My Thought Process on a Flop : KQs in MP

[GuyOnTilt]

So I've had a rough couple days in my normal game. In fact, they've been my worst two consecutive days ever. So to celebrate, I thought I'd play a session of 5/10! I decided to only play one table and really work on playing my A-game, and 20 minutes later this hand comes up.

The History:

UTG has only played 2 hands so far. One was an open-raise from EMP with KJs, and the other was raising from MP after one limper with 99. He played both well postflop, so it looks like he's a tight/aggressive player who's pretty solid.

I've only played two hands as well. One was a limp in the CO after 3 others with T8s, which I folded on the flop. The other was a limp in MP after one limper with 77, which I folded on the turn after it checked through on the flop. So I'm not sure what my opponent thinks of me, but he can't think I'm very aggressive.

The Hand:

UTG limps, EP limps, and MP1 limps. I'm next and raise with K /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif. Button cold-calls, blinds both call, limpers call. 7 to the flop for 14 SB's.

Flop comes: T /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checked to me and I bet, Button folds, blinds folds, UTG check-raises, and all fold to me. Now here's where I had to make some decisions. I almost timed out (2 or 3 secones left) before I finally acted, but I think I came to the right decisions. Maybe.

Things to consider on the flop:

1) Pro's and con's of 3-betting the flop.
2) Put UTG on a range of hands.
3) Estimate my number of outs.
4) Calculate pot odds versus effective/implied/reverse-implied odds on the flop.
5) Repeat #4 for the turn, BUT BEFORE THE TURN IS DEALT.
6) Have a plan for blanks and non-blanks on the turn according to previous considerations.

And most importantly...

7) Play the turn according to plan.

So what's my play on the flop and plan for the turn?

Results and Turn card to follow.

GoT

[Festus22]

OK, I'll give it a go though not ALL those questions.

Pro's of 3-betting: Turn free card, a chance to better define UTG's hand, representing a hand better than what you have.
Con's of 3-betting: Throwing money away without the best hand and limited chance to improve to the best.

UTG's range of hands: The big concerns are 10-9s (you're drawing all but dead) and J-10s (thus rendering your straight outs useless). Those are legitiment limping hands UTG. Would he check-raise a draw (maybe Q-Js)? Unlikely since there were 2 folds after you bet. Maybe 8-8 or 7-7? Possible I guess.

3. After thinking about what he could have in #2, I think you're drawing slim-to-none.

I think your only chance is to 3-bet and hope he lays down an underpair or something with a 9 (although I can't figure out what that might be). If he caps, I'd fold. And to be honest, I don't think folding to the check-raise is hideous.

If he calls your 3-bet, then take the turn free card. If he's tricky, he may call the flop 3-bet and try to check-raise the turn with a 10. But even if the jack hits, I wouldn't get too aggressive.

Lastly, hope for runner-runner clubs without the jack.

[Joe Tall]

I don't like the decision of 3-betting as you could be drawing dead and are possibly behind as what seems a solid player has just check-raised a field on a paired flop.

Having seen UTG open-raise twice and now limp UTG, it's difficult to put him a hand. There are 3 that come to mind quickly QJ, AT, or 99. I think I can eliminate 99 as he has raised it after limpers in the past. Do you think he'd raise ATo UTG? ATs, more likely. Therefore a variation of xT such as KT, QT, JT, with JT being more likely of a check-raise with a 3-straight on this flop+trips.

QJ is the most probable and I'd call the flop as you surely have odds to do so, in addition to the 3-flush.

Interesing post.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[josie_wales]

GoT,

He did not 3-bet preflop, thus I would probably exclude him from a AA, KK, QQ (or maybeAKs)type hand.

Also, he would not CR the flop with a monster (I dont think)

An OESD, ATs or JJ would be my guesses. For the OESD, only QJs would make sense, but would he limp with that? My thoughts are he is on ATs or JJ.

With JJ, you J out is no good and you are drawing almost dead.

With ATs you are looking to spike a J or an even better draw on the turn.

I would 3 bet him to know just which hand he has, then proceed accordingly on the turn.

Thus

[GuyOnTilt]

I don't think JJ is likely here, given his preflop aggression in earlier hands. If he's raising 99 after a limper, he'll almost certainly be open-raising JJ.

GoT

[GuyOnTilt]

There are 3 that come to mind quickly QJ, AT, or 99. I think I can eliminate 99 as he has raised it after limpers in the past.

