The worst laydown ever?

[Raiser]

Fairly new to the table, so no reads yet.

Party Poker 0.50/1 (10 handed)
Hero has K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif and is MP3

UTG limps, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls

Flop(10 SB): 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls

Turn(12 BB): T/images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, BB bets, UTG folds, Hero calls, SB raises, BB 3-bets, Hero folds, SB calls

River(19 BB): 7/images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, BB checks

Result in white: <font color="white">BB won with 3c4c</font>

[Trix]

Probably not...
But you have to see if the river brings a Club more...

[gt6062b]

Haven't seen the results yet, don't think it matters though:

PF looks good, 5 BB in pot

Flop looks good, not the place to try to get a free card or anything, so it's fine, IMO. 7 BB in pot.

Turn sucks for you, especially with the 2 raises. You called one (fine), 13 BB when it's 2 back to you, without even a nut flush draw. This is an easy, easy laydown.

You're only getting 6.5:1 when there's probably only 7 clubs left in the deck (only 6 if one has a flush, and the other has a draw), and you may have 0 outs.

Even though 7 outs with one to come is around a 6:1 shot, it wouldn't be correct to call, as you may be completely dead in the water.

Looking at the results, just seems you're being results oriented to me. I still don't think you had outs to make the 2 bet call on the turn, someone else may disagree. This seems pretty standard, but I've been accused of being weak-tight before /images/graemlins/grin.gif

-GT

[Trix]

Its 18:2, 19:2 if other guy calls...
What makes you think that BB must have A /images/graemlins/club.gif
I mean, there are tons of hands he would play from the BB for a single bet.

[gt6062b]

See there's a problem up top, he goes from 10 SB (5 BB) pre-flop to 4 people calling the flop and now it's 12 BB.

I think my numbers were right? If it's 18 BB, I'd say call. I don't think necessarily that the Ace is out, just staying that if my count was right, you'd have to be 100% sure that 7 clubs were out and that the Ace wasn't gone to make this slightly +EV?

I might be missing something though /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

-GT

[Trix]

Ok, you are right about the odds, just took the onces he had posted for turn.
I would call anyway most likely getting 14:2. (off the top of my head you need 5.5:1 if someone holds 2 clubs)
Thing is: people like any2 and they like them even more if the are suited, so chances arent that big that he will have the A /images/graemlins/club.gif in his flush. Also, it will only matter the times he does have it.

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

With the 2nd nut redraw, and BB most likely on a flush (not necessarily the nuts), I think this justifies a call to see the river.

[brian0729]

WT advice in this thread. I dont like the PF raise. I limp or muck here. New to the table I probably limp, if the table is aggressive I muck this in EP.

Raise the turn. At this point in the hand you have no reason to believe someone has made a flush and you have a draw to the second nut, raise.

[StellarWind]

Lot of good points have been made so far. My analysis:

The 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif is not just a flush card, it's also a straight card and a likely two-pair card. With two opponents bombing me, I'm going to dismiss the suggestion that I'm not behind.

The correct pot odds based on the narrative are 13-2. I'll assume that SB will call so we get 14-2. Because of the risk of having to pay off the A /images/graemlins/club.gif if I make my flush draw, I won't take credit for any implied odds for the river betting.

There is a really excellent chance that if we call SB will cap. Two potential callers is a pretty big incentive for him to do that. That would reduce our odds to 16-3.

With nine outstanding clubs, a flush will contain the A /images/graemlins/club.gif 2/9 of the time based on random cards, but we know it's really much higher than that. People love hands with aces and the KQT are all accounted for. Plus there could be two flushes or one flush plus the lone A /images/graemlins/club.gif. All told I'd say the A /images/graemlins/club.gif is out there at least 50% of the time.

There is another problem. Likely non-ace flushes like J9, 98, 97, and 87 are drawing to a straight flush. That's one or even two dead outs.

Nice fold.

[Zetack]

No its not the worst laydown ever. It ought to be a call. But because you have to think it likely to get capped behind you you have to consider it a likely 3 additional bets rather than two (as it turned out of course it wasn't capped) and because you won't be drawing to the nuts its not the worst laydown ever. But you do have the pot odds. And when you call 2 bets with the pot odds there for the third additional bet if it comes, you would get the opportunity to see the SB only call behind you. You then get to know that he, at least, doesn't have the Ace high flush.

If you'd called and they both check to you on the river, then you'd start feeling pretty good, one or both were on a small flush and the fourth suited card scared em.

I think its an uncomfortable call but one you have to make. Uncomfortable, because you anticipate a cap on a hand you are still drawing to, and because you don't know if your hand will be good if you river it. Obviously, if its an uncomfortable call its not the worlds worst laydown--anybody else have a candidate?

--Zetack

[Raiser]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like the PF raise. I limp or muck here. New to the table I probably limp, if the table is aggressive I muck this in EP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I'm in LMP after one limper. I thought a raise here was SOP?

[Raiser]

Sorry about the mixup with the pot size. I used the hand converter, so I'm not sure what happened?

