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View Full Version : My first 20+2 sng

Morbo
02-05-2004, 04:08 PM
Second hand, I still have the starting stack of 1500, and I'm on the button with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Blinds are 10/20 and EP3 raises to 80. Folded round to me, I make it 250. BB moves all in and EP3 calls, also all in. Your move?
Kurn, son of Mogh
02-05-2004, 04:12 PM
So the BB goes all-in after a raise and a reraise and the orignal raiser calls. I'll fold. I can play from this point on with 1250.
Morbo
02-05-2004, 04:19 PM
Yea, so I thought aswell. Folded, but guess my reaction when I learned that BB had 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and EP3 had Q /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

And the board would have come my way, with both an A and a K. Even though the results after a fold does not affect whether it was a good fold or not, it sure hurt when I sat there with my 1250 stack /images/graemlins/smirk.gif
kerssens
02-05-2004, 04:22 PM
that's a pretty easy fold, to me at least
Al_Capone_Junior
02-05-2004, 05:22 PM
I must agree. You're quite possibly a dog here, as AA or KK is quite reasonable. Even if you're not a BIG dog, you might only be a SMALL dog, such as if they had QQ or such. You might be a favorite over one of them, but it's highly doubtful you're NOT a dog to at least ONE of them. Of course with two players, it's likely one of them has one of your aces, thus decreasing your odds of hitting. I'd fold too.

al
Al_Capone_Junior
02-05-2004, 05:29 PM
You have learned one of the harshest lessons of the SNG sea:

The morons don't go away just cuz you moved up in stakes.

Just to make you feel better, I ran it on twodimes.net:

pokenum -h as kh - qd tc - 7h 7s
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kh 512263 37.37 855583 62.42 2908 0.21 0.374
Tc Qd 418332 30.52 949514 69.27 2908 0.21 0.306
7s 7h 437251 31.90 930595 67.89 2908 0.21 0.320

So really you were just barely a favorite, and folding was fine. It was barely even money to call, but your chance of getting knocked out was 63%. Not enough of an overlay to make such a risky play.

al