris,

With the various hands that you put him on to defend with I think your call is okay. I would have folded for two reasons one because I hate calling all in and the other being that only way your in real good shape is if in fact he is holding an ace smaller than yours or if he has something like KT. I think you were in a very tough spot because your stack is still a little too big to just move in with it but you almost have to raise. Overall while I don’t think a call is necessarily wrong, I would have folded.

[jgraeffe]

I would fold. ATs is certainly a raising hand, but you're hoping for the pot right there. Once he comes back at you, you're probably beaten. Since you raised 25% or so of your stack, he must feel you're likely to call an all-in. What can you put him on? Your're probably to be either a big dog or a little one.

ATs is one of those hands that looks like gold with high blinds, but when there's action, you're probably beat.

[La Brujita]

Interesting hand. It would be good to know how many chips the ss had. I would muck here for basically two main reasons:

1. Flat payout struture at stars (and you still have plenty of chips to fight with)

2. It seems to me with the range of hands he may be calling with, even as an aggressive player, you are much more likely to be dominated than to be in a dominating position.

Regards

[CrisBrown]

Hi jgraef, LaBrujita, and Bluff,

My reasoning was this. After my raise, I have only about 3700 left, and the blinds are rising to 300/600+100 antes on the next hand. So if I fold, I'm UTG and short-stacked (only 6xBB left), and it's all-in-or-fold time. My thought was that I'd rather take my chances here with a medium suited Ace than have to push in on trash within the next three hands, especially when it's possible that I'm ahead.

As it turns out, I was only a 2:1 dog to lose this pot -- 66:28 with 5% ties. And that's only marginally worse (in terms of win odds) than if I'd had to push in on two random cards later. In terms of $EV, though, I think pushing here is much better, because if I fold here and push on two random cards I'll still be 3rd or 4th stack, whereas if I push here and double up I'll be the chip leader and have a very good shot at 1st place money.

I could be wrong, though, and I'm very willing for someone to explain the flaws in my reasoning.

Cris

[CrisBrown]

Hiya LaBrujita,

The short-stack had ~4200, only a little less than me.

Cris

[La Brujita]

SS not that small after all.

The only other thing I want to add is ATs is not a hand you really want confrontations with; you mostly are looking to pick up the blinds.

If you are willing to call a raise all in, you are likely better of pushing all in.

One reason I imagine you did not was you were afraid of the sb picking up a hand.