gutshot(?) checkraise

[Allan]

party


only one and the sb fold I have 98o in the BB and check.

The flop comes JTK rainbow. I check and it gets checked to the button and I decide to checkraise.

SOP?


Allan

[gonores]

I'm confused....how many players saw the flop?

[Allan]

Sorry,

2 people folded preflop (one mp and the sb) so 8 of us in for 1 bet a piece.......

Allan

[gonores]

I'd prolly try to just see the turn cheaply then. I don't think you're going to get many hands to fold.

[Nottom]

Horrible checkraise, why do you want people to fold?

If you had KQ on a x9T board the checkraise makes sense, but not with undercards where you will have to catch you gutshot to win (and could be drawing dead already). If you think you can clean up your outs by getting an A to fold, you are mistaken.

[GuyOnTilt]

I check and fold here.

GoT

[BugsBunny]

I don't think I c/r this one. You have an open-ender - but you really don't want the top end (Q) to show, since it's almost certain that one of the players is holding an A. Which means if the Q shows you're looking at he ignorant end of a str8 that is almost certain to have at least one player holding the top end.

You have 4 outs, so you can certainly call here and then try to keep as many people in as possible, just in case the 7 shows. If the Q hits I go into check/fold mode.

On the turn you need to hit your card in order to continue. Now if it's possible that the c/r will get you a free card to see the river then the c/r may be viable here. That's not too common (although it does happen). If you think you might be able to take the pot down right here then the c/r makes sense as well. But with 8 people in I think it's not very likely.

[Allan]

Would you mind explaining why.......

I'd like to see and understand everything you are considering here.


Thanks,

Allan

[Nottom]

Because you are drawing to a 4 outer that could very well be dead. Even if you hit and are good an A or Q or 9 on the river is likely going to cost you some money.

I personally would likely see the turn, but GoT is much tighter than I in these sort of situations.

[GuyOnTilt]

Would you mind explaining why.......

But of course. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

You have what appears to be an open-ender, but really it's nowhere near as good as all that. First, the top end of your straight draw really just gives you the ignorant end of a 4-card straight. Not something worth drawing to. The fact that this pot is multiway only makes that factor worse, since it's more likely one of your opponents holds an ace.

So now we've established that you really only have 4 outs worth drawing to. Second reason, the pot contains 9.5 SB's when the action comes to you on the flop before the rake. That's not enough to call with a 4-outer. There's 6 opponents left to act behind you who could raise, and kill your collective flop odds even more. Third reason, you can't even give yourself a full 4 outs for your draw. Why? Let's say you do hit your 4-outer on the turn. There are still cards that would counterfeit you on the river. Any Q or A or 9 on the river and there's a high likelyhood that you won't win this pot. One of those 11 cards will show up on the river after your 7 hits the turn about 23.4% of the time. So instead of giving yourself 4 outs, give yourself about 3.1 outs. So now you're looking at calling the flop getting 9.5:1 before rake (which may reduce these odds significantly depending on the limit you're playing) with a 3.1 outer with 6 players left to act behind you who could raise. Not looking so hot.

Of course, you do have implied odds. Let's just look at the action when it gets to you, and forget about the possibility of over-callers for now. You're getting let's say, 8.5:1 on your call after the full rake is taken, on 3.1 outs, which is a ~14:7 shot. So you lose your one SB 14.7 times for every one time you gain those 8.5 SB's. That means you need to be able to net 6.2 SB's on later streets. That doesn't sounds so bad, I guess, except that you're not closing the action here, so there's a decent risk of a raise from one of the 6 players on your left. How to adjust your pot odds accordingly depends on the looseness and passiveness of your opponents. If on average there will be a raise here 20% of the time, and there will be an average of 3.5 opponents seeing the turn, then your pot odds would be: [8.5 SB's in PF] + [4.2 SB's from your opponents] - [whatever the estimated rake would be by the end of the hand] : [1.2 SB's from you]. So assuming the rake will be 1 SB by the end, you should calculate your pot odds to be 11.7:1.2, or 9.8:1. Huh. That leaves only 4.9 SB's to be made up in implied odds on later streets on your 14.7:1 shot. That, of course, is way less than you'll actually get on average. So adjust those numbers that I ran according to the texture of your particular table, but it looks like unless there's a very high probability of a raise and not much chance for multiple overcallers, you have the implied odds to continue.

