If you're thinking of going pro, go read this post

[Ulysses]

Seems like every day another 2+2er decides to go the "online pro" route. I wish you all the best of luck, but I think a number of you would be well served reading this post I just made. Thanks to GOT for sharing his results, good and bad.

GOT's results (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=holdem&Number=521572&Forum =All_Forums&Words=122&Match=Username&Searchpage=0& Limit=25&Old=allposts&Main=519042&Search=true#Post 521572)

[Nottom]

Another interesting post on the subject in Homer's "Streaks" thread from a couple months ago.

Streaks (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/favlinker.php?Cat=&Entry=6741&F_Board=smallholdem& Thread=445039&partnumber=&postmarker=)

[fluff]

Results schmesults...I have a log9 pattern mapper, so I'm guaranteed a winner! So there.

Ok, seriously though...that is very sobering. I have currently data for 200 hours of one table play. With a WR of 2BB/hr and SD of 15BB/hr I can't even be 95% certain that I'm a winning player yet. The 95% confidence interval puts my winrate anywhere between -0.07 BBs and 4.07 BBs. And 5 % of the time it's going to be outside of that range still.

[stripsqueez]

playing poker for a living is no doubt hard - its hard because poker is hard - ie you have to deal with a wildly fluctuating income in the short term - its also hard because it will become like work and for many the will to work isnt all that strong

frankly though the figures in this post dont scare me - take a look at davidross - we all assume what he tells us is the truth - that means that if your capable of doing the work and know your limitations the fluctuations are not that extreme - davidross is obviously a solid player but he is a long way from being as good as he could be yet on a weekly basis he wins most of the time - i dont know the figures but i'm guessing he wins say 80-90% of the weeks he plays

the internet provides huge opportunity to play a lot of hands in a short space of time - the impact of the "swings" is therefore dramatically reduced playing on the net when looked at in terms of time spent playing

my view is that its about bankroll - 300 BB's ?? - lot of crap to think thats enough - not because the standard deviation calculations are wrong but because its impractical

if you bought a business that generated say $100,000 of profit a year you would happily pay $100,000 for that business - to make $100,000 a year playing poker you wouldnt likely need more than say $20,000 for a bankroll - bizarre then that a pro wouldnt have a very comfortable bankroll

i dont mind the fluctuations because i still play for fun - she who must be obeyed is not so impressed and complains that there is no certainty to what my hobby makes - this was easy to fix - i have a fat bankroll of about 400BB's and i have a seperate pot of money of about the same size - i know my hourly earn rate for the games i play over a reasonable period of time so i just add up the hours i have played since my last withdrawal and as extra precaution withdraw 80% of that - i plan on giving myself a bonus assuming my hourly rate is accurate every 3 months or so - it may be that after 3 months my win rate will change - i will then adjust my withdrawals but i need never worry about how much i make in a given session, day, week, month again

no more fluctuations for me

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
my view is that its about bankroll - 300 BB's ?? - lot of crap to think thats enough - not because the standard deviation calculations are wrong but because its impractical


[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably more of a misconception about what the 300BB figure represents. That figure, as far as I know, is for a self sustaining BR, but not for a BR you want to live off of. If you plan on withdrawing money you have to calculate your bankroll differently and will likely come up with a figure much larger than 300BBs.

For example, if you plan on playing poker 40/hours a week and decided you need 1K/week to live on. Then you need to reduce your winrate by $25/hour when calculating your BR requirements. So if you are winning $30/hour you need to calculate your needed BR based on winning only $5/hour.

So for example, Mr_Pro makes $30/hour playing 3 tables of Party 3/6 with an SD of $120

Using BruceZ's formulas from this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/favlinker.php?Cat=&Entry=3064&F_Board=genpok&Threa d=207100&partnumber=&postmarker=) gives the following BR requirement for a 1% RoR.

B = -(120^2/2(5))ln(.01) = $6631.45, which is over 1100BB for someone playing 3/6.

Fun, fun.

[Franchise (TTT)]

Nottom, you're using the formula correctly, but your numbers are way off to begin with. A 3/6 player who plays multiple tables should not need nearly that large a bankroll.

You should probably focus on making calculations with the winrate/table/hr numbers instead of the aggregate. Playing 2 tables per hour or playing 1 table for 2 hours makes no statistical difference (as long as you're calculating the statistics from when you're actually playing two tables, as opposed to playing one table and extrapolating it to 8 tables to say you could be making $600k a year).