I'd agree.

Do you think he'd raise ATo UTG? ATs, more likely.

I'm doubting he'd be playing ATo UTG. He seemed like a solid player, and solid players don't play ATo UTG. ATs, I'm not sure what he'd do. Personally, I still haven't made up my mind how to play ATs UTG at certain tables. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Therefore a variation of xT such as KT, QT, JT, with JT being more likely of a check-raise with a 3-straight on this flop+trips.

All of the above would have to be suited for this player to play them UTG. I'm assuming that was a given. Also, I didn't mention the table texture in my original post, but it was loose and passive except for the UTG player, so there are more than a couple reasonable limping hands UTG.

GoT

[gonores]

When I read how the hand played out, the first thought processes that popped in to my mind were

-put UTG on a range of hands
-figure out what UTG thinks you, Mr. Limpy McFold, could be holding

I doubt the guy is check-raising the two remaining suckers between you with something like trips...he'd want to keep them in if he had a T (eh...maybe he wouldn't want them in, since the pot is big, but if he saw the flop and decided he needed to win the pot ASAP, he'd bet out). Without a read on the entire table, I would 50/50 put him on 9 or the Bob T. UTG limping special of QJs. He smells weakness and tries to isolate Limpy McFold and his (hopefully, for him) AK or AQ. I'd 3-bet and hope he flat calls. Without being there, I couldn't be sure, but I think continuing the aggression on later streets would be a +EV move too.

Doug

Edit: After reading GOT's reply that the table was loose passive, hands like A9s, 89s or J9s are all possible candidates to me.

[GuyOnTilt]

I'm an idiot. I just reread my original post and realized that I left out some key factors. First, the table texture was loose/passive except for the UTG player. Second, the EP and MP limpers were both complete calling stations all the way, going to showdowns with hands like 2nd pair, even after constant aggressioin.

My bad fellas.

GoT

[Lost Wages]

Guy,

I don't think it's that complicated, the pot is huge, it's headsup and you have position. You want to give youself two ways to win. 3 bet the flop, he could have a middle pair which he might laydown to a turn bet. If he is drawing with you (to a straight or overcards) then you want to have the initiative in case you both miss. If he just calls the 3-bet then bet the turn no matter what falls. If he caps the flop then just call a turn bet unless you improve.

Lost Wages

[Alobar]

I'm not 3 betting this one. He very well could cap, and I think with the weakness you showed by taking so long to call, even if he doesnt cap he's liable to bet out the turn. Your only hope is if one of the big over cards hits on the turn and that scares him into a check thinking you filled up.

I think he could be holding something like ATs, JTs, KTs, maybe even T9s, or 99, or QJ. Could even be an outside chance he's holding something like 77 or 88 (KQo?) and is just trying to represent the T.

Assuming he's been paying attention I think your 3 bet makes him put you on an overpair. But he isn't laying whatever he's got down (unless he's bluffing with the underpair) so I think your pumping a pot you've got little chance to win. Your straight out may or may not be good. You could even be drawing dead to a FH (barring running K or Q). I call the check raise, and fold the turn unless a club or a J hits, but I'm still playing cautious if they do. Or I 3 bet, sacrifice a young virgin to the gods and pray for the runner runner royal flush /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Jezebel]

Given that UTG is a reasonable player, we need to look at the reasons why he checkraised the flop. His checkraise looks suspiciously like a checkraise that is trying to protect his hand vs. milk the field for extra bets, since his raise will confront the field with 2 bets cold. It would seem he is trying to get heads up with Guy.

Is that flop scary enough for him to try and get it heads up if he had a T? He doesn't need to fear a flush, but an oesd could be on his mind. Since Guy mentioned that the players between them were calling stations, it would seem that he is trying to make it difficult for them to stay. If he had a monster wouldn't he just call hoping everyone stays in and the bet the turn hoping Guy raises trapping everyone for a couple of bets on the expensive street?

I think a T is unlikely. I would have to put him on a 9. Most likely A9s. If that is the case, then his checkraise could be for information and a 3 bet by Guy could take it down. Also, since we are assuming that UTG impression of Guy is weak, it is unlikely for UTG to cap unless he has a T. If the flop does get capped I would tend to put UTG on a T and consider that I have 4 outs and backdoor flush which is enough to see the turn.

