Stars one-table satellite: KJ hand

[M.B.E.]

$27+2 NLHE satellite, first place gets $215 seat, second gets $28.

Seven players left, blinds 50/100, I am chip leader. The other players are pretty bad in general but I haven't been paying specific attention.

Two players limp and I complete in SB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif. BB checks.

FLOP: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif

The stack sizes at this point are 3690 (me); 1600 (BB); 885 (first limper); 1495 (second limper). There's 400 in pot. What's my play?

[t_perkin]

Ummmm....check and fold?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

A lot of hands that limped here might have a piece of this flop, but most of those hands would have to worry about a free play from a blind.

I'd tend to check and call here unless the pot gets overbet. You have 8 outs twice and a double belly-buster is a well disguised hand, so you may get paid off if you hit.

The other alternative is to go ahead and bet at the pot if you have a fairly tight image. Top pair or 2 pair is going to have a tough time attacking a blind that bets at this flop.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Why? He has a double belly-buster & 2 overcards. He can take one off unless one of the two larger stacks overbets the pot.

[M.B.E.]

As Kurn noted, I had eight outs to the nuts, plus six overcard outs. Against a hand like AT on the T-9-7 flop my fourteen-outer was almost exactly 50:50.

I bet out 1600 (effectively the same as moving in). My thinking was that I wouldn't mind taking the pot right there, but if I got called I was not in bad shape.

The big blind did call me with T2o. The others folded. A jack came on the river so I won the pot and the BB was eliminated.

In retrospect I don't really like my play too much. The amount of my bet was just too large compared to the current pot size. (If the pot had been 800 rather than 400, my play of moving in would have been much better.) I'm not sure I like Kurn's suggestion of check-calling (as long as one of the bigger stacks does not overbet the pot) because then I would have to fold on the turn if I missed -- plus if I hit the K or the J on the turn I wouldn't know whether it was good. Also if someone does have a set or a made straight, I don't think they would overbet the pot necessarily. An overbet from one of the big stacks would more likely be AT than TT, and if it is AT then my folding would be wrong.

[t_perkin]

Very sorry - I was (and still am!) rather hung over. I missed the double belly buster. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

I would try and make up for it by giving some advice on what you did do - but I would probably just say something stupid again so I will keep my mouth shut! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

very sorry

Tim

[La Brujita]

I would probably have made a pot sized bet trying to win the pot straight away, or buy a free card on the turn (if someone saw me as being able to cr on the turn). I think this is a reason btw to show check raising is part of your arsenal. There is a good discussion of this in HEPFAP.

Also, the great thing about your hand is there is pretty good disguise if you hit one of your nut outs imo.

Check calling is not a great option because it eliminates the chance to win right away and you can't buy a free card.

This point might not be entirely clear but isn't overbetting the pot cutting into your implied odds if you make your hand?

I want to restate a point that M.B.E. brought up in an earlier thread about betting with second pair. I think it is very hard to be a winning nl player in the long run without having the ability to effectively semi bluff.

I am rereading Ciaffone's text (for the third time) and I think there is very good discussion there re this point. Basically in nl you will have to show down the winning hand less often so it pays to be aggressive when you have nut outs.

Take my thoughts fwiw, as I mentioned in another thread, I played the worst hand I have played in 2004 last night and I am still a bit shook up.

T Perkin, don't apologize for giving advice. Everyone appreciates have their hands responded to.

[Zetack]

I like a 400 size bet. You have 14 cards that help you and eight of em give you near monsters. 400 isn't so much you can't get away from it and if somebody chooses to give you a real tester raise like doubling you up to 800 (I say that's a tester because now you are getting into territory where it starts to hurt to lose the pot but its not such a big raise that you can easily lay down your hand) you have a big enough draw that you can gulp and call.

And you really probably don't mind taking down the pot right there with just a draw. 400 is a nice pot builder, a potential pot winner, and an amount relative to your stack size that you can get away from.

