OESD on a monotone board: good 3-bet?

[Nate tha' Great]

My opponent is very loose passive (70 VIP%, 1% PFR), and not all that strong a player. Party $10/$20, 6-max.

I have 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and complete my SB after UTG limps. BB checks his option.

Flop is 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

I bet out, UTG raises.

I 3-bet.

Here was my thinking at the time:

1. If he caps, I can be done with the hand.
2. If he doesn't cap, I think his most likely holding is a singleton /images/graemlins/spade.gif, and I have a good chance of taking down the pot if a fourth spade doesn't hit.
3. Hell, there's some chance that he *doesn't* have a spade, and is betting with a pair or something, and I can represent spades if one *does* hit.

Basically, I thought it was a good way to take control of the hand. The presence of the OESD is a bonus, but might be immaterial.

You like?

[kiddo]

If this guy really is passive - and I guess he sees you as aggressive? - I guess he isnt raising his draws against you headsup? He knows you will 3bet often and dont like that scenario. And even if he raise flop with a draw he will probably check behind on turn thinking: "He, there I got him!" So if you just call his raise, and if he checks on turn and if river is not a spade: Bet!

Not sure I would like to go to war with a tiny draw against a player not capable of folding. Players seeing 70% of the flops is normally the same player that will call all the way with not much at all even if a 4th spade comes.

If he is seeing 70% of the flops he can have a set, 2pair, 1pair+high spade, overpair... a lot of hands that he will never ever fold whatever you do.

No need to take control of the pot if he isnt capable of folding. Which hands do you think he will raise with on a 3spade flop that he will fold if another spade comes?

[gonores]

The problem here is that most players who play 70% of their hands but only raise 1% of their hands will almost always see their hands through to the end if they decide to raise anywhere postflop. It doesn't matter how many spades hit or don't hit. Trying to push around call stations who decide to raise is usually bad idea. I'd be very tempted to fold to his raise, given how small the pot is and the redraw factor that comes into play if you do hit. I might peel one off and release on the turn.

Doug