HUGE losing streak, or do I just suck?

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

I've been playing online for about 7 months. Over 25,000 hands (the last 4 months) I'm up 3 to 5 BB per 100 hands at 1/2 and 2/4. The last three weeks (maybe 2,500 hands) I'm down 130+BB. I know this is relatively short run, but could the first 25K hands be the fluke and the last 2.5K the real me?

[balkii]

Mmmm probably not. 25000 hands is usually more than just a good run. And your losing streak isn't that bad. I had a -150BB, 5300 hand losing streak last month, and didnt break even until 8000 hands. And I hear it gets a lot worse than that.

[mosch]

Could it be? sure. It's also possible that the real you longs to be a star on Broadway.

25,000 hands at an avg 4BB/100h is 1000BBs.
27,500 hands with a profit of 830BBs is an avg 3BB/100h.

Assuming you're still playing the games you played for the first 25k hands, there's no mathematical reason to believe that you can't win anymore.

If you're telling yourself you can't win because you dropped a couple hundred bucks though... that might do the trick.

[JTG51]

You are ignoring the obvious answer.

All 27.5K hands are the real you. As has been posted here hundreds of times, big swings are the norm for this game. Get used to it.

[Webster]

Don't fear. 3 weeks and 130 BBs is not that bad. Heck, I'm in your caliber and losty 100BB in ONE week. Looking at my hands it was just hellish bad beats over and over.

Step back - look at your hands and look for leaks. All you can do is remember that THoldem is streaky.

After losing 100BB in a week I went on a holy tear and won it back.

What happens to me is when I'm on a month long rush (Janurary) I tend to start to tilt a tad and play hands I would normally fold.

Just sit back and go back to basics.

PLUS - you are PROBEBLY more like the 25K with a TING bit of 2.5K tossed in. LONG RUN BABY!!

[Styles]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been playing online for about 7 months. Over 25,000 hands (the last 4 months) I'm up 3 to 5 BB per 100 hands at 1/2 and 2/4. The last three weeks (maybe 2,500 hands) I'm down 130+BB. I know this is relatively short run, but could the first 25K hands be the fluke and the last 2.5K the real me?

[/ QUOTE ]

4BB/100 x 25,000 = 1,000BB - 130BB = 870BB/27,500 = 3.16BB/100

yeah, we feel your pain

[Rico Suave]

Hey bigbait:

I just ran through a similar streak as you. I had played over 35k hands at 1/2 and 2/4 and was averaging about 2.5-3.0 bb/100hands. (I am a very average player) when blamo, I drop about 100 bb and then spent the next 4500 hands hovering around the -100 to -125bb figure. I did not really panic until about the 3000 hand mark and I started to really question whether the previous 35K hands were a fluke, just like you were thinking. I kept looking at my stats and the play of my hands, and I could not figure out why there was such a dramatic change.

I just tightened up a bit more, minded my position a bit more, and plugged away. Finally, at about 4500 hands into the streak, some of my hands started to hold up, I hit some of my draws and I had a +110bb day. Things seem to be a bit more "typical" now.

Anyway, I guess my point here is just to let you know that a 2500 hand bad run is very possible, and it is unlikely that your previous 25,000K hands were a fluke. It will turn around.

--Rico

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

While I've missed a few hands in PT here and there, reading these responses has prompted me to look back at my PT data. 25,009 hands 20K of which are at 1/2 and 2/4. Total average BB/100 is 3.98. I appreciate everyone's reminding me to keep in mind the long run. I think I have a bit of a "losing mindset" right now, and will set about eliminating that mindset, tightening up and reminding myself about the basics. I noticed I've been playing some full-tables the same as short-handed tables, and convincing myself other players are bluffing when overcards hit, only to hand over a few extra BBs instead of taking my lumps and accepting the losses. Thanks to all, I probably should've posted this in "Psychology."