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View Full Version : "I can't remember the odds of....." (rant #4)


Lori
02-13-2004, 11:53 AM
So here you are again, you're learning to use your tools but you are still lacking confidence.

In an attempt to gain confidence, you decide to learn the odds of hitting certain draws to TWO DECIMAL PLACES!

Okay, this is a serious priority issue.

You will hit a straight or flush draw once in three from the flop, odds learned, move along.

"But But But, Lori, the books say pot odds are important"

<rolls eyes>

Pot odds are fundamental to the game of poker, but you have other issues here.
Why are you trying to learn whether something is 2.1-1 or 2.2-1 when you still can't judge whether to call or fold a river bet for 12-1 odds, do you really think that you are good enough that it matters if you are slightly out.
In a game where everyone played the same, the pot odds would be more important, however, as long as you know you are in the right ball park for your play, their effectiveness is reduced by a margin.
Do you really think you can 'feel' the difference between 2.1-1 and 2.2-1?
If so, good for you, why are you in the small stakes forum?

Along with implied odds, analysing your opponents, putting your opponent on a hand, working out what your play will be on the turn, do you really think that knowing if something is 2.1-1 or 2.2-1 is going to make any difference in the final assessment?

This is small stakes poker, the other factors are huge.
In fact, in the 5% or so of cases where this difference would matter you probably gain something like 5% back in deception value anyway.

Imagine what fun it would be playing against a bot that relied solely on pot odds.
"Hahahah, it only has 1.95-1 about it's 1.96-1 shot, if I bet it will fold"
Yep, that's you that is.

The theme throughout these rants is that poker is a game.
Imagine the football team that always went for the best %age play on every down, it soon wouldn't be the best % play anymore.
Imagine a baseball pitcher who always threw his best ball.
He would become easy to read in no time, it is actually +EV to occasionally throw something unusual.

Rather than try to randomise your play yourself, let your slight inaccuracies do it for you.

Use the one in three rule for flushes and straights as your base for a given play.
It is a very rare occasion when the exact odds, when coupled with other factors, make the play on their own.

Get your odds sheet out, make some nice approximations, learn those and ignore the rest.
When you can calculate 3.45*2.72 in your head without wasting time on the more important things in the hand, THAT is the time to start learning your odds more accurately.

Poker is a game that incorporates science, it is also an art form that is learned through experience.
If you only use one or the other of the two aspects, you will never move on to great things.

Rant over.

Lori

colgin
02-13-2004, 12:09 PM
Great post, Lori. I totally agree. Please keep in mind, however, that many people who post here with discussions of exact pot odds are doing so with the benefit of being away from the table and are probably just using good approximations (or so I hope) while in the middle of a hand.
Please keep on ranting as it benefits us all.

Colgin

Joe Tall
02-13-2004, 01:15 PM
I love the rant series, Lori, they are great Short Stories. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Imagine the football team that always went for the best %age play on every down, it soon wouldn't be the best % play anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

Every down, as every turn card, as every day, changes things in football, poker, and life. The key is to make the correct adjustment as that % play changes.

[ QUOTE ]
Imagine a baseball pitcher who always threw his best ball.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what the best do. They throw their best change up to set up their best fast ball. Keeping the batter on his/her toes, not knowing what to expect. It's knowing what pitch will bet the best one at that particular moment that makes them good.

Granted I, as always, have trouble interpeting diction and may have an arguement full of rhetoric here.

Or maybe I'm just adding to your point.

Peace,
Joe Tall

Jezebel
02-13-2004, 01:53 PM
I think the most important point is that when you factor in implied odds, there is no way that figuring immediate pot odds to a fraction of a bet has any benefit whatsoever. I look a pot odds as a starting point and adjust them up or down based on the situation. These adjustments are always estimates and I'll guess rarely within a fraction of a bet of reflecting the actual probability of future actions. Besides, I'm not that good at math /images/graemlins/grin.gif .......maybe if they let me bring an abacus to the table....

BigEndian
02-13-2004, 04:15 PM
I think your heart is in the right place, but I think you could be easily mis-interpreted. Ok, maybe you don't need to know the hard numbers or pot-odds vs the odds of your hand and against other hands and of your hand improving, etc, etc. But you should damn well know that these things are the cornerstone of sound poker.

I'll give a lame example. How many times have you heard people brand spanking new talk about how they're not sure they should raise their AKo after a school of limpers? They only say this because they don't understand their hand, the odds of their hand and the value they're getting on the crowd coming along.

People even complain that they don't like it when a crowd comes along and they have AA. I mean, for Christ sakes, most of the time they get cracked!! Again, not understanding the math at play leads you down the path of weak poker.

Sure, you don't need to understand odds to 9 decimal places. I myself am horrible at a) memorization and b) math. I'm a shoot from the hip player. But you need to make sure you read and do your homework on the why and how of odds. You use this knowledge throughout your play and then you keep these things in mind when you're reviewing your hands after the fact as well.

- Jim

Tosh
02-13-2004, 04:43 PM
Perhaps when you've done with this series of rants you could release them all in a book.