On the turn if a blank falls, you will be getting something like 10 or 11 to 1 from the pot. If we still put UTG on a T, then we still have odds to call for our gutshot if he bets into us. If he checks, I would probably bet the turn and call a checkraise, since the pot is so large and you are getting the odds. If we are drawing dead the whole way to a boat, then UTG just outplayed me. I just can't see T9 playing it this way. Very interesting hand as always Guy.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
ATs, I'm not sure what he'd do. Personally, I still haven't made up my mind how to play ATs UTG at certain tables

[/ QUOTE ]

My point of eliminating it would be, that if I do play it UTG, more often than not I play if for a raise. So, KTs, QTs, JTs, would be morelikely.

I'm liking QJs here as this check-raise with outs is good play from a thinking player on this scary board.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[rharless]

OK, I think his possible preflop hands are: limping with Axs (X=T or less) or a pocket pair. Maybe some KQ variety or QJs/JTs. I believe 99 would even be a limping hand here. Raising it from MP after one limper is not mutually exclusive from calling and going for set odds UTG on a loose passive table. It sounds like he has raised a few hands so he might be "balancing."

That said, I don't think his flop play is consistent with 99 at all. I just wanted to say that one who isolates with 99 doesn't necessarily always raise UTG with 99.

He probably puts you on a good hand, since you haven't been involved in much yet. AK/big pair. He also knows that you can fold. He is forcing out the buffer players that would otherwise be trapped. If he had a T or 99, he would not do this. Therefore you are not drawing dead. (Note, he might check-raise a T if he knew you would auto-3bet, thus setting you up for the turn c/r, but this is highly doubtful given your unnotable play at this table thus far.)

I now put him on A9s (3 combos), QJs (3 combos), or 88 (six). Hands which might be best now (except for QJ), but can improve if he is indeed behind.

Therefore you have 10 outs to win, 8 outs to lose, or 13 outs to win respectively.

3-betting sounds good to me because with his range of probable hands, he will probably give you the free card. He also might fold the turn if you 3bet the flop and then bet the turn. He has every reason to believe you for any action you would give.

Of course as soon as you get the turn card, if you check, it confirms (screams) AK.

I know what I would do at the table but I don't know if it is right. I would 3-bet the flop. Then on the turn, I would bet any turned A-9 or small club. I'd probably bet total blanks as well such as 2,3,4,5. If one of those middling cards falls, I often check, because there is little chance of him folding.

[SinCityGuy]

I don't put him on a draw. His checkraise leads me to believe that he's got ATs. Probably. If he does have it, you're going to need to spike a jack, or else hit running clubs, running kings or running queens.

[Redhot_man]

I call on the flop, and wait to see what the turn brings, and if he bets out.

Furthormore, people post complicated hands like this and everyone right away starts trying to get clever and tricky, and don't give a straight answer of how they would play during a normal hand.

[lil']

If he is a good post-flop player, then it seems unlikely he would be holding trips. Therefore I would 3 bet and keep the heat on him.

I like Joe's thought that he may have Q-Js.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is a good post-flop player, then it seems unlikely he would be holding trips. Therefore I would 3 bet and keep the heat on him.

I like Joe's thought that he may have Q-Js.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lil,

I don't think it's unreasonable to think that he could be a good player who checkraised with trips. I know that if I flop trips into a multiway pot with a 2-straight on the board, I try to pound the flop as hard as possible. Trips are very vulnerable to being drawn out on (as I found out numerous times by slowplaying them).

[rharless]

SinCity, if he flopped trips, the best way to pound the flop (imho) is to bet into GoT and then 3-bet.

[el_grande]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I can eliminate 99 as he has raised it after limpers in the past.

I'd agree.

[/ QUOTE ]

...and who check-raises a full house on the flop???

I haven't played 5/10... Maybe that's a deception move at that level. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Louie Landale]

You are thinking far too much. Getting 17:1, folding the flop is out of the question unless you SEE his 99, T9, of JT. Getting 10:1, folding the turn is out of the question unless he's almost SURE to have a T. These aggressive folks can find a fair number of non-set hands to check-raise with. Folding the river is out of the question if you make a pair, at least against this player.

The only real question here is whether or not you should semi-bluff raise the turn to knock him off his two-pair. In this case against this sort of player whose tight aggressive and solid and does NOT perceive you to be "aggressive", this is a prime option. The other option is to figure to bluff the river when he checks his two pair. That's a good option if you would be tempted to FOLD a pair if Ks if you make it and he bets the river.

