4 to Flush on Flop When To Bet and Check/Call?

[ThePopinjay]

Can someone break it down for me? I see people betting hard on this all the time, although with only 4.something to 1 odds to make it, I can't believe it's correct to bet.

[John Deere]

If you have 4 to a flush on the flop, that means that there are 9 of the suit still out there. So far you have seen your two cards and the three on the flop, for a total of 5, meaning that there are 47 yet to come. Nine of those make your flush. That means the odds are 9:38. Of course, you get to see two more cards, making the odds (9:38)+(9:37) = 38.7% chance of your card coming (please check my math). Translated to odds, that's 38.7:61.3, or about 1:1.6. So if you think (or know) that at least two other people will be seeing the turn no matter what you do, you should probably be betting, raising and re-raising your flush draw.

If it doesn't come on the turn, you are still getting 9:37, or just over 1:4, so you should probably take a free card if you are in position to do so, unless there are still 4 or 5 other opponents in the pot and you think they'll call.

You are not always going to make your flush, but betting your draw when you are getting odds to do so is +EV.

[ThePopinjay]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have 4 to a flush on the flop, that means that there are 9 of the suit still out there. So far you have seen your two cards and the three on the flop, for a total of 5, meaning that there are 47 yet to come. Nine of those make your flush. That means the odds are 9:38. Of course, you get to see two more cards, making the odds (9:38)+(9:37) = 38.7% chance of your card coming (please check my math). Translated to odds, that's 38.7:61.3, or about 1:1.6. So if you think (or know) that at least two other people will be seeing the turn no matter what you do, you should probably be betting, raising and re-raising your flush draw.

If it doesn't come on the turn, you are still getting 9:37, or just over 1:4, so you should probably take a free card if you are in position to do so, unless there are still 4 or 5 other opponents in the pot and you think they'll call.

You are not always going to make your flush, but betting your draw when you are getting odds to do so is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

whoa 38%? that sounds really high. i thought it was closer to 20%

[BradleyT]

1 - ((47-9)/47)*((46-9)/46))
1 - ((38/47)*(37/46))
1 - (0.80851063829787234042553191489362)*(0.8043478260 8695652173913043478261)
1 - (0.6503237742830712303422756706753)
= 0.3496762257169287696577243293247 (*100 for percentage)
= 34.96%

[BradleyT]

A super easy rule of thumb that was posted on here before:
On Flop
Outs * 4
On Turn
Outs * 2

In the flush example 9 * 4 = 36% which is pretty close to the real answer.

[ike]

Everything John said is accurate and important, but it leaves something very important out. A flopped 4 flush is a perfect hand to semibluff with, especially when you also have overcards, but even when you don't. That is, its also a good idea to bet your flush draw when there are only 1 or 2 other players to the flop if you think they might not be strong enough to call, especially if the pot is already fairly large (for instance if you raised preflop with a big suited ace). Another advantage to the semibluff on the flop is that (especially if you have position but sometimes even if you don't) it will help you to get a free card on the turn. Finally, playing draws aggressively is also beneficial to your earn on other hands. If players are used to seeing you ram and jam with strong draws they'll be more likely to give your big hands a lot of action. Taking all of these things together I think you have very strong reasons to play draws aggressively almost all of the time. The most important exceptions are scenarios when you're not confident that your draw will be good (small flushes are not usually in this category unless someone gives you reason to believe they're also drawing, draws to the bad end of a straight or straight draws with two to a flush, or flush draws on a paired board are all good examples however) or when you're absolutely certain an opponent will raise or call. Say he capped preflop and you are now heads up and your AKs hit a draw but no pairs. If you're confident your opponent has a pocket pair they're clearly not folding and you are not getting odds on your bets so in this scenario you should try to put as little money in the pot as necessary to see whether or not your draw hits (and obviously pump it if it does).

[BradleyT]

This is the micro-limits forum.