Need help about Odds formula

[bouh]

hi,

I need some help about odds calcul. Let's say I have 2 hearts in my hand, and the flop had 2 hearts too. I get 9 outs for the flush. The pot is $10.

the odds to get a flush from flop to river is :
1 - (((47 - 9)/47) * ((46 - 9)/46)) = 0.34
(1 / 0.34) - 1 = 1.86
so 1.86:1

the odds to get a flush from turn to river is :
1 - ((46 - 9)/46) = 0.20
(1 / 0.20) - 1 = 4.1
so 4.1:1

I now try to get the 'max' bet I can do on a $10 pot. If I am on the flop I get $5.4, on the turn I get $2.4 (using my previous calcul).

When I read posts (or web sites) about odds I see (few) peoples using the flop to river formula to calcul the odds and the majority seems to only use (47 - outs) / 47.

Using one or another formula give differents result as you can guess so my question is what formula should I use to calcul odds (and know my max bet allowing) when I am on the flop and when I am on the turn.

I hope you did understand me, english isn't my first langage :/

regards,

(And I hope this thread won't be deleted like my previous one ...)

[Henke]

First of all, I assume you're talking about NL. My experience in this area is lim x->0 /images/graemlins/smile.gif

If you use the "flop to river formula", you're assuming that you will see the river. Hence, for the calculation to be correct, you'll have to estimate how much you will put in on the turn and how many opponents you will have there. Otherwize you're applying the "effective odds" out of context. But I think a more or less standard play in PL-NL is to bet the pot from late position when you have an A-high flushdraw. If you get called and get a free card, the bet was +EV. And if there's some probability your opponents will fold, the EV is even greater!

Ok, speculation time /images/graemlins/smile.gif
I don't think zero-EV bets are the way to go in NL (except the situation above), because it will make your hand very easy to read (small bet=>weak draw, big bet=>strong draw or made hand). I could be wrong though, since I don't know how to play NL /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

//Henke