[Raiser]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its an uncomfortable call but one you have to make. Uncomfortable, because you anticipate a cap on a hand you are still drawing to, and because you don't know if your hand will be good if you river it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was exactly my thinking. At the time I was pretty sure it would get capped and I was confident that there were at least two clubs out against me (giving me 7 outs) meaning I had to be getting better than 5.6:1 to call. And, since I wasn't drawing to the nuts I figured I should require better odds than that.

So, if I call the 3-bet and SB just calls I'm getting 7.5:1 pot odds. If SB pops it again I'm putting 3 more bets in giving me only 6:1.

I guess if I assume the SB will cap it it's a close call???

[brian0729]

Big unsuited cards are a big challenge at these low level games. After 1 limper a raise often times will leave you in a pot with 4 or 5 and you out of position, at these limits.

If you are at a tight table, the limper is loose and you feel you have a shot to get it HU against the limper or the limper and a blind I think a raise is ok. If a raise is only going to mean 5 see the flop instead of 7 or 8. Then I dont like it and lean toward limping hoping that the deck smacks me. If you flop top pair proceed w/ caution.

If its suited it makes a big difference and a raise is standard.

[Trix]

[Joe Tall]

With so many outs, I'd raise the turn w/TPGK and 2nd-nut draw. Call a 3-bet if he re-raises w/2-pair.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Joe Tall]

In such LL games where there are many players seeing the flop for a number of bets, I would be limping w/KQo.

Raise after 1 limper if you think you can limit the field.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Ed Miller]

I definitely like the preflop raise.

I, frankly, would have raised the turn bet. You have top pair and a big redraw to the flush. If I'm ahead, I don't want to give cheap cards to the guys behind me in this pretty big pot with three to a straight already on board.

When it is two bets back to you, you are getting 13-to-2 on your call. I think you call.. you have a nice overlay on the flush draw, and while the A /images/graemlins/club.gif could be out, something funky like a jack, queen, or king could give you the best hand as well. I'd put the money in.

I don't get into these situations very often, though, because I tend to commit myself with raises in the first place. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[bernie]

preflop raise is fine.

id have to know the players in this hand more to lay this down. you can figure one has the flush. which you can then figure 7 outs. making this callable. the other may have a flush out. so make it 6. still close, but callable.
you're getting about 6-1 on your call.

you're also kind of hoping it doesnt get capped here if you know you're behind. if you knew both had a flush, then id consider laying it down. but you indicate you dont know the players that well.

a turn raise would still be good. 1 reason is you may only have to call 1 bet coming back to you instead of 2. making it a much easier call and a laydown if you miss the river. though there isnt anything wrong with calling a single bet on the river to see a flush. you also may not even get 3 bet here.

b

btw...

dont base your title on hindsight in the fact you wouldve won since a club came on the river. would the title change if the club came and someone showed the ace?

[brian0729]

Bernie and Ed,

I am not trying to be argumentative but why is this PF raise good. At a the higher stakes games you play in I agree that a raise is much better, but when your raise is not going to thin the field much, why is raising better? I thought it was general consent that these big unsuited cards are bad multiway and you are still going to get that if you raise or not(unless the table is very tight, which we know is rare at .5/1). I have found this to be the case for me in the micro games atleast. This hand seems like the plaque if you are raising it at the micro level in most circumstances.

If the raise is simply to try to thin the field and you may have the best hand, I understand. I just dont like it.

[PokerNoob]

You raise it because it is better than the trashy cards everybody else is playing. He's in MP3 and nobody has shown any strength yet at all. Sure, there are times when the ace chasers are gonna get you, but there are plenty of times when you outkick and other times you bust the ace chasers with the straight for multiple bets. Its a raise for value.

[Ed Miller]

This pot ended up five-handed. I think there is no question that KQo has a significant edge preflop against four loose opponents.

I think you guys take the "big offsuit cards bad in multiway" advice too far. Do you raise six limpers from the big blind with AJo? No. But one limper from two off the button? Of course!

[me454555]

Yeah, thats a pretty terrible laydown, you have 4 outs to the nuts and 9 outs to the 2nd nuts (7 if you think you maybe up against a flush right now). lets say you only have 11 outs, your getting 9:1 on your call of the 3 bet needing only 3:1 to call to your 11 outs. Thats a weak lay down.

Even if my opponent showed me the A high flush on the turn, I'd still have to make that call b/c you getting 9:1 w/4 outs to the fh. You can probobly make back those extra bets on the river b/c the 2 turn raisers may have already hit their flushes and will probobly pay you off b/c the pot is so big.

[brian0729]

[Tosh]

Preflop the raise is ok, a 2nd limper would make it a call though IMO.

Raise the turn.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if my opponent showed me the A high flush on the turn, I'd still have to make that call b/c you getting 9:1 w/4 outs to the fh.

[/ QUOTE ]

he doesnt have a FH draw. he only has 1 pair on a non paired board. if he showed you the nut flush, id hope youd lay it down.

b

[bernie]

seems they kind of missed the fact that about 1/4+ of the table folded already between the limper and raiser. great time to raise this hand.

b

[me454555]

yeah, your right, I thought there was a King on the board too for some reason. Guess I read the post wrong, my boo.

[GuyOnTilt]

I raise the turn and call a 3-bet.

GoT