When draws get expensive

[Nate tha' Great]

Technically speaking, this is a 10/20 hand, but I'm posting it in this forum 'cuz this is kind of a math-y hand and I think it fits here best.

Both of my opponents are very loose aggressive, especially the Button.

Party Poker 10/20 (6 handed)
NateThaGreat has A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif and is SB

Button raises, NateThaGreat 3-bets, UTG caps, Button calls, NateThaGreat calls

Flop(12 SB): 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif

NateThaGreat bets, UTG raises, Button 3-bets, NateThaGreat ____

[lil']

Betting the flop probably was not the best idea. You may have made it more expensive than it had to be. You have to think you are behind, out of position and drawing, and therefore you will get raised.

[J.R.]

Calls getting 18-2 (with a chance of a re-raise) in an aggro SH game. I would check the flop as well.

[Nate tha' Great]

I agree that betting out was a poor play. I think my insti-reaction upon seeing the flop was that I was going to at least look at the turn card anyway, so I might as well have bet to see where I was at. But I don't think that works so well against a couple of nutjobs who are going to pump the flop with or without a hand, and whether or not their opponents are representing a hand.

[LetsRock]

Maniacs or not, you're dealing with pot and implied odds here.

If you consider your A and K to be clean outs (and winners!) then I count 10 outs. If not, you have only 4 (let's not worry about the backdoor flush possibility shall we?) My numbers are assuming everybody not mentioned folded.

When you left off in the story you're getting 19 1/2:2 to call which will probably end up being 25 1/2:3 when it gets capped behind you.

For 10 outs, it's a pretty easy call. (3 1/2:1)
For 4 outs it's marginal at best. (10:1)

And if you're still drawing on the river, there's no way you'll have odds to draw to a 4 outer if it gets raised even once 15 1/4:2, but you should have good enough odds for the 10 outer 25:4.

I guess it boils down to how many outs do you think are clean?

(I'd appreciate any criticism on this thinking)

[LetsRock]

If you're planning on seeing the turn anyway, checking probably didn't matter as it will likely get capped if they're true maniacs.

[GuyOnTilt]

If you consider your A and K to be clean outs (and winners!) then I count 10 outs. If not, you have only 4.

I've been seeing a lot of this lately. You should never give yourself 4 outs or 10 outs in this situation. Poker isn't a black and white game; it's a game of odds and probabilities. In reality, our hero will have somewhere BETWEEN 4 and 10 outs on his flop call. You need to start thinking in terms of range of hands and the probabilty of each hand in order to gauge exactly how many calculated outs to give yourself. It's just never as simple as picking and choosing which outs are clean and which are not.

In this particular situation, though, it doesn't really matter, since he should call even with only his 4 Jack outs, given his huge implied odds versus the aggro-maniacs.

GoT

[LetsRock]

[ QUOTE ]
In reality, our hero will have somewhere BETWEEN 4 and 10 outs on his flop call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you in principle. But in this situation, where it's going to cost him maximum for his draws, doesn't he have to make a pretty early decision on what his opponents hold? He's not likely to get much "read" on the situation if both players continue to pump the pot no matter what, so don't you have to decide which end of the odds spectrum you're going to commit to for this hand?

The only cards that could hit the board, and don't help him but could alter his "read" would be a board pair because then even his straight could not be good. With that many "nuetral" cards left, how's he going to effectively "narrow" his read on the turn?

(Not arguing, trying to grasp your point in regards to this situation.)

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
He's not likely to get much "read" on the situation if both players continue to pump the pot no matter what, so don't you have to decide which end of the odds spectrum you're going to commit to for this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, I'm comfortable with thinking probabilistically. It's all but unavoidable at the 6-max tables.

I had something of a revelation when there was one of those "A Bot's Life" threads a couple of weeks ago which included a link to an academic article about a poker AI program (maybe you guys saw it). Basically, the program first tries to determine the probabilities of all possible starting hands for its opponents, and then figures out optimal strategy given each of those possible combinations.

I'm not as well-equipped as a computer to do these sort of things, but hopefully, with experience, I can come up with some reasonable guesstimates and plan accordingly. In this case, I figured that I had somewhere in the neighborhood of ~6.5 outs*, which made the hand a pretty easy call. But as Guy says, I think it's an okay call even with 4 outs because of the action these players would have given me on the expensive streets.

* I gave myself half an out for each of the overcards, then discounted the straight value some for redraws to full houses and chops.

[GuyOnTilt]

I agree with you in principle. But in this situation, where it's going to cost him maximum for his draws, doesn't he have to make a pretty early decision on what his opponents hold?

No, he really doesn't. Instead of putting his opponents on specifc hands, he should be putting them of RANGES of hands, and giving himself outs based on the probability of those hands.

Not arguing, trying to grasp your point in regards to this situation

Arging would've been fine too! That's what we're here to do!

GoT

[BottlesOf]

Technically speaking, this is a 10/20 hand, but I'm posting it in this forum 'cuz this is kind of a math-y hand and I think it fits here best.

Does math become less important as you move up in stakes?

Just kidding...kind of...

[DonWaade]

With so few outs I dont thinl that you can do anything but dare I say it. . . call. Not too many outs

[Trix]

First I wouldn´t have bet the the flop, but that seems to be pretty clear now doesnt it.
I dont think any of the 2 holds a J, so you would need 9.75:1 including implide odds to improve on the next card.
Since you already bet you will get 19:2(9.5:1) asuming UTG calls. If he raises and button calls 12:3(7:1). The UTG limp-Cap screams AA to me, could be AKs though I think most would just call with that. Buttons raise and calling two can be much stuff TT-AA, AK-AQs.
Since UTG raises your bet I think its pretty fair to put him on AA-QQ. Same with Buttons 3Bet: TT,QQ-AA maybe AQ if he is overaggressive. So the the important thing is that none of them is holding AK which would make it a split if you hit.
So I guess worst case for you is if UTG holds AA or KK and Button holds TT or QQ giving them redraws if you hit on the turn.
I´m not sure how to calculate this, so Ill leave it to someone else, Dynasty ?
But I think the implide odds is good enough for calling.

[GuidoSarducci]

Hmmmm... Well, this is interesting...

I'd call with the overcards.. If these guys truely are nut-jobs, they could have anything.

[LetsRock]

[ QUOTE ]
No, he really doesn't. Instead of putting his opponents on specifc hands, he should be putting them of RANGES of hands, and giving himself outs based on the probability of those hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I see what you're saying. Could you give me a sample of how you would calculate your outs in this situation?