flop a set, fold a set

[mike l.]

here's a little hand i played earlier tonight. 8-16 good full live game. i have 99 in the sb. some fool limps, another fool calls, good tightish older player in cutoff raises, idiot cold calls on button, i call, bb calls, others call.

we see this flop: AdKh9d. i bet, folded to solid who raises, button calls, i 3 bet, both call.

the turn is Qd. i check, solid bets, button calls all in, i checkraise, solid 3 bets, i fold.

comments?

[latz]

Big pot mike- I would have to know this guy very well to make this lay down. Actually I'm not sure I know any player well enough to fold this. Small chance he has AK, small chance he has 10Jd (straight flush draw on flop) and you are drawing very live. Even in the likely event he has big set, you still have some pot equity- 2-3% chance of hitting quads and collecting 20+ big bets on riv.

[SinCityGuy]

I don't know. For the same price, you could have called the turn and seen a showdown at the river. Your chances aren't good, but they're zero with the turn fold. He could have A-Kd.

As I always point out, I'm just an average player, so I respect your opinion and that of most of the other posters here.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
Even in the likely event he has big set, you still have some pot equity- 2-3% chance of hitting quads and collecting 20+ big bets on riv.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possible, but maybe not very likely? AA or KK would probably have pounded the flop with a 2-flush on the board. It's possible that he might have QQ and spiked his set on the turn.

[Inthacup]

If you're going to make goofy folds like this, why not just call down instead of check-raise the turn?


Cup

[Tommy Angelo]

"If you're going to make goofy folds like this, why not just call down instead of check-raise the turn?"

Because the way mike played it, he wins one bet on the turn when the guy has a hand he would not call one bet with, and he wins three bets turn-and-river combined when the opponent has AQ, AJ, AT, instead of only two by betting out both streets, and mike loses only two bets when he's beat. Good play IMO.

Tommy

[SA125]

I respect the opinion of the old hands of the game, but still see the problem about what you're getting for the 2 bets on the turn. One is a chance to win it there, more bets on the river, or concede the 2 bets. The other is to spend the same 2 bets, win even bets and make sure you're not mucking the winner.

Is it a matter of needing those extra bets to be a winner over the long term? Because I would guess there's a pretty good balance to it with losing bets in hands conceded.

[Inthacup]

mike loses only two bets when he's beat


Hmmmmm, Tommy's first reply to my posts is to tell me I'm flat wrong? We're off to a good start!


I guess I'm just not convinced that he's behind a set. If this player is "tightish" but he's 3-betting on the turn, with a flush and straight possible, I don't know how reliable Mike's read is.

If this is the kind of player that will raise a set on this board, I don't think it's unreasonable that he'd 3-bet AK here as well. Esp. if he has the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif




Cup

[Tommy Angelo]

"Hmmmmm, Tommy's first reply to my posts is to tell me I'm flat wrong? We're off to a good start!"

Hi cup!

As I recall, your entire post was one question, and I answered it. How can a question be "flat wrong?"

(Or am I wrong to ask? :-) )

"I guess I'm just not convinced that he's behind a set."

Fair enough. I'm convinced that the likelihood of the opponent having a set -- factoring in the money mike was going to lose if he did, also factoring in the money mike would make if he didn't -- was such that folding was correct. The reason I'm convinced is because mike was there at the time and he folded. I'm not saying the play was correct simply because mike made it. I'm saying that the play is so spectacularly unusual that the fact that mike made it means that it is spectacularly unlikely that mike was wrong.


Tommy

[SoBeDude]

Lets see,

Solid raised preflop. Solid raised the flop. Solid 3bet the turn after getting check-raised by an opponent I'd guess he respects.

Mike has bottom set. The straight and the flush are out. Any set solid might have beats mike's. There is no reasonable hand that solid has that mike beats.

But...

If solid has the str8 or the flush, then mike has 10 outs to improve on the river. Whats wrong with check-call the turn to see the river for one bet and have a decent chance (with correct odds) to draw to the winner?

-Scott

[bad beetz]

I think the play of this hand is truly awesome. However you can only do it if you know he'll never three-bet you with big two-pair on that board, this is probably the case.

[andyfox]

I don't think I'm good enough to make this lay down. I just couldn't convince myself I was behind and drawing virtually dead. If he's 3-betting here with the flush possible, it's possible he has a flush (Jd-Td; Kd-Jd). He stopped betting on the flop. Why? To trap you? With what? Pocket Aces or Kings? Now a 3rd diamond comes and he still 3 bets. I'd have to at least consider that he might have Jd-Td or Kd-Jd (you said tightish, not tight) or even A-K with the Kd.

Then again there's the 3rd play all in who might have made a flush or straight and if so, and if solid does indeed have A-K, you're drawing pretty thin.

[shemp]

Does a cut-off raise still mean, in part, I want the button? Couldn't you have a flush, how can he put you on a hand?

I'd be careful about congratulating myself for making great turn folds with sets.

[J.A.Sucker]

I've never folded a set in limit holdem, unless the river was brutal and multiway action indicates a 100% chance that I'm beaten, and I don't think I ever will. I don't think you should either.

