Pot odds vs. Stack Size

[BolliTrader]

This is what's been keeping me up late at night and I was wondering if any 2+2ers have had the same internal debate.

Situation 1
Stack size is T900 (small stack), 5 players left on the BB. After posting, I have T700 with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. All limp making the pot T1000. The flop comes 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifj /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB checks to me. What do you do here? I check hoping to see the river for free. The big stack (UTG) bets T200. All fold back around to me. I'm pretty sure I'm beat now, but I have odds to call (6:1 vs 3:1 to the river I think). Problem with a call is the river is going to cost me a bet as well (if not all in). Calling the bet leaves me with T500 and I'm pretty much pot committed. He will call an all in raise. Should I put my tourney on the line for this draw? Is calling even an option?

My thoughts: I would like to think I fold this most of the time waiting for a better a hand, but in actuality I probably call more often than not, which I can't imagine being anything but the worst play I can make here, then call a bet after the turn /images/graemlins/confused.gif, neither is a diamond I fold to the bet on the river and am crippled for the remainder of the tournament. (I SUCK!!)

Situation 2
Short handed, I am big stack on Q /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the button. I raise (3x) to steal or see a flop. BB (tight aggressive player w/ 2nd stack) calls (AK or medium PP I assume). Flop comes T /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. BB bets less than pot. If I push him all in and lose he becomes big stack and I'm still in 2nd. If he's on pockets he folds and I get the chips right there. I think he will because the small bet doesn't fit his style). What do you do?

My thoughts: The way I see it I have 15 (flush and straight draws) outs right now which wins more than half the time. I push all in he calls showing AK. I hit the 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the river to win.

I guess what I'm getting at is is it better to ignore positive pot odds in a Sit 'n Go when it could cost you that tourney or do you always take a positive pot odd play? If yes, at what point do you start taking Positive pot odd plays?


Thanks,
Derek

[Al_Capone_Junior]

There are times when you should pass on slightly positive plays when in tournaments, if losing those bets will knock you out, or severly hurt your chances of getting into the money. In situation 1, you're getting 1200:200 on a 4.2:1 chance of hitting ON THE VERY NEXT CARD. Getting 6:1 on a 4.2:1 bet is not a situation you should pass up very often, even on the bubble. Pushing in won't help you cuz you said he will certainly call. If there was a chance he'd fold, you might consider pushing as a better option.

On the second hand, it can't really hurt to get all your money in on the flop since you're the favorite here most of the time (unless he has a higher flush draw or a set). Still tho, if he bets small, you don't necessarily have to push it all in, you could see if you hit and save chips when you miss. If the stack sizes are large enough compared to the pot, it is possible he might bet enough on the turn to cut your odds down too much for you to draw, in which case you'd wish you had pushed on the flop. However, that wasn't the case in your example. With you being the big stack there, I'd seriously consider just pushing it all in there, where you are almost certainly the favorite to win. I might NOT do so if losing would put me in a position where it would be likely I would not get into the money tho.

al

[Bozeman]

I think you have to push allin first on that 3 diamond flop. The pot is big enough, your chances against top pair (no ace) are decent, and you may get smaller pairs to fold. Don't give someone else a chance to bluff at it first.

Craig

[X-Calibre]

In general, you aren't supposed to push small advantages in a NL tourney as you don't want variance to keep you out of the money. (though when you are short stacked you need to take all the chances you get)

It seems like your forgetting (or not aware of) the power of the semi bluff. Semi bluffing adds %points to your likelyhood of winning the hand.

In the first example, you are short stacked, you should have shoved all your chips in immediately. You are 1/3 likely to win the pot out right and any caller will give you more than 3 to 1 on your money. This is not bad for a short stack. However, an immediate raise on your part prob increases the likelyhood of you winning because many will fold to this bluff.

The second situation is more tricky, but an all in is ok if you can still play if you lose. your about 50% to win the pot out right and you have the added chance that he'll fold. However being the chip leader is a position you'd like keep. I'd be less comfortable about a shove here because this is a situation where you are playing a small edge in a tourney. I'd only make this move if i was very far ahead in chips or very far behind. Being chip leader with a very tight player to your left is a gassy situation. You should be able to grind money out of him all tourney long, why press your luck here?