One other thing. What do you do when the Q or A or 9 DOES hit on the river after your 7 on the turn? Check and make a crying call to a bet? Sometimes perhaps, depending on the actual river card and the action. If you end up making that losing call half the time, that further deteriorates your drawing value, since it adds 1 BB of reverse implied odds 11.7% of the time.

Okay, two other things. You could already be drawing dead to a made Q9 straight and an A in somebody's hand. I'm not sure how to calculate those two factors into your drawing odds, and they're definitely very minimal. However, in close decision, these type of things swing calls into folds.

Okay, three things. /images/graemlins/smile.gif After your hit your 7 on the turn, there's also the possibility of an 8 coming on the river for a chop, which further decreases your calculated outs from 3.1. I don't want to go back and redo all that math though...But it should add 3 outs to your counterfeits, making 15, but I forgot we have to assume that a Q and an A are held in an opponent's hand, and also now a 9, so forget that. It will just about cancel out my miscalculations.

So once again, I'm proven wrong. By, myself. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Just glancing at the flop it looked like a clear fold to me, but the numbers don't lie and the numbers say that it's pretty close between calling and folding. The difference should be how loose and how passive your opponents are on the flop and on the turn. The more loose and passive they are postflop, the more you should be inclined to call here. Reasons being that there a better chance for overcalls on the flop and less chance for a raise, and there's a better chance you'll get multiple callers should you hit on the turn and bet out.

Somebody correct me if I've got something wrong here or I'm missing something...

GoT

PS. Don't forget to reduce the pot odds on your flop call according to the estimated rake by the end of the hand.

[GuyOnTilt]

That leaves only 4.9 SB's to be made up in implied odds on later streets on your 14.7:1 shot. That, of course, is way less than you'll actually get on average.

Don't know why I said that 4.9 SB's is "way more." It's actually probably just about right, and maybe a bit higher than you'll actually get on average.

GoT

[Bob T.]

I guess if you are going to play, then checkraise is the only way to go, because you certainly aren't winning if it goes to a showdown. I think folding is a lot wiser here though.

If you are going to checkraise with a gutshot draw, it should be a strong gutshot draw, like KQ on a J92 board, where you have overcards, as well as the gutshot, instead of drawing, to the idiot end of a four card straight.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[webiggy]

So Allan,

I guess you got more than you bargained for. Great post. GOT!

Iggy

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
Somebody correct me if I've got something wrong here or I'm missing something...


[/ QUOTE ]

Someone with 2 pair would have 9.1% chance (4/44) of making a full house on the river, a set would have 22.7% chance of making the boat. Not sure how to calculate how likely it is those hands are out there.

[Allan]

Not really,

This is exactly what I was hoping for.

Thanks everyone for the reply GoT and everyone else, seems pretty unanimous that I screwed up. BB down the drain........

Allan

[GuyOnTilt]

Thanks everyone for the reply GoT and everyone else

Thanks for asking me to work it out. I can't do calculations as complex as that in the middle of a hand at the tables yet, but the more I practice and think about it off the tables, the closer and quicker I get. Practice makes perfect!

GoT

[bunky9590]

Fold the flop. Its always good to get in the habit of NOT drawing at the ignorant end of the straight when the top side can really screw you over.

Not a turbo fold, but I fold here nonetheless.

[GuyOnTilt]

Fold the flop. Its always good to get in the habit of NOT drawing at the ignorant end of the straight when the top side can really screw you over.

I completely agree with you here, but I thought my calculations made it pretty clear that it's a very borderline decision, and one that ultimately hinges on the looseness and passiveness of your opponents. I thought it was a fold at first as well, but after running the numbers it looks like this could be a profitable call at most low limit tables.

GoT

[bunky9590]

your numbers looked good actually but I' not sure it would be a pos EV situation.

It is really really close. But if you figure in 2 pair filling up on the river after you made the straight, it swings to a fold for me.

In the heat of battle I fold that there.

But for godsakes don't checkraise.

I'm more aggressive here than most and even I wouldn't do that there.

[webiggy]

The only thing that the calculations may not account for here though is the times that the top end will be played as opposed to being mucked preflop, unless I read too fast and missed it.., /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I totally agree that folding the ignorant end is inherently the more profitable play. Of course, I've never played the bottom end of a straight.., /images/graemlins/wink.gif