[cero_z]

Hi mike,
Sorry, I haven't read all the replies (your posts are popular). I don't think you should've folded, for 2 reasons:
1) A reasonable hand for this solid player is AK with the Kd.
2) You must consider your own image, which I'm guessing is a tricky, loose one. When you lead on the flop, he doesn't necessarily put you on a hand as big as a set, right? It can be an Ace with a diamond, or bottom 2 or something, no? You were there, so presumably you know these answers, and still you folded. But still, maybe that's food for thought.

[ML4L]

Hey mike l.

For the same price as check-raising and folding to a three bet, you could just call and then call the river. That way you would get to see a showdown.

Given your read on the player and the turn check-raise, I think the fold is OK. Are you SURE he doesn't have AK...?

ML4L

[sweetzer]

The hands that could beat you are AA, KK, QQ, JT. With AA or KK, he likely would have capped the flop. With QQ or JT he would not have raised on the flop. A possible hand is KJd or KTd with an aggressive raise on the turn planning to have you check the river. Between the possibilities of AK, KJd, or KTd, I would have trouble folding the set in that large of a pot. Of course it's easier to see the possible hands on Monday morning, and you had your instincts at the time.

[DonWaade]

For that price what was one more bet? Could you have put "solid" on big slick? Nice post though. . . compelling hand

[nykenny]

imo, mike should go back to 40-80... he is over thinking ... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

kenny

[Eric P]

1 bet to fill up on the river, i know it might not be good if his set is better but this pot is huge cost you 32 more to finish this hand. If he has flush then you have to call, i'm guessing he has a pat hand and your boat is a live draw, he must put you on a straight or a flush when you check/raise, or a set and he 3-bets, so he almost certainly beats a set, which means your draw to fill up is live. I don't understand how you folded for 1 more bet as a 3-1 dog

[Eric P]

never folding a set is rediculous, especially when the river comes, 4 diamonds

[Eric P]

explain how you folded this set on the turn? His actions lead to him having the nut flush almost certainly and your pot odds are much more than enough to make this final call, folding here was a total disaster i think. please explain?

[J.A.Sucker]

You obviously didn't read my post correctly. I'll fold in the (rare) situations where I know I'm beaten. The two main times this is true are when there's a four card straight and a four-card flush, and it's a multiway pot on the river. I've also folded the under full house when it's obvious that I'm beaten.

[Eric P]

what about 2% says it's likely?

I still don't understand how you can fold this mike, 2 more bets to win a whole lot, or just 1 more to try and fill up, if you don't think your draw is live i still think you need to try and hit it, just don't raise if you D? this pot to big to turn your bback on in this marginal situation

[Depraved]

I'd only make this raise/fold play if I knew the player had me beat with a higher set for sure. I mean close to 100% sure.

[mike l.]

i will get to the results later. first some comments on my thinking.

when i went for the checkraise on the turn i felt my hand might still be best, and that if it wasnt i would be reraised on the turn. i figured if cutoff had the nut flush draw (and i assumed that KdJd was the only flush draw he could possibly have, and even then not likely) he would cap the flop w/ 2 players in and decent position. so i figured i wanted to charge him if he had two big pair (AK, AQ, KQ), but get away from my hand if i was drawing one from dead against AA, KK, or the less likely QQ (since he couldnt have Qd). i figured that with the flush out there and the all in player going all in he could not 3 bet the turn w/ less than a set and doesnt seem like the type tricky/smart/daring enough to make the turn reraise w/ AxKd. so when he reraised the turn i figured i was dead and dropped out. this was not a move i was planning on making when i went for the turn checkraise, but the non-acting way in which he quite confidently reraised this protected pot on turn led me to make what i was feeling was a terrific laydown.

so was it?

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
what about 2% says it's likely?

[/ QUOTE ]

My post was poorly worded. I meant it's unlikely that his opponent has a set.

[AJo Go All In]

sounds like a case of BLS to me. big laydown syndrome. we've all had it before.

[spamuell]

the non-acting way in which he quite confidently reraised this protected pot ...

Wasn't there something on here a couple of days ago about "the most reliable tell in middle limit hold'em"? That if someone confidently reraises, they're either very strong or very weak. It's almost impossible he's very weak here.

But if he had a set, he might put in a reraise but in a less confident manner, no? Because he's slightly worried that he doesn't have the flush, and he doesn't have a diamond. Wouldn't bother with the act though.

If he had the KJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif flush, he might raise more confidently, knowing that at this point he has the nuts and that that raise cannot possibly be wrong, even against a tough player.

Maybe I misunderstood that post - I don't play middle limit hold'em, although I intend to some day (I'm still young).

Anyway, if you're acting on a one-off read of an individual opponent at a specific time, no one here can tell you whether this was a "terrific laydown". Although, because of the huge pot, I suspect it wasn't.

[shemp]

So he can have AA(3 ways) and KK (3 ways) or KdJd (1 way) -- horrible fold. Save a fold here for the river if you don't improve.

[mike l.]

