BIGRED
02-11-2004, 01:08 AM
This is my first post in the Probability Forum. It has to do with flopping a 4 card flush and knowing if it make sense for me to build up the pot by raising.
Ok... I'm not a stats person, but I did study probabilty for a semester in college so this is what I'm thinking. Let me know if I got it right.
If I have a 4 card flush after the flop, then the chances of me ending up with a flush is "pretty good". With the turn and the river coming, I have 2 chances to hit my flush card.
So,
P(getting a flush given I have a 4 flush after the flop)
= P(hitting on the turn) + P(missing the turn and hitting the river)
= (9/47) + [(38/47) * (9/46)] (Did I get this right?)
= 0.35
So based on this, how do I proceed with the betting if I wanted to manipulate the pot odds in my favor... of course this is assuming I have Axs. And to simplifiy the matter, let's say noboday will get a full house or better, even if the board pairs in the process of me getting the flush. The assumption is if I get the flush I will win.
Ok... I'm not a stats person, but I did study probabilty for a semester in college so this is what I'm thinking. Let me know if I got it right.
If I have a 4 card flush after the flop, then the chances of me ending up with a flush is "pretty good". With the turn and the river coming, I have 2 chances to hit my flush card.
So,
P(getting a flush given I have a 4 flush after the flop)
= P(hitting on the turn) + P(missing the turn and hitting the river)
= (9/47) + [(38/47) * (9/46)] (Did I get this right?)
= 0.35
So based on this, how do I proceed with the betting if I wanted to manipulate the pot odds in my favor... of course this is assuming I have Axs. And to simplifiy the matter, let's say noboday will get a full house or better, even if the board pairs in the process of me getting the flush. The assumption is if I get the flush I will win.