Pulled an Ed Miller or cost myself EV?

[Nate tha' Great]

This is from a Party 6-max game.

I'm dealt Q /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the Button. There are three weak passive players on my right (these players are quite loose, looking at perhaps 50 percent of flops), and two good aggressive players on my left (in the blinds this hand).

Anyway, the three weak passives limp and I raise. Blinds fold, the limpers call.

Flop is a rather dangerous 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. It's checked around to me and I check too.

Turn is the veritable definition of a blank, the 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Checked around to me again, now I bet (one caller). Another blank falls on the river. Check, bet, call, my hand is good.

Very interested in your feedback.

[BaronVonCP]

Probably a better play if you held AA rather than QQ. A bet will fold some non diamond hands that you could lose the pot to.

I'm gonna shut up for now until someone who knows something posts. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[GuyOnTilt]

I don't like it at all. There's no way you should be checking through on that flop with your hand. You're kind of mixing two concepts together I think: Checking through on the flop with a high overpair versus many opponents in a medium sized pot, and folding an overpair to a bet or raise on a very coordinated board with no chance of improvement. Neither of those apply here.

GoT

[chim17]

Seems like a dangerous spot to give a free card to me. I would bet the flop, if you get check raised I would call down and stay as long as another diamond didn't fall. However, by the way you describe the players I wouldn't expect a c/r.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Probably a better play if you held AA rather than QQ. A bet will fold some non diamond hands that you could lose the pot to.

I'm gonna shut up for now until someone who knows something posts. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

That why I thought it was interesting. Obviously, it would be tragic if I gave a free card to someone holding, say, a King (who would not have called *because* of the presence of the flush draw, when they might have otherwise) and another non-diamond king came on the turn. A similar argument can be made for gutshots.

This post has like 25 views already and just one person brave enough to reply. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Ed Miller]

How did I get dragged into this? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

But since you asked, I would bet the flop. Free cards are real bad for you, and the pot is not so big that you can't protect your hand with a bet.

[Alobar]

Bet the flop! I suck at poker and even I know that /images/graemlins/smile.gif What does checking acomplish except giving everyone a free card? If your going to wuss out, at least do it on the turn when its more expensive.

[cold_cash]

What if the pot was bigger?

[TXTiger]

Bet the flop, definitely. You are going to let some joker with a 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif take your pot by checking. You raised preflop. So he will likely fold thinking you have either a big pair, or very possibly a big diamond. If you check the flop he might hang in there with his 67o thinking you have no diamond since you checked. Bet Bet Bet

[Nottom]

You still have to bet even if the pot was bigger. Somewhere in one of those 2+2 books I remember reading about almost this exact situation and they say if you are going to check you need to have the Qd, but need to bet without it.

[Brain]

I think I bet the flop too. Either to see where I am (against a flopped flush) or to make 1 card draws pay (even though I think they're getting odds to call, my math may be hazy this late). Plus you've got the overpair too. I say bet.

[Ed Miller]

Ya, it'd be hard to come up with a situation with that flop and that hand where I'd check behind.

[mosch]

You're in a situation where you don't want a diamond, an ace, a king, a nine or a five to appear, and there are a few other cards that could be a hinderence as well, since you could easily end up with three cards towards a straight on board.

Checking this through seems like the worst possible play, as you lose money from people who would call with come hands, and you give free cards to people who might turn a weak hand (like a pair of nines or fives) into a winner (like a set of nines, or fives, or two pair).

The only way I like this play is if my opponent makes it.

[Bob T.]

Why wouldn't you bet the flop?

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[Joe Tall]

I don't like it Nate, not one bit.

I believe all the other similar flop/overpair hands we have discussed had different preflop action and much different flop action.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

I think you've got to bet the flop here. The passive players don't sound like they are the type to c/r, so your QQ are probably still good, unless they are loose enough to play 26s and now are afraid of the better flush. If they are drawing you must make them pay for the draw, plus you are still ahead. If they fold, that's fine, they would have folded after the turn too, unless they are drawing at a flush or gutshot and the free card you handed them gave the flush.

[Nate tha' Great]

I wish it were a hoax, like when GoT posted about having folded aces before the flop, but alas, I did play a hand that way last night. Won't do it again guys, promise.

Obviously, I'm not understanding very well when and where the concept (*not* betting the flop in an effort to maximize your win rate) should be applied. If, say, the pot had been capped before the flop? If the pot had been capped and I held AA instead of QQ?

thanks,
Nate the Confused

[Brian]

Hi Nate,

In Ed's hand, he had AA, the Flop was monotone, and someone in EP bet into him and there were several callers. In that situation, raising accomplishes very little. However, in that exact same situation, if everyone had checked to him, I am sure he would have bet.

Your situation is much different. No one has bet before you, and your hand is much more vulnerable due to Ace and King overcards. You cannot afford to give a free card here. If someone in EP had bet, and there were several callers, then I think the same principle would apply: Call, see what the Turn brings, then make your decision to raise when there is only 1 card left to come instead of 2.

-Brian

[Ed Miller]

Ya, it occurred to me after I posted that you were probably confusing the situation where someone bets, everyone calls, and you just call with the situation where everyone checks and you check. They are different.

Here's a good rule of thumb for when this play is appropriate. If you bet, would you be almost surprised if someone folded? If so, CONSIDER waiting for the turn. But in this situation, I can see a lot of hands folding... so I'd bet for sure.