Spend more time figuring out what sort of player he his. Figuring out how to respond is a lot easier.

- Louie

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Therefore I would 3 bet and keep the heat on him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the QJs, yes but I still don't 3-bet. If his check-raise where heads up, I 3-bet but into a family, with no fear of the actual T being out there.

Call me a wimp here, but I call.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[josie_wales]

wimp

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

[PokerNoob]

I'm going to do this without reading any of the replies. This looks like a great test. The only thing I wish you had added was some table texture information that may help expand the range of hands he would limp with UTG. From the preflop action of this hand, it does look like a limpfest though.

Thinking about his action so far. There is an army of limpers/potential callers that he's going to want to milk with a monster e.g. 99. Thus, the flop checkraise is to defend a speculative hand against overcards, or weak but made hand with perhaps a weak redraw, something like 98, or an underpair. Would he checkraise with a strong draw, something like QJ? That doesn't make sense either because he wants that pot big if a K or 8 hits. It doesn't seem like a potbuilding exercise. He wants to take down this pot right here, right now.

The checkraise also serves to gather information from you, the preflop raiser. Your MP raise after three limpers could mean almost anything on the strength scale. I think he wants to see if you have something to go to war with or something you'll let go of right now. So I read him for weak. If he is in fact strong and aggressively playing something like ATs or QTs or anything with a T, I'm going to lose a lot of money on this hand.

That brings us to your hand. Two non ace overcards, a gutshot and a backdoor flush and straightflush draw. I think your K outs are clean. I can't see him on anything with a K that you don't outkick. Q outs are also probably clean. I think he would have raised with JJ, so the straight outs are good. So, I'd pop him back.

The plan should he call - Bad cards: I would hate to see an ace except the A of clubs. I wouldn't be surprised if he AJs. I would hate to see an 8, 7, or even 6, since underpair is one of my thoughts. I would hate to be drawing dead for my gutshot. Any bad cards fall and he bets, I'm out except an ace and I have odds to call for the gutshot. Any bad cards fall and he checks, I check. If K, Q, J fall, I bet. If he bets on KQJ, I raise J (although smoothcalling and poping him on the river might be nice) and call K or Q. Brick falls and I call or check it through since I need the free card probably worse than he does.

So to summarize: I think he's weak although he could easily be ahead right now, you have many draws to beat him. I reraise the flop and look for my outcards if he calls.

Guess I will now read and find out how wrong I am!

[Lost Wages]

Given that you think QJ is his most probable holding, what is your plan for the turn if you miss? What about the river if you miss again? Call with King high?

Lost Wages

[Lost Wages]

Noob,

I like you analysis a lot. I do have one grip though and I'm not picking on you at all because several posters have suggested it.

What I don't like is the idea of checking behind on the turn in this very large pot if you don't improve. There is a distinct possibility that the opponent is drawing and if you check behind on the turn then of course he will bet the river no matter what and if you have missed your draw then you are going to have to decide wheteher to call with King high. Well, if you are willing to call the river with King high then you might as well bet the turn with King high while you still have outs. True you might get checkraised but this is not the spot to be concerned about saving a bet.

Also, he could very eaisly play a hand like 77 the way he did, putting the preflop raiser on big cards. If you three-bet the flop and follow through with a turn bet he may be convinced to lay down a middle pair.

Lost Wages

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Given that you think QJ is his most probable holding, what is your plan for the turn if you miss? What about the river if you miss again? Call with King high?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he bets again, I call. If he has the hand/sack to bet the river, I fold. I just can't 3-bet w/a gut-shot and un-clean overcards, it doesn't compute to me.

Peace,
Joe Wimpy

[Lost Wages]

If he has the hand/sack to bet the river, I fold.

The problem is, if he is semibluffing a draw then of course he will bet the river even if he misses and you will fold the best hand.

I think that 3-betting the flop will make your hand eaiser to play and minimize the chances to make that kind of mistake. If you 3-bet and he just calls then you are the aggressor and it is he who might make the mistake. If he caps the flop, then you can be sure you will need to improve.

I only like the 3-bet because the pot is large, heads-up and you have position. Otherwise it would be a no brainer call. 3-betting gives you an extra way to win at very little cost relative to the current pot size. Even if you are capped it's no disaster because you have some decent outs.

