Stiraght-forward Hand Maybe : JTs in the CO

[GuyOnTilt]

So I'm looking through some PokerTracker hands for a friend, and I come across this one.

Our Hero is in the CO with J /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG+1 limps, EMP limps, MP lmps, and LMP limps. Hero raises, Button folds, Blinds fold, and all 4 limpers call. 5 to the flop for 11 SB's.

Flop comes: 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

It's checked to our Hero who bets. UTG+1 folds, EMP check-raises (has notes that say "solid t/a"). MP folds, and LMP cold-calls. Hero just calls. 3 to the turn for 8.5 BB's.

Turn comes: 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif[9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/club.gif]

EMP bets, LMP calls, Hero calls. 3 to the river for 11.5 BB's.

River comes: T /images/graemlins/club.gif[7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/club.gif]

EMP bets, LMP folds, Hero raises.

Questions:

1) 3-betting versus calling the flop: pros and cons? Expected value of both?

2) Call or raise the river?

3) If you raise, do you fold to a 3-bet?

4) What range of hands do you put EMP on after the flop c/r? Turn bet? River bet?

GoT

[MarkD]

I put EMP on 9T, A9s, 77, 55, or possibly 99.

Call me weak tight but I think Hero can fold the turn easily when he doesn't improve. Letting overcards sway the decision, when the overcards complement the board so nicely, is a good way to bleed chips IMO.

Assuming he calls the turn I think calling the river is best. If I raised I would call a 3-bet because I hate folding the river with a viable hand. Another reason I wouldn't raise the river.

[Nate tha' Great]

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4) What range of hands do you put EMP on after the flop c/r? Turn bet? River bet?

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My best guess is something like 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif, e.g. a pair plus a draw. Along the same lines he could have a pair of 8s or sixes. He could have A9s, especally if its in diamonds or clubs. He could have two pair. Given the size of the pot, I think a set could also play it that way rather than waiting for the turn. I There are a lot of limping hands that got hit up on this board.

If that supposition is correct, then I think he'd keep betting out on the turn and river with almost any of those hands.

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3-betting versus calling the flop: pros and cons? Expected value of both?

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It would depend on my table image. If I felt that I could convince EMP that I had an overpair, I'd probably try for a free card.

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2) Call or raise the river?

3) If you raise, do you fold to a 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on the hands that I outlined, I figure it's roughly 50:50 that I'm ahead, and that he's almost certainly going to at least call my bet. If I were absolutely certain that I could fold to a 3-bet, then it's a neutral EV proposition, but I'm not absolutely certain that I can fold to a 3-bet since he might 3-bet with a counterfieted 2-pair. So I'd call.

[sthief09]

I just came across this.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
1) 3-betting versus calling the flop: pros and cons? Expected value of both?

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I much prefer 3-betting with what is likely a pretty big draw. The added benefit of a possible free card on the turn makes this play the best choice.

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2) Call or raise the river?

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Pretty aggressive, but you know the TAG is gonna be in there value betting his 9, so raising looks pretty good. The danger is that the ten is so connected with the types of hands the TAG could hold, but since you can fold to a 3-bet, I like the raise.

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3) If you raise, do you fold to a 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ] Yes.

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4) What range of hands do you put EMP on after the flop c/r? Turn bet? River bet?

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flop: spades, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s... any set.
turn: spades looks less likely.
river: same.


my 2 cents.
Eric

[BigEndian]

1) I don't like a 3-bet here. You could have as many as 10 outs plus the backdoor draw, but with all the taints on those outs it's probably more like 7.5. You aren't going to run anyone with a 3-bet that wouldn't run from the CR in general since they're caught in between.

2) Raising requires putting your opponent on exactly a 9, 88 or a strong 5 (like A/images/graemlins/spade.gif5:spade) and these make the most sense from his play. It also requires him calling you more often with a hand you beat, so A5 doesn't really come into play since he's be a goof to call a river raise with that. So you have to put him on exactly a 9 or 88. I'll say call, no raise. That's just too tight a margin.

3) Of course.

4) Covered above, but I don't think TT is out of the question. He could also have the hands you don't want him to have like T9, 87, 76. 98 is also in there. 97 is an outside shot. And a spiked set, but very unlikely to be a set.

- Jim