Small set, bet the river?

[bdk3clash]

Table is loose and passive; no specific reads on my opponents.

Results later.

Party Poker 2/4 (9 handed)
bdk3clash has 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif and is MP3

MP1 limps, bdk3clash limps, Button limps, SB limps, BB checks

Flop(5 SB): 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, BB bets, MP1 folds, bdk3clash raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls

Turn(6 1/2 BB): 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, BB checks, bdk3clash bets, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls

River(10 1/2 BB): 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB checks, BB checks, bdk3clash...

[Nottom]

Bet and call a raise. Unless they have something like A5 /images/graemlins/club.gif, it's pretty unlikely someone has a 5.

[mmanne]

I would have value bet the river, but there's a decent chance you're beaten.

Also, I like to raise with baby pairs, if there is only 1 player, and I think it'll get me the button, opinions on that strategy?

[brian0729]

bet the river?

Yes

[steveyz]

Depends on how tough that one player is and how well you play post-flop. In general, I'd muck with 55 and lower and raise with 66 depending on the player. If it's an aggressive player who will play back at you with nothing, I'd just fold cause it's really difficult to know when you are beaten. Save the battle for another day when you have more ammo.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I like to raise with baby pairs, if there is only 1 player, and I think it'll get me the button, opinions on that strategy?

[/ QUOTE ]

Generally, I don't think this is a good idea. Small pairs thrive on implied odds--you want the rest of the LP players, the button, and the blinds to stick around for when (ok, if /images/graemlins/wink.gif ) you spike your set.

[bdk3clash]

I checked, button checked.

SB had A/images/graemlins/club.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif
BB had A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Button had 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif3/images/graemlins/heart.gif for two-pair.

Lesson: Bet the river for value and worry about it later.
MHIG, and who knows how many bets I missed.

[symak]

I don't agree. I do not see the value in a bet here. Most of the time you would only get called, or raised, by a hand that is better.
How often will a hand worst then yours call the bet? Do you really think with a board like that you would get a caller and still have the best hand more then 50% of the time? I don't think you would. More then 50% is what you would need to show a profit on this play.
Even in the case you had here. You would have to think that the SB and BB would fold to the bet. Button might call, but if it was me I would fold as you have shown enough aggression to make me believe that you have me beat. The only way I would call is if I felt that you played very loose. Even then I might just wait for another time and a better situation to call you down.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
How often will a hand worst then yours call the bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think with a board like that you would get a caller and still have the best hand more then 50% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely, unequivocably, undoubtedly, yes. This isn't a game with tough opponents. Low limit players on Party couldn't fold their laundry if they had to. I know it's unfair since I now know what my opponents held, but there is no way the player with two pair would have folded to my bet, and the player with AK would likely have called, as well.

My real concern was a check-raise from one of the EP players.

I guess it comes down to this: Is it possible that one of my opponents has a 5? Sure. Likely? Meh.

I still say in retrospect I should have bet.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you would. More then 50% is what you would need to show a profit on this play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, and the players on Party are truly bad enough to make this bet profitable. If they have the straight, so be it.

I think in general it's OK to pay off a "fluke" draws (gutshots, backdoor flushes, etc.) when they come in, because by their very nature if you check out of fear of them, you'll miss bets more often than you'll save bets.

[ QUOTE ]
Even in the case you had here. You would have to think that the SB and BB would fold to the bet. Button might call, but if it was me I would fold as you have shown enough aggression to make me believe that you have me beat. The only way I would call is if I felt that you played very loose. Even then I might just wait for another time and a better situation to call you down.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I try to play against bad opponents and not 2+2ers.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
How often will a hand worst then yours call the bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

NONONO stop it. Stop people saying this, PLEASE.

AAAAAAARRRGGGHHHHHH

[bdk3clash]

To summarize my thoughts: The notion of betting the river only when you want to be called is an important one. But believe me, at the Party low limit games, you want to be called.

[Dylan Wade]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I like to raise with baby pairs, if there is only 1 player, and I think it'll get me the button, opinions on that strategy?

[/ QUOTE ]

I felt exactly the same way a couple months ago. I posted a thread in here about the merits of raising small pocket pairs HU (due to the fact that there is a slight statistical advantage for the pocket pair, if both players are all in). However, Mason Malmuth responded to this thread and mentioned how this is not quite a good idea, even with position. Essentially, your post-flop performance will negate any tiny advantage you have pre-flop. Post flop, your strategy will be to "showdown"- while your opponent's post flop strategy will be smarter. In the long run, you lose money.

It makes sense to me.

[Dylan Wade]

People say it because it's a perfectly correct analysis in a tighter game. However, in the games online, they players are typically so loose that you should almost always bet for value on the river.

The river bet is completely decided by the how loose your opponent is.

[symak]

One other hand that no one has talked about that would have played and been a danger to your hand. 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif. So consider that no one has a 5 and that hand as well. Also a higher set.

I just think that if you play by betting marginal hands on the end it will only cost you in the long run.

I look at it this way. The fish are there and they like to give you money. Wait until you have the best of it for sure. It will be there. You don't need to push small edges. Just try to exploit the big edges.

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]

I just think that if you play by betting marginal hands on the end it will only cost you in the long run.

I look at it this way. The fish are there and they like to give you money. Wait until you have the best of it for sure. It will be there. You don't need to push small edges. Just try to exploit the big edges.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you do need to push the small edges. You need to push any edge you have. The only time you wouldnt push an edge that you know you have is if you were playing on a limited bankroll. Of course, we all play properly bankrolled for our games now dont' we?

[symak]

Don't understand what bankroll has to do with it. Please explain.

[brian0729]

I just think that if you play by betting marginal hands on the end it will only cost you in the long run.

And somewhere off in the distance the sound of Tosh and many other posters heads can be heard softly banging against a wall. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Nottom]

I'd bet this river in almost any game. You are most likely to lose in a loose game, and I would certianly bet it there.

Really, why does everybody think someone has a 5 here, why can't they just have overcards, or a pair, or some other hand thats actually likely for them to have. Anybody who can't bet the river in this hand has a serious leak in their game.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Anybody who can't bet the river in this hand has a serious leak in their game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I resemble that remark! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't understand what bankroll has to do with it. Please explain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if you were on a limited bankroll, pushing very small edges that are +EV in the longrun might deplete your bankroll before the averages have a chance to catch up. It is similar to why you dont like to play too many coinflips in a NL tourney. You only have a limited number of chips, and even though you might have an edge, you can't risk losing those chips because then you wouldnt be able to continue playing.

[symak]

I do see your point. Well explained.