What are the odds of this..? Highly improbable.. (not a bad beat)

[Dentist]

I'll make this simple.
20+2 PL tourney on Stars

I'm in the SB with J 10 of diamonds.

1 limper.. so I call and the BB checks.

Flop - 7 8 9 rainbow.

I push in because I don't have many chips.

BB re-raises the pot size

Limper re-raises the pot-size.

WE're all all-in... here's what's turned over.

Limper 1: J 10 of clubs
BB: J 10 of spades

THREE people have J 10 suited and all flop the nut straight!!!

I picked up a 2nd diamond on the turn and was the favorite to win.. but the river was a blank so we all split and made NO money on the nuts...

Is this the most improbable thing you've ever heard of??

[cferejohn]

That's pretty good. I can't remember where, but somewhere someone posted a story about "the worst beat ever". Essentially someone was drawing to a one outer that turned out to be a no-outer because someone had the card he needed or it had been burned or something, but there was some confusion about a bet and some cards were reshuffled and the river was re-dealt, and the player in question ended up hitting his 'no outer'. I think it was a pokerpages article.

That's pretty good tho....

I did manage to flop the nut straight one time while another player flopped the same nut straight with a 4-flush and ended up hitting the straight flush. That was just two players tho...

[ThaSaltCracka]

ask BruceZ what the odds were, very crazy...

[ravenight]

That's pretty crazy. I did see a hand with AA, AA, JJ and 55 all all-in before the flop and a 5 came on the flop and held up to win (I think the JJ had a tiny stack left afterwards).

[Dentist]

Well.. I'm not an odds guy.. but there are 169 combinations of 2 card hands.. right?

Well. for 3 people to be dealt J 10 seems like it would be 169 to the third power, which is 1 in 4+ million chance.

The odds of flopping the nut straight with J 10 is probably around 1 in 100+

So, I think we're looking at an event that is very likely a 1 in 400,000,000 chance....

Why couldn't this have happened with the lottery or something..

[CrisBrown]

Hiya Dentist,

I've heard a story that the following hand was played. I didn't see it. It may be apocryphal. Anyway ... five players all-in pre-flop. Cards turned up. Four players have AK. Fifth player has 22. Not surprisingly, the 22 won.

Cris

[Dentist]

Wow.... that's pretty freakin' improbable too..

But what made this hand so special was that all 3 of the J10's were in the pot, and since they all had the nut straight all of them were turned up....'

Not to mention.. as the betting was going... I can't even imagine what was going through everyone's mind... I was flabergasted when two people pushed in over the top.. I really though I'd see a set.. maybe two pair.. and I could have believed 1 other J 10... but 2??

Here's the hand history
# 21 **************
PokerStars Game #274771792: Tournament #913638, Hold'em Pot Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2004/02/05 - 18:29:56 (ET)
Table '913638 18' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: mills (15750 in chips)
Seat 2: Haas (14968 in chips)
Seat 3: brix4u (9114 in chips)
Seat 4: zam88 (2558 in chips)
Seat 5: Quetico (12945 in chips)
Seat 6: LBCved (11542 in chips)
Seat 7: No.9 (14990 in chips)
Seat 8: TRICKYRIC (13210 in chips)
Seat 9: Karl Marx (12995 in chips)
zam88: posts small blind 400
Quetico: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to zam88 [Td Jd]
LBCved: calls 800
No.9: folds
TRICKYRIC: folds
Karl Marx: calls 800
mills: folds
Haas: folds
brix4u: folds
zam88: calls 400
Quetico: checks
*** FLOP *** [7s 9c 8d]
zam88: bets 1758 and is all-in
Quetico: raises 6716 to 8474
LBCved: folds
Karl Marx: raises 3721 to 12195 and is all-in
Quetico: calls 3671 and is all-in
Haas said, "nhs"
*** TURN *** [7s 9c 8d] [Qd]
*** RIVER *** [7s 9c 8d Qd] [2h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Quetico: shows [Jc Tc] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
Karl Marx: shows [Js Ts] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
Quetico said, "lol"
Quetico collected 10387 from side pot
Karl Marx collected 10387 from side pot
zam88: shows [Td Jd] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
Quetico said, "hilarious"
zam88 collected 2825 from main pot
Quetico collected 2825 from main pot
Karl Marx collected 2824 from main pot
Karl Marx said, "cant believe it"
zam88 said, "what the hell"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 29248 Main pot 8474. Side pot 20774. | Rake 0
Board [7s 9c 8d Qd 2h]
Seat 1: mills folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Haas folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: brix4u (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: zam88 (small blind) showed [Td Jd] and won (2825) with a straight, Eight to Queen
Seat 5: Quetico (big blind) showed [Jc Tc] and won (13212) with a straight, Eight to Queen
Seat 6: LBCved folded on the Flop
Seat 7: No.9 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: TRICKYRIC folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Karl Marx showed [Js Ts] and won (13211) with a straight, Eight to Queen

I guess the only thing more improbable would be if the flop had come J 10 blank.....

[ChrisCo]

I once saw a hand where I had pocket 4s and I hit a set on a the flop of J 5 4, 2 clubs. There was a big round of betting and another club fell on the turn. One of the 3 people that were in moved all in so I folded because I was scared of the flush. The other guy called and flipped over JJ and the other guy flipped over 55. WE ALL HIT A SET ON THE FLOP!

[Dentist]

In a live limit hold 'em game once I was playing in.. I was in a pot with pocket 10's.

The flop came 9 7 4
3 people in the pot
Betting was capped on the flop

Turn blank
Betting was capped on the turn

River 10

3 bets each went in on the turn.

Result:
I had a set of 10's
Another player had a set of 9's for top set
3rd player had a set of 4's...

I've seen some weird crap.

I've also held Q 9 of clubs once and flopped:
K J 10 of clubs... the turn and river also came all clubs and the person with the A of clubs raised me infinitely until she ran out of chips...

What are the odds of flopping.. FLOPPING.. the nut straight flush...

Man, I've seen some weird things in just 2 1/2 years of playing.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
That's pretty good. I can't remember where, but somewhere someone posted a story about "the worst beat ever". Essentially someone was drawing to a one outer that turned out to be a no-outer because someone had the card he needed or it had been burned or something, but there was some confusion about a bet and some cards were reshuffled and the river was re-dealt, and the player in question ended up hitting his 'no outer'. I think it was a pokerpages article.

That's pretty good tho....

I did manage to flop the nut straight one time while another player flopped the same nut straight with a 4-flush and ended up hitting the straight flush. That was just two players tho...




[/ QUOTE ]
That's Tommy Angelo's story on riveredagain.com
It's hillarious.

-SossMan

[bshanksj]

Theres a very similar story at the back of championship no-limit and pot-limit holdem (mcevoy and cloutier). A guy down on his luck for the day, call him Steve, moves in for about 10xbb (this is in a ring game). The next guy, call him Jo, picks his cards up so that the player on his right can see them then mucks them. TJ is on the button and calls with TT. The dealer then drops the deck on the mucked cards, the floorman decides that all the cards except Steve's and TJ's should be shuffled together again then the flop dealt. Steve turns over KK. The dealer deals the flop T x K, the turn x river T. The crux in the story is that Jo mucked TT!!!! Ouch /images/graemlins/confused.gif

bshanksj /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Jackal22]

I just had this happen a couple of days ago with spades. I held KJs, the flop was QT9 of spades. The turn was another spade. The person with the ace kept reraising me and betting was capped turn and river (river card unimportant).