I think the problem with your post is that you took a $40/hr SD and $10/hr winrate and multipled each by 3 to get the numbers you used for the formula. The correct way to do this is to multiply the SD by the square root of the number of tables you're playing, and to multiply the winrate by the number of tables you're playing. If you look at the formula, you'll notice that gives the same result as the $10/hr winrate and $40/hr SD player.

[TimM]

which is over 1100BB for someone playing 3/6

I'd cringe at keeping this much in a poker site. If I were doing this (and I'm not, I only hope to supplement my regular income with some night and weekend poker), I would open a separate checking account, linked to the intermediary payment site of choice. I'd keep the typical 300BB in the poker site and the rest in checking, and make the weekly draws from the checking account.

For someone in my position, I can't even see keeping 300BB's in a site. I'm doing a bit of an experiment in two tabling by playing one table at Party and one at Paradise, and I am perfecty comfortable keeping say 100BB in each. My goal is to never make another deposit, but if I had to put back some withdrawn winnings later it wouldn't be a big deal. Psychologically it would be nice to keep more in the accounts, and maybe later on I will.

[LivingLegend58]

Good post, but what does pro mean? Does pro mean "living" off poker?

[fluff]

There is absolutely no reason to actually have the 300-1100 BB at one poker site, or even at multiple poker sites.

But the idea is that that much is available somewhere reasonably accesible to you to ensure a risk of ruin of only 1%.

[MicroBob]

i have yet to read the attached link but had a couple of comments anyway.


"I'd cringe at keeping this much in a poker site."

the term 'bankroll' does not refer to how much you have at a given site. it refers to either how much money you have to your name OR how much of your money you can set aside for poker.

just because it isn't in the site does not mean it's not in your bankroll.
and just because you take money out of a site doesn't mean you are removing it from your bankroll (unless you pay some bills or buy a drum-set with it...then you ARE removing it from your bankroll).

i would NEVER EVER EVER EVER keep my whole bankroll on a single site....or even scattered on different sites. in fact, i now have more than half my bankroll floating in poker-cyberspace due to all the reloads being offered everywhere....and i cant wait to clear the bonuses so i can claim some of it back.



300 BB's is pretty small if you are going to be living off the income and i certainly wouldn't do it. 300BB's is a decent recommendation if it is a POKER-ONLY bankroll. this means you have a seperate bankroll from which you pay bills, rent, food, etc. 300BB's is essentially the advice for an UNTOUCHED bankroll.


here are my thoughts for going full-time pro WITH a bankroll from which the bills and other survival stuff are taken out weekly....

$10k is 2500BB's at 2/4.
3 tables of 2/4 at 2BB/hr each is almost $25/hr.
at 40 hrs/wk that's $1000/wk.

if/when i get to $10k for a bankroll AND have proven to myself that i can win 2BB's/hr at this level (60-80k hds in ptracker at 2BB win-rate) then i would feel reasonably comfortable giving this a go.
i would have enough of a cushion to survive a couple of really bad slumps... while still being able to pay the bills.

i'm pretty certain this is a responsible approach.
until then, i get to work anywhere from 20-40 hr's per week and hit internet-poker around 20-30 hrs. per week.

okay...i'm off to read the link now.

[nykenny]

$10k is 2500BB's at 2/4.
i don't think anyone needs 10K to play 2-4 no matter how many tables he is playing, unless he is not a winning player.

Also i think BR requirement should vary based on a player's skill level as well as other factors.

Kenny

[whiskeytown]

good post...

I've never understood why people don't try to go pro "part time" - take 10 or 20 hrs a week and treat it like a part time job - with your main job to fall back on...

the vast majority of them, over time, would probably realize that the money if it was full time play wouldn't be reliable enough to count on - and sure, some people (like Davidross) are doing it....but more out of necessity then laziness at finding real work (gawd, our economy sucks right now) -

I play fairly often on my days off, and keep track of my results...and boy, have I taken a nose dive from last week - something to keep in mind before I go pro....LOL

RB

[Nottom]

FWIW, I used my approximate numbers for the calculations so I think they are pretty close. I'd like to know which number you think is off?

The $30/hour number? That seems about right.