Cya at True tonight.

Lost Wages

[GuyOnTilt]

I put my opponent on 2-pair or a semi-bluff and 3-bet. My plan is to bet the turn card regardless is he checks to me. I also briefly considered calling the flop raise and raising the turn regardless, but decided against it.

Unfortunately, he capped. I call, and we're headsup to the turn for 10.8 BB's after rake.

Turn comes: 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif[T /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif]

He bets. Now what?

GoT

[PokerNoob]

I don't understand why QJ would play this way. It seems you would want to bet out, have callers, be raised, have yet more callers and really build that pot for when your OESD hits. You only have to realistically fear boats but I don't think you are going to fold out anybody holding pairs at this point on an already paired board with a checkraise. Particularly overpairs which is a reasonable holding for the very person he is trying to get it heads up with. That doesn't make sense to me. If he does have QJ that he's chosen to play this way, one good thing about the reraise is that hes now got to wonder if his K outs are clean!

This checkraise seems really X9ish or an underpair.

If called and checked to when a brick hits the turn, I think I want to bet instead of check, even though I'm most likely behind and even though he will probably checkcall here and the river with two pair. I'll probably get a free showdown for my K high and might even win if he's on something like 87s.

Edit: The cap and turn bet on the rag spade does seem to be a lot more QJ spades or a misplayed monster. Call and hope your J and Q outs are good.

[Jezebel]

I still think your 4 outs to the straight are good. That being the case I would call his turn bet since you are getting the odds. On the river I would call his bet if I hit my K or Q and raise/call reraise if I hit one of my straight outs. Fold the rest.

[unome]

Pot is a decent size now, but you better be fairly certain that this guy is capable of pushing the bluff/semi bluff with a cap after the flop in a weak position heads up.

This is a spot I don't love. I (hesitantly) make the call because of the overcard possibility with the understanding that you have a good chance of losing even if the K or J hits. More of a known history on this player would obviously be a very good thing in this instance...

[Yeknom58]

What might he play in the fashion...I'm thinking the most likely candidates are A9s, QJs, JTs, T9s. I'm just thinking if he had the T he would have bet instead of CR. So I'm smelling A9s or QJs. So I would 3-bet. If he only calls I would bet the turn no matter what. I'm willing to bet he folds his 9 and if he has QJs you're golden, he drawing dead to running Jacks.

Now if he caps you're pretty much in poop city because you might very well be drawing to running Kings or Queens. So mattering on the turn card I might fold to a single bet.

[Yeknom58]

I also think a 3-bet was in order but you stated that if it's capped it's not a disaster as you have outs. What outs are you refering to exactly. If he caps with a reasonable T like K/Q/J/9-T you are in trouble. If he as the K/Q you only have your J and runner runner clubs outs. If he has J/9 you're only drawing to running hands.

[Alobar]

[GuyOnTilt]

Oh yeah! Sorry, I forgot about this thread.

So I 3-bet the flop with K /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif, and he caps. I call and we're HU to the turn for 10.8 BB's.

Turn comes: 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif[T /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif]

He bets, and I fold getting 11.8:1.

GoT

[Inthacup]

Haven't read the replies yet...


I think the pros and cons of 3 betting hinge on what you think your opponent is holding.

Your opponent seems to play reasonably well. What's he going to limp UTG with? My first thought is that he has a mid pair of some sort(44-88) and is checkraising to clear out the opponents between you and him. He probably puts you on overcards and wants to charge you for your draw/see where he's at on the flop.

I guess there's an off chance that he could have a hand like 99 or A10. Given the description of your opponent, either of those holdings is unlikely. I doubt he has K10 or Q10, however, J10s is possible.


So, I'm going to say he's got an underpair. You have 10 outs and a backdoor flush draw. In addition, if an Ace falls, this may be the scare card you need to get him to fold a better hand. I say 3-bet the flop.

Turn: Unless he caps and leads the turn, he'll most likely check to you. You have a decision to make based on your info so far. Do you think he'll fold that underpair if you put enough heat on him? You've put a lot of heat on him by this point. He's got to think that you've got an overpair. If you miss, I say bet the turn to complete your semi-bluff and check behind on the river if you don't improve.

I've made a lot of decisions based on what I think he may have. I guess you could play it safe and just call on the flop, but if he has what I think he has, he's taken control of the flop and forced you to improve to win.


Now, to read 34 other replies...




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