How Experts make Decisions under Uncertainty

[PokerHorse]

There have been some interesting studies released recently on how fighter pilots and top athletes make split second decisions under uncertain conditions. I believe these will
help many poker players as well.

When situations come up at the table, there is not suffient time for calm reasoned thought. Your subconsious takes over and must make a decision based on the relevant variables before any explicit reasoning occurs.
The first item that researchers found is that, whatever the endeavor, a prolonged learning period of at least 1000
practices needs to take place before someone can start to accurately make correct choices at the unconcious level.When subjects have been exposed to complex patterns, eventually they are able to learn those patterns and make choices that are far above the levels of chance, yet they cannot verbalize why or how they make these decisions.The learning is truly implicit, processed entirely by the subconsious mind.
When subjects were presented with new uncertain information
that contradicted the information they had previously learned,they weighted the information in a manner consistent
with BAYESIAN MATHEMATICS!(move over Chris Ferguson)
Subjects gave increasing weight to the new information over time , revising their estimates to gradually integrate the new info with the already learned information.What this confirms is that people can process information in comple mathematecal ways without knowing bayesian math in the first place. The findings suggest that for our game of poker , that at the expert level the line is very fine between a totally math based plyer such as a Chris ferguson, and a TJ Clouter for example.

When people encountered the new information, they were able to put aside their expectations based on the prior learning and create a new basis for decision making.
This what seperates the experts from us wantabes, because there is a natural "confirmation bias", that we humans have that leads us to seek out information that confirms our original expectations and causes us to ignore contradictory information that goes against what we believe.
(you have a strong hand but ignore the fact that your being re-raised etc etc, you have to call because....etc)

Our confirmation bias is what keeps us from making more accurate decisions in a Bayesian fashion when the new contradictory info hits us. The experts are able to make lightning fast decisions and integrate new info . Fast and Flexible are the keys, along with alot of experience.
We all knew this unconsiously ...right??
But the main conclusion is that there is a much smaller line bettween expert intuitive, and totasl math based ev players, than once thought.

These findings explain to a certain degree why, for example
you may correctly be thinking that someone is bluffing although you can't quite put your finger on why at the consiopus level. Your subconsious is picking up on some info that doesnt quite fit the pattern of 10000s of trials.
We need to learn to act on these situations. The experts do.
I will write another post on how we can all become better bayesians in order to improve our poker .
Hope this gets some of you thinking.

[ZeeJustin]

Nice post. Thank you. Welcome to the forum.

[sam h]

Very interesting. It is a strange aspect of a forum like this that the type of hand analysis that goes on is often not actually done to the same degree in real poker situations. Afterwards, when posting a hand, we often rewrite into history a thought process that really occurred largely at the subconscious or intuitive level. This is probably especially true of online multi-tablers - the "whack-a-mole" approach JV referred to in a recent post.

In the future, it would probably be better to post this kind of stuff in the psychology forum.

[anatta]

[ QUOTE ]
type of hand analysis that goes on is often not actually done to the same degree in real poker situations

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, unless you go into the Roy Cooke huddle, its hard to believe some of the details you get in a post, and even more in the response. Even for old Roy, I doubt he thinks about everything he writes, but maybe so, he is, as I understand it, given a lot of leeway in his thinking time, and from his book, Play of Hands, he is without a doubt a super-knowledgable player. Its true that the more you play, in the blink of an eye, quite a bit of analysis is done automatically.

[SA125]

Sounds very much like Mike Caro's assumption that, no matter how much experience you have, your actual response in a hand is somewhat whimsical.

It sounds thoughtless, but it's trying to show how much instinct and emotion outweigh the cerebral part of the process when we have 10-20 seconds, depending on position, bewteen the time we get our cards and the time we have to react.

Athletes though? Math doesn't have much of a factor with superior teams or athletes skills or instincts, except on the scorebaord.

[bernie]

planning ahead. decide what you will do depending on the next card, opponents reactions (both action-wise and bodylanguage)

every street isnt independent of the other. build on it, narrow the holdings (if possible) and play accordingly.

on the next card decide what you may do for each action an opponent may do. factor in a semi bluff or whatever, and go from there. i see too many players lately taking way too much time making a decision that isnt even borderline. if it is borderline, pick one and go. analyze it later and learn from it if you screwed up.

experience breeds speed. dont overthink, just play.

b

[bernie]

the more experience you get with opponents, and playing in general, the quicker you can factor in more information. you will see many similarities in many opponents play that you can use against most of your 'typical' players.

then the atypical players will stand out. thus, more attention can be given to their play. using hands you're not involved in is a great spot to watch these players and get a line on them.

but many just look at the keno board.

b

[Lori]

experience breeds speed. dont overthink, just play

I honestly believe that this is why many people do more badly than they expect when they step up to a new level.

They are trying to make sure they make the "right" play, rather than just playing the game that they know.

Edit: On a related note, consider the number of sportsmen who mess up under pressure.
This isn't just due to the body and mind failing to function, it is because of them thinking rather than doing.

Lori

[SA125]

Well said.

[SoBeDude]

Great post.

I eagerly await your followups.

-Scott

[PokerHorse]

What the study is saying, is that athletes as well as others who have to make quick decisions process in a bayesian manner once enough experience is attained, without the knowledge of mathematics.In other words your brain functions this way once you have enough experience.

The top players or poker experts are able to process new incoming info and adapt, where most of us even with much experience suffer from "CONFIRMATION BIAS", which leads us in the poker world to, for example..overplay aa.kk in the face of strong information that our hand is not good. You can think up many more scenarios where we fail to process new information that a hand should go a certain general way.
Being aware of confirmation bias can help you to be ready for uncertain situations that come up in hands, especially
when you have taken the lead early but get significant resisitance etc.

good luck

[Indian Ocean]

Good Post.


So One line summery is: PLAY MORE POKER.
GOT IT!!! i got nooo problem with that?

[SA125]

Point taken. Well done.