The $120 SD number? I certainly didn't just multply $40 X 3 since and SD of $40 seems way low to me. My single table SD is around $75 according to pokertracker. I think the $120 seems reasonably close enough for playing 3 tables to me.

Is it the 1% number for RoR? Thats just a number I came up with on my own, some might be comfortable using a higher number like 5% or something ... I'd prefer to be safe and would actually like this number even lower if poker was my only sorce of income.

I think my numbers are all pretty good, I just think people tend to way underestimate what the real numbers are, and never sit down and do the math themselves.

[Ulysses]

Bankroll req's for multiple tables (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=339841&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&vc=1)

[Nottom]

OK just for sh*ts and giggles, I'll run the numbers again.

Instead of Mr_Pro earning $30/hr he really is earning $10/table-hr which after taking out his $1000/week salary leaves him making an adjusted $1.67/table-hr

His SD is $75 (just using mine here)

So back to BruceZ's forumla we go ...

B =-($75^2/(2*($1.67)))*LN(0.01) = $7755.71 which is even bigger than my previous BR number.

Am I doing something wrong here or was I just right the first time?

[Ulysses]

I don't find your numbers surprising, given the effective winrate after taking out expenses.

[goodguy_1]

you can make $40-$60K a year with much lower swings playing multiple small NLHE, PLO or Limit Holdem games.I make $24-52 an hour depending on whether I play NL or Limit and how hard I want to push myself(3,4 or 5 tables)..I am control of this.The game can be very fun playing like this ..very low stress with small drawdowns and consistent wins..NL is my best game.You can play 5/6 days a week winning around 80% for NL or around 70% playing Limit if you are a very good player.You wont make 100K a year this way..you wont have huge swings either.Your really bad days are $300 losers your good days $500 winners.Ocassionally you will have a string of 2 3 day losers in a row but usually things are smoothed out becuase of the volume effect.More often you will be in the midst of 3-4 day winning streak .. This can all be done when beating a NL or limit game for $8-13 per table playing 3/4 tables...very low stress and a fine steady income..I been doing it for 2 years.To play B&M for a living you gotta play $15-30 to make a decent living...online poker has been a boon to true grinders like myself...guys that dont mind playing 20-30 table-hours 5 days a week.
If you want to make $50K+ consistently you're gonna have to have bigger daily swings and hourly sd's.I can make $40K-50K a year playing games with $60 per hour standard deviations..all becuase of the volume effect of mutli-tables.If games get harder this will change drastically...youi'll have to play higher for a comparable earn..if you cant cut it..you gonna have to play more tables or find another gig.

Facts are this ..many people talk about crushing multi-tables for big bucks at any limit.Not many players can do it every day ,5/6 days a week every month 45 or so weeks a year.I think you really need to love to play or else most burn out-if you can act as an automaton and still love the game with all its nuances,ups and downs and mega-frustrations..you got a chance.NL is a game thats is much easier to play for hours becuase it is more fun and creative..but at the same time at NL you need to be sharper than Limit..To play multi-tables not only do you have to be a very good intuitively but you have to be a focus freak similar to ADD types..and not just at high limits ALL LIMITS.


Everybody has losing days weeks and months ...if you dont you havent played long enough..you will


In other words many peoiple including myself are content with making $35K-$50K a year .It all really matters what your expenses are, your marital status etc.You dont have to have big swings to make an acceptable living at poker online ...B&M thats a different story..Me I need to make 2k a month but I usually make $4/5K on average.Many people are satisfied w/that, others are not..it's all a matter of what you need to live a comfortable existence.I had years where I was making much bigger money so this is big pay cut for me in last 2 years but it will do for now,,until I find another gig or push to play higher.I'm older thu and I want a home and kids someday so the kids thing makes me think about doing different things other than poker..
YOU DONT HAVE TO HAVE BIG SWINGS TO MAKE a good living online you need to find beatable games and grind the fock ouuta them..

[Franchise (TTT)]

This one seems much more realistic, since you're taking out expenses on this one and you weren't on the previous one.

Notice that if you don't subtract expenses, and use the new numbers (1% ROR, 75 SD, 10 WR), your bankroll (this is the one you should be comparing to your first calculation to see how off it was), will come out to ~$1300, which is actually less than 300 BB's.

[Franchise (TTT)]

Dammit, you were subtracting the cost of living in the first one. No wonder I was so far off. Argh.

Oh well, I'm going to stop confusing things now.