The interesting question is what do you do if you do raise and get called and the next card is a blank...

--Zetack

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably have made a pot sized bet trying to win the pot straight away, or buy a free card on the turn (if someone saw me as being able to cr on the turn). I think this is a reason btw to show check raising is part of your arsenal. There is a good discussion of this in HEPFAP.

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting. When I play limit holdem I do frequently follow the HEPFAP advice of betting the flop then checkraising the turn when I flop a good hand in early position. I hadn't ever thought of applying that to NLHE, although I do tend to checkraise the flop quite a bit in no-limit. I will try this play in a NLHE sometime soon.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, the great thing about your hand is there is pretty good disguise if you hit one of your nut outs imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually I was mistaken when I said I had eight outs to the nuts -- it's only four. If an 8 falls the board will be T-9-7-8 so QJ would be the nuts and I'd be chopping with any other jack. Also not many hands that I beat could call my bet on that board. But if a queen hits, then my hand is very well hidden.

[ QUOTE ]
Check calling is not a great option because it eliminates the chance to win right away and you can't buy a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.

[ QUOTE ]
This point might not be entirely clear but isn't overbetting the pot cutting into your implied odds if you make your hand?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, kind of. The thing is, I might well have the "best" hand on the flop, in a sense. If each of my opponents has a pair with a kicker that doesn't hurt me, then I am far and away the favourite. According to twodimes, on that flop, put my KJ against T2, A9, and 76, and my KJ has 45.1% pot equity (compared to 24.1%, 16.7%, and 14.0% for the other three). Of course if someone has JT or KT, or an eight for the openender, or two pair or a set, or a made straight, that goes out the window.

The T2 is what my opponent who called me actually had. On the flop I had 49.4% pot equity against him, but if there had been four players in with one pair each, my pot equity would still be 45.1% even though I'd be getting much better odds. It's that statistic that made me wonder whether checkraising the flop would have been the best play. The idea being that maybe a ten would make a small bet and a nine would call, then I checkraise all in and either they both call or neither does or one does and one doesn't, any way you slice it it's not bad for me. But this is speculative anyway, because I have no reason to think that either of the players who folded actually had a nine.

I also do like La Brujita's suggestion of betting the flop to get a free card on the turn. It's just that that play puts me into a real quandary if it doesn't work, and an opponent bets on the turn after I check (assuming the turn is a blank). I'd probably have to fold, even though I'd still have eight outs at least.

[ QUOTE ]
Take my thoughts fwiw, as I mentioned in another thread, I played the worst hand I have played in 2004 last night and I am still a bit shook up.

T Perkin, don't apologize for giving advice. Everyone appreciates have their hands responded to.

[/ QUOTE ]
Absolutely, I always like reading responses to hands I post. No need for anyone to apologize. Thanks to everyone for responses on this thread.

[La Brujita]

As usual M.B.E. you posted a very interesting hand. My thought about implied odds was just thinking out loud, I still am not sure it is a valid point.

I wanted to respond to your post because I suggested check raising the turn as mentioned in HEPFAP. It is a great play in limit hold'em, but in a aggressive (normal by internet standards?) NL game, a check on the turn usually signals weakness to others and will often cause someone to overbet the pot. I love to check raise on the flop but don't cr on the turn very often.

I guess what I am trying to say is a check raise on the flop (which I love) might makes someone think you are capable of a cr on the turn. It just may be a dangerous play in nl. I only cr on the turn with a monster hand in nl for the most part.

By the way, are you a professional player? You sure sound like you know a heck of a lot about the game.

Regards

[M.B.E.]

Here's an idea.

Suppose in a NLHE tourney blinds are 100/200, I am chip leader with a huge stack, and an opponent minraises to 400. Everyone folds to me in the big blind with Th-8h. I think the minraise might be aces or kings. Anyway I call preflop so there's 900 in the pot, and my opponent has X chips remaining. The flop comes Qs-9d-6c giving me the double-gutter which will be very well hidden if I hit it. I check and my opponent bets 700. My theory is that if X>2500 I can call, and if X<900 (so that his flop bet puts him all in or nearly all in) I can call, but if X is between 900 and 2500 then calling is out of the question and I have to fold (or raise allin if there's a very good chance the opponent will then lay down).

