55 late position...bottom set misplayed? advice sought

[Garland]

Hi all,

Wanting a little feedback here.

Location: Lucky Chances
Stakes: $9/$18
Players: Somewhat loose, some aggression.

General question, as this scenario is likely to come up more than once:

I'm playing tight as usual. And I think by this time I have at least some respect at the table due to the way I play and what I have to show at showdown time. I hate to not have at least a 70% chance of winning when the cards are shown. Anyhow, I get 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in LP and limp with two limpers already in. CO calls, SB folds, BB completes. So there's 5 to see the flop:

10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

BB checks, 1st limper bets, 2nd limper calls, I decide not to monkey around with the draw possibilities and raise. CO stone calls, BB calls, 1st limper who originally bet folds(!), 2nd limper calls. Now I'm certain there's a heart draw and/or straight draw out there.

Turn:

Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checked to me, I bet, CO calls, BB calls. Other guy drops out.

River:

10 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Now I have a full house and it's checked to me, CO folds, and BB raises!! Now BB is someone who "respects" my play and not a clueless person. But then I 3-bet him and he calls. I had a sinking feeling about this, but how many people would pop him back here? Is calling or raising correct?

Results are in white font below (highlight to read):

<font color="white"> BB shows 10 8 offsuit for the bigger full house and takes it down. In retrospect, I was vey lucky the queen appeared on the turn otherwise he'd have a clear 4-bet because he had mentioned that he was afraid of me having QQ. I'm just wondering if raising the checkraiser was a good move???</font>

[Ulysses]

Easy 3-bet.

[astroglide]

the easiest of 3bets.

[cepstrum]

hi garland -

contrary to what the other posters say, this is _not_ an easy 3-bet, nor any kind of 3-bet at all. this is a call, and it's very thin.

you say this guy isn't clueless, and because of that i am discounting completely aa, kk, and j9. why? because the non-clueless would do something before the river with any of those hands.

anyway, when your opponent check-raises the river, he is either bluffing or has a big hand that wants to get paid. it is not a mediocre hand unless he is very skilled or an idiot. since you describe him as "not clueless," i'll assume that he's neither very skilled nor an idiot.

so he could be bluffing a straight or flush draw. if he is, your 3-bet is worthless, because he won't pay off.

or he could be betting a strong hand that wants to get paid. these could be at (8 ways), kt (8 ways), jt (8 ways), tt (1 way), t8 (6 ways), t5 (2 ways), 88 (3 ways), 85 (3 ways), qt (6 ways), qq (3 ways). so you have the best hand 24 times, and the worst 24 times. assume that he will at least call with all of these hands. what does this mean?

if you call, you break even.
if you 3-bet and fold to a 4-bet, you win 1 bet 24 times, and lose 2 bets 24 times for a loss of 0.5 bets per hand
if you 3-bet and call a 4-bet, it's worse, because now some of those combinations you still beat aren't in your opponent's hand anymore.

so call for the size of the pot, but realize that it's a coin flip or close to it.

remember, to continue the action on the river, you need to be a favorite WHEN YOU ARE CALLED OR RERAISED, not just overall.

good luck

cepstrum

p.s. even if he could play kk, aa, j9 this way, and call your 3-bet with them, the 3-bet would still be a very small loser.

[astroglide]

preflop: 5.5 sbs
flop: 9 sbs
turn: 3 bbs
river: 3 bbs

13.5 big bets in the pot, and it's a very thin call? folding here is terrible poker.

[Ulysses]

That analysis is incorrect. You can't just look at "number of ways" someone could have a hand and assign probabilities like that. You have to take the action into account and weight probabilities accordingly. You completely eliminated AA, KK, and J9 based on that. You need to do that w/ all the hands to do an analysis like this. Why do you think he would definitely "do something before the river" with those hands but not with 88 or TT?

Given the action, it's way more likely than 8:3 that he has a hand like AT than a hand like 88. And it's much more likely than 8:2 that he has a hand like KT than T5, since T5 will be much more likely to see the muck pre-flop.

