Gutshot odds

[PYITE]

Same Party 2/4 game, 10 min's later. I am UTG+1 and pick up QJ. I've been tossing this from up front, but this table was boring, plus UTG limped. I limp. MP limps. Button limps. BB checks.

5 to the flop (5 SB) A K 9 two tone

BB checks. UTG checks. I check. MP bets. Button calls. BB calls. UTG folds.

Can I call here?

[looseasyourmom]

Yes, you can call here. The table seems fairly loose-passive with little raising (especially with AK showing). Plus with a good amount of callers, should you get the 10, QQ or JJ on the turn or the river, you'll be getting a decent payoff. And with the AK showing, should you land your straight, you'll probably find some people to call you until the end.

[BugsBunny]

Yoe *really* should have mucked preflop - then you wouldn't be in this predicament /images/graemlins/smile.gif

You're getting 8 to 1 on an 11 to 1 shot. But you're also getting some implied odds if your card hits. Note that even if the T hits on the turn you run the risk having the J or Q come on the river - which would probably mean a split pot.

I think it's a very close call and should probably be folded but may be playable for 1 card. The key is how much can you collect from the other players if you do hit?

If you don't hit the T on the turn then you're in check/fold mode.

[Catch of the Day]

You can but its a loosing call. 4 clean outs your KJ outs are probably deas to any AX KX, You are getting 8:1 on your call. Your implied odds are a little better as you will make up bets on the turn/river if you hit (assuming that no flush hits and the board doesnt pair) You need about 10:1 to call. Is your QJ suited?, Do you have one of the suit that is two to a flush. These might help your odds a little, but for the most part, there is no way you can call here...

[me454555]

Assuming theres no flush draw on the board, you getting 8:1 to call a 12:1 bet. If you hit it on the turn you got 2 streets w/double bets to make up 4 sbs. This is a fine call b/c theres a very small chance of a redraw.

If theres a flush draw on the board, then its a different story. I'd consider folding here b/c you may only be drawing to 3 outs and theres a chance of a redraw.

[Dynasty]

The call is slightly -EV. It's worth considering anyway because you are closing the flop action and are in a perfect check-raising spot if you make your straight on the turn.

Generally, you should save these calls for times when you have other outs such as when you have a backdoor flush draw with QJs. Or, if you've got an overcard with something like A4 on a board of T,5,2. Or, even better with two overcards when you've got QJ on a board of 9,8,4.

If calling with QJo after one limper is symbollic of one of your loose calls, you're pre-flop play is probably reasonable as far as tightness/looseness goes.

[PYITE]

Well, I did call. I also caught my 10 on the turn. Dynasty recommended CR'ing if I caught. I bet out. LP called. BB raised. I 3 bet. LP called 2 cold. BB called. River was a brick. I bet. Call. Call. Should I have CR'd?


Results below:



***** Hand History for Game 381092175 *****
2/4 TexasHTGameTable (Limit) - Sun Feb 08 14:19:43 EST 2004
Table Card Room Table 3001 (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Antman1 ( $181)
Seat 2: cahomeseller ( $98.50)
Seat 3: whitechips ( $166.50)
Seat 4: PYITE ( $115)
Seat 5: Pro8888 ( $52.50)
Seat 6: JennShovel ( $21)
Seat 7: ALanKearney ( $98)
Seat 8: bill777 ( $89)
Seat 9: KCSMAC ( $92)
Seat 10: rocknrollin ( $89)
Antman1 posts small blind (1)
cahomeseller posts big blind (2)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PYITE [ Qc, Js ]
whitechips calls (2)
PYITE calls (2)
Pro8888 folds.
JennShovel folds.
ALanKearney calls (2)
bill777 folds.
KCSMAC folds.
rocknrollin calls (2)
Antman1 folds.
cahomeseller checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Kc, 9c, Ad ]
cahomeseller checks.
whitechips checks.
PYITE checks.
ALanKearney bets (2)
rocknrollin calls (2)
cahomeseller calls (2)
whitechips folds.
PYITE calls (2)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Td ]
cahomeseller checks.
PYITE bets (4)
ALanKearney calls (4)
rocknrollin folds.
cahomeseller raises (8) to 8
PYITE raises (8) to 12
ALanKearney calls (8)
cahomeseller calls (4)
** Dealing River ** : [ 4s ]
cahomeseller checks.
PYITE bets (4)
ALanKearney calls (4)
cahomeseller calls (4)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $64 | Rake: $3
Board: [ Kc 9c Ad Td 4s ]
Antman1 balance $180, lost $1 (folded)
cahomeseller balance $78.50, lost $20 [ 9h 9s ] [ three of a kind, nines -- Ad,Kc,9h,9s,9c ]
whitechips balance $164.50, lost $2 (folded)
PYITE balance $159, bet $20, collected $64, net +$44 [ Qc Js ] [ a straight, ten to ace -- Ad,Kc,Qc,Js,Td ]
Pro8888 balance $52.50, didn't bet (folded)
JennShovel balance $21, didn't bet (folded)
ALanKearney balance $78, lost $20 [ Ah Qd ] [ a pair of aces -- Ah,Ad,Kc,Qd,Td ]
bill777 balance $89, didn't bet (folded)
KCSMAC balance $92, didn't bet (folded)
rocknrollin balance $85, lost $4 (folded)

[bernie]

id call. but with reservations. dynasty mentions that you are closing the action which really helps. the 2 tone board you have to be wary of. especially if you hit your hand of the flush suit. then it can get a little dicey.

one reason you c/r the turn, is so the MP hopefully will bet, get some players in, and then you jack it. there are your implied odds going at 2sbs for each BB put in. if 3 opponents put in 2 BBs on the turn, that's 12 sbs.

i dont like the set of 9s play though. he had an easy flop raise.

b

[sfer]

Think cahomeseller learned the hard way why to raise the flop with a set and a draw heavy board?

[josie_wales]

Gosh, I guess I am in the minority here but with

1) the two tone board and
2) the pot odds not the best (I know implies = ok)
3) outside chance at a split
4) Pretty small pot

I'd fold...Is the too tight?

JW

[Trix]

I would also muck preflop, but that doesnt seem to be the interesting part.
I dont understand why people would call on the flop considering that they might loose on the river even though they hit on the turn, either to flush or boat.
Also could end up in a split.
So I would think that he would need somewhat better odds than 8:1.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold...Is the too tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think it's a 'must' call decision. i think you could play it both ways and be close. probably more of a borderline decision. if you're not comfortable in this situation, fold.

however, with the right players in the pot, leaning towards calling can be better. IMO.

b

[sfer]

If people are drawing to the flush and/or a pair of Aces or Kings stick around, the implied odds are probably there, but it's really close.

If he hits a non-flush T on the turn, he's better than 4 to 1 in front of the flush draw. And I think not playing a straight or flush draw because the board can pair and give someone a full house is too timid.

[webiggy]

The problem is that there was a flush draw on the board as I seem to remember him saying it was a two toned board. Considering that hitting a pair does you no good since there are likely overpairs out there, I might make one SB call and fold the turn if my card doesn't hit. (Oh and by the way, I didn't read the hand history before starting this post). Remember though that you could be in big trouble if a flush card hits on the river, then you're out big $$$. Definitely -EV; even considering implied odds, reality is that there are more ways for your miracle card to be trumped than you have chances of beating the current best hand.

Dynasty's point about the right conditions in which to play this hand is spot on. Playing QJ with 98X on the board is an ideal time to play for the gutshot assuming no preflop raisers. This scenario is discussed in HFPAP. You got lucky with this hand, but imo it was an ill advised play.