The reason is, with eight outs the odds against my hitting by the end of the hand are 1.9:1, so when X<900 I can see both cards and will get better than 2:1 pot odds. The odds against my hitting on the turn are about 4.8:1, so even if I plan to fold on the turn when I miss I can call the 700 flop bet if it will win me more than 3360 when I hit (3360 = 700 x 4.8). The assumption is that if a 7 or a J falls on the turn I will get the rest of my opponent's chips; otherwise I will fold.

If X=2000 (for example) and my opponent bets 700 of that on the flop, I cannot call. If I did call and then hit the straight on the turn, the most I would win is 2900 (the 900 that went in the pot preflop plus my opponent's additional 2000) so my total implied odds are 2900:700 = 4.1:1. If I called the flop and then missed the turn, my opponent would bet his remaining 1300 and I would have to fold.

Is any of this correct, or am I mistaken? It seems strange that I can call my opponent's bet if the money is very shallow or very deep, but not in between. And if this is correct, what does it imply for my KJ hand at the top of this thread?

[allenciox]

This is a really tough hand to play out of position. Very few flops are clearly defined with this hand.

Why don't you flex your muscles here as chip leader? Say you raise 600 here... since your opponents are limping they will likely fold... if you get one caller they are likely to have a lower pair, A(T-2), or KQ... the other hands that have you dominated would likely not have limped at this stage of the tournament. The only hand you are a significant underdog to in that group is KQ.

Most likely they will all fold, and you will pick up a $350 pot for little risk to your stack.

[M.B.E.]

Yes, good point, preflop raise would have been better.

[La Brujita]

Rereading this thread I think it highlights what is great about nl he; there are many ways to play a hand because you are not forced to show down a winner nearly as often as in limit he.

That being said, I frankly don't love a big raise out of position into a few bad players who have limped holding kj. The problem I see with it is in my experience bad players tend to call many raises with moderate holdings (while a good player would fold or reraise).

If that is the case you are stuck in the worst position with a trash hand that might well make you the second best hand. IMO you might want to pick another hand to make this play.

Back to the interesting nature of nl, this may be a good play if the likelihood of folders is great. I love to reraise big with many limpers in a somewhat passive table because picking up pots without having to show winners is a great way to keep making money. I don't know if this makes sense but I like to make this play with a middle pair rather than unsuited big cards because I may well be ahead to start or the flop will define my hand if I am behind.

Shifting thoughts to your hypothetical M.B.E, I think your point is valid all though I must admit I have read it four times and am still mulling it over. The one thing that is clear to my in the hypothetical is that anyone holding AA with the flop you detail should bet at least the amount of the pot to make a drawing hand get incorrect odds.

My only other thought is the hypothetical reminds me a bit of various examples in PLNLP (section 8 drawing hands). I don't know if you all have the book handy but if you do take a look at that section and see what you think.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
My only other thought is the hypothetical reminds me a bit of various examples in PLNLP (section 8 drawing hands). I don't know if you all have the book handy but if you do take a look at that section and see what you think.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, thanks; that section has good ideas but in general the authors assume you're playing on deep money (at least deeper than is typical in tournaments). I've read most of that book a few times, but find it kind of hard to digest. I understand that Stewart Reuben is coming out with a book on Pot Limit and No Limit Holdem, which I will definitely read.

The few times I've played no-limit holdem in a ring game I got slaughtered; the plays that work well for me in tournaments just didn't work at all. I think that if I enter the WSOP I will first need to practice a lot playing online NLHE ring games, since the WSOP is structured for deep stacks.

I refined my hypothetical slightly and posted it in the Poker Theory forum (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=538182&page=0&view=collap sed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=&vc=) for additional feedback.