This is definitely not a "coin-flip or close to it" on the river. The most common outcome here will be that his opponent has trip 10s and calls the 3-bet.

Edited to add: I read the part about BB "fearing hero had QQ" and just assumed a raise. As astroglide points out, it was an unraised pot. Given that, it's closer than I initially thought. Nonetheless, my general point still stands - hands like 88 or TT will be less likely given that action and should be weighted accordingly. And any ten will likely checkraise the river and pay off a 3-bet. So, I definitely still think this is an easy 3-bet.

[astroglide]

he was the bb, and the pot was unraised. t8/t5/85 are possibilities.

[Tommy Angelo]

I'd make it four bets on the river almost every time. I'm trying to imagine the opponent I would not make it four bets against and it's not easy to conjure this person up. He'd have to either be someone I viewed as very very strong (totally unreadable and unpredictable) or very very weak (totally unreadable and unpredictable).


Tommy

[chesspain]

Although I often have to fight against my "inner weak-tightie" on the river, even I think this is an auto 3-bet.

[elysium]

hi garland
the BB unlikely has two pair before the river, you would have heard from his two pair by then. yeah, there's some chance of that but before you alter betting direction with a power-house holding that might leave bets on the table, you must have strong hard evidence well over and beyond your best instincts. that 'he wouldn't raise without a boat' isn't enough. he must also have given you some evidence by way of action that suggested that kind of strength. no one is so tight that he only raises with a boat against his solid opponent in this spot. oh o.k., there are some tight players like that, but what? he's not one of those type, is he? oh he is....i see. hmmmmm....

what, and he looks boatie or boatish as he raises? well, that certainly isn't good, but you must 3 bet anyway. why this is so, i haven't a clue. it's just something that you do. i always do it without giving it a thought. i will say this gar, you've got me thinking. you never know what you'll learn in a little chat.

he's tight and boatish....hmmmm. never heard that before. boatie....boatish....tight-like, hmmmm. why do i raise?

[SA125]

"he was the bb, and the pot was unraised. t8/t5/85 are possibilities."

In a 15/30 Party game, those are UTG or MP limping hands. I saw 95s UTG and 96s MP both limp and take it to the river. And win.

HPFAP? As they say in those Hertz commercials "uh, not exactly."

[Tommy Angelo]

"I'd make it four bets on the river almost every time."

What I meant was "five bets."

[Gabe]

For Tommy to say this has me kind of freaked out, because for me I think almost the exact opposite is the case.

Somewhere along the way my three bet in a spot like this has come to mean, “I have at least a straight.” I don’t know if happened because people see me playing so many fewer hands than most other player’s do, and assume I couldn’t have anything less. Maybe it happened at some point, when I was running bad and I wouldn’t have made it three bets with anything less. I don’t know what came first the chicken or the egg.

I mean, they know, that I know, that someone with a J9, would have raised on the turn. They know I see the two tens.

However it happened, there are, absolutely without a doubt, players that I play against, who when they make it four bets, against me, are not a favorite to have three T’s. To them, my three bet is at the least a straight. When these predictable and readable players make it four bets against me, they are favorites.

I am ready to ask for help. Please tell me what I can do. Do I need to make it five bets here as a dog now, to get action next time? I’m serious.

The last couple of weeks have been great. Tournaments are at the Commerce. Unpredictable and unreadable players are going five bets against me when they don’t have the nuts.

[DiamondDave]

You have a full house. I'd raise at least once against anyone except someone who doesn't follow the action but suddenly wants to know whose turn it is and how much he can bet.

[astroglide]

you certainly do not need to make it five bets to get action, nor do you need to make it five bets at all. do what you think is best, understanding that you have a very powerful hand.

[haakee]

Full houses are good. You should definitely 3-bet.

[bad beetz]

his play is very, very, very, very consistent with a ten only, which you beat.

Even if not, just remember that you have a full-house, which is sweet, and three-bet.