"So he can have AA(3 ways) and KK (3 ways) or KdJd (1 way) -- horrible fold."

youre being simplistic. my read was KdJd was less likely than AA or KK by quite a bit. so it looks like 1 in 7, but it's actually weighted more towards AA or KK. at least that was my read. and is it really fair for me to completely discount AxKd (i think it is, but it's a big pot...).

but there's more: what could all in player have? maybe AA as well as KdJd are less likely because those are likely sorts of cards for all in player to have in her hand?

[shemp]

What can I say, I'm an idiot? I can't even figure out why a confident turn 3-bet makes a set more likely than a flush.

[SoBeDude]

I don't know many players who will confidently 3bet a turn check-raise with a set, when both a Flush and a Straight are out on the board.

If he's really reraising you with confidence, he has the flush, or maybe the straight with a redraw to the nut flush?

I think in many situations here, you're drawing live to 10 outs to fill up.

I get the feeling that when you get to posting the results that you made a good read. I just don't think its a good laydown in general.

And the 2 bets you burned on the turn could have got you to a showdown with a big hand. And when both the straight and flush is out there, why 3bet when you may be behind? give youself a cheap chance to improve on the river.

And I remember in HPFAP, they mention if you never fold a set you're not making much of a mistake. So, it seems to me, when you have a set, spend the same number of bets its going to take to get to the showdown but fold (giving you 0% chance of winning the hand), that has to be a bigger mistake in terms of EV than just calling down.

-Scott

[SA125]

You get credit for this one. You got more thumbs down than up. This was a good question that brought out good answers.

[Depraved]

I'd confidently reraise you with AxK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I might even do it with AxJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. If your opponent is any good at all, he's completely capable of this, at least on occasion.

If he's solid and sharp enough to reraise you with a set when you've represented a flush, then he's definitely capable of raising with worse hands that can improve.

Conversely, if he's so predictable that he would only reraise with the nuts, you had 10 outs and should have called.

[shemp]

You've completely misunderstood the question. If the only hands the guy can have are AA and KK, is a fold correct? Retracing how we know what we know is a dead end. Asking why AA or KK do not think they are behind given that this is (see above) how mike l. would play a flush draw will get you nowhere.

I point this out so you're prepared for when the results go something like: He had the flush, but the board didn't pair on the river so I would have lost, and I still think the fold was correct because the chances that he had what he had were less than .0001%, and the BB had KQ, so my draw wasn't very live anyway.

[mike l.]

i will tell you this much about the results:

the case 9 came on the river.

[shemp]

bummer... but you made a great fold... right? (If I'm wrong again, I love my chances next time around.)

[mike l.]

"bummer... but you made a great fold... right?"

wrong! i brainfarted. i thought i was making a really great laydown. fact is he had that KdJd. all in player had AQo. i didnt take into account what she could have. if i did i wouldve been able to realise that it's a bit less likely he has a set. plus youre right: there's was an inconsistency in my thinking in the hand. how could he be too timid to 3 bet worse hands on the turn, but not so timid that he would auto-3 bet my c/r on the turn holding just a set on that coordinated board? it makes no sense.

i put the player on a certain small range of hands on the flop and i failed to think things through carefully on the turn.

ah well... other than this nasty little error i played so tight and so good last night im still in shock.

[shemp]

Go back to Tommy's post and take heed. You did the absolute right thing at that instant in time on that table based innumerable ineffables. So something else went down. It's gambling. 1) Don't look back. 2) Nobody Feels Any Pain.

(Just don't do that again.)

[mikelow]

So you folded for one bet when the board could pair the river? If "solid" has AK, you may not want the board to pair.

So I think it's set over set that you were worried about. I would have seen the river, but I might not chack-raise the turn.

[mikelow]

Good thing that you're tightening up. How's the proposition going?

On this hand, your fold for a measly bet was pretty silly.
In 8-16, no less! I don't play that small, but I don't lay down very much unless it's absolutely certain that I'm beat.

[andyfox]

Another example of a cigar sometimes being just a cigar. He stopped betting on the flop when you 3-bet because he wasn't there yet. He didn't stop betting on the turn when you check-raised because the turn card helped him.

Glad to hear you're happy with your play and that, more importantly, apparently, you're happy with yourself.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
"bummer... but you made a great fold... right?"

wrong! i brainfarted. i thought i was making a really great laydown. fact is he had that KdJd. all in player had AQo. i didnt take into account what she could have. if i did i wouldve been able to realise that it's a bit less likely he has a set. plus youre right: there's was an inconsistency in my thinking in the hand. how could he be too timid to 3 bet worse hands on the turn, but not so timid that he would auto-3 bet my c/r on the turn holding just a set on that coordinated board? it makes no sense.

i put the player on a certain small range of hands on the flop and i failed to think things through carefully on the turn.

ah well... other than this nasty little error i played so tight and so good last night im still in shock.



[/ QUOTE ]
how many mike l.'s are on 2+2? i used to enojoy the posts about playing trash hands... i am so confused

Kenny

[SA125]

A river 9. Ouch. 4 of a kind. Who woulda thought? Funny how on those rare occasions you actually consider the possibility of it against you, you always here "Come on. You're crazy. When does that happen?"