Poll: Simple Short Stack Satellite Problem

[Rick Nebiolo]

Gee, another forum I didn't even know existed /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

After just coming off a beat I have only T100 left in a one table no limit holdem satellite. There are T3000 chips in play and the blinds have just gone up to T50 and T100.

The UTG player with the largest stack folds. An average UTG+1 with another large stack raises enough to cover all the remaining players. I have QT offsuit with the aforementioned T100. The button is short stacked (about T300) and relatively tight. The small blind has T75 left and has already indicated he will be going all in for three additional chips before the hand starts (I believe him). The big blind has about T150 left after his post.



I'll post what I did and why below.

~ Rick

[MrFroggyX]

What is the payout? Is it only the winner that gets the satellite ticket?

And is your position UTG+2?

[Rick Nebiolo]

I called and I don't think it was a close decision.

The small blind will call with any two cards (since he has only three T25 chips left). The big blind holds random cards and I exactly cover his blind. I don't like the raise on my right (in fact, I'd rather have this person fold), but the fact this player is in the pot gives me at least 3 to 1 on my money. I get 4 to 1 if the button calls or raises.

Queen-ten offsuit isn't a great hand but it doesn't play too badly all in against one probably stronger hand and two random hands. I have only two chances at a better hand before I have to take the blind all in. In my next two hands I won't get the automatic call in the small blind.

Hero, sweating me from a safe distance, thought I should have ditched the hand. This led to a heated arguement, but we both agreed the forum would be the place to settle it.

We await the forum's vote and comments. A month's worth of who must pay for cocktails depends on your vote /images/graemlins/grin.gif

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

It was a $70 satellite for six $100 Commerce Tournament lammers (is that the right term) and $30 extra. You can make deals but usually this occurs head up. I was UTG+2, or in the cutoff since we were now six handed.

Given you asked, I might edit my post and add this.

~ Rick

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In Antwort auf:</font><hr />
Hero, sweating me from a safe distance, thought I should have ditched the hand. This led to a heated arguement, but we both agreed the forum would be the place to settle it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Rick, I agree with Hero on this one (I couldn't vote in the poll, however; some kind of cookie problem).

In a recent essay on his web site (http://www.playwinningpoker.com/articles/04/), Steve Badger addresses a problem almost identical to the one you've posed here.

To paraphrase him, the fact that the blinds are likely (or certain, in the case of the SB) to call is a reason you should fold, not a reason you should call. True, you are likely getting 3-to-1 on your T100. But your hand will have to beat three others to win the pot! Maybe on the next hand you'll get a situation where the blinds are less likely to call, so you'd be getting 2.5-to-1 on your T100, but to win it you'll only have to beat one player.

Did you win the hand and go on to win the satellite?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Close decision, but I think I'd call. The BB is likely to call meaning that there's a chance 2 players go out on this hand. However, since you can't raise you have no way of winning a hand uncontested. This is probably your best opportunity to get enough chips to even have a chance at winning.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Here's what Badeger says:

The general situation you want is to go all-in after one single opponent raises in front of you.

I agree, but the problem is simple. There's no guarantee this is going to happen. In fact, in the situation Rick poses, each succeeding hand *decreases* the chance that that will happen. He has one person to act ahead of him in the next hand, and he acts first the hand after that, and on the third hand, he's forced to play what he gets.

Badger's advice makes sense if you've got 4 or 5 hands before your BB *and* there's an aggressive big stack one or two seats to your right who's preying on the table's fears.

Badger's point is well-taken, but this specific situation is an exception.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Rick,

My first thought was that you should fold and push on one of the next two hands. The SB may well be going out here, which is one less potentially better hand to dodge.

Then I thought what I wrote in my original post: if the SB goes out, that puts you UTG on the next hand because the button will skip over to the BB. I would push in UTG rather than wait to be forced in on the blind, because some players will fold a marginal hand rather than having to see all five cards for a shot at only 2.5xBB.

Then I thought: wait a minute, that would mean the BB didn't pay a SB, and that's not the way they handle it. If the SB busts out, the button stays where it is, so you're still UTG+1. That gives you two hands to decide whether to push in, and I think one of the two might give you a better shot than QT in a community pot.

Cris

[The Prince]

Rick,

I agree with your play. The key here is:

- you gain nothing by moving up the scale
- you can't fold and make a blind muck a hand if you go all-in in the next hands.

Against 3 opponents, 2 of which have random hand and over all the possible hands the raiser could have, your QT has a positive equity.

Should you win this pot, you will be able to pressure the blinds.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I think your reasoning is fine. Take your chance to quadruple up now. I did vote for it being close tho, as the raiser may have you dominated.

al

[Rick Nebiolo]

Thanks for the link to the Badger article. I got four way action and lost the hand as the raiser has AA. Flopped a ten but couldn't improve.

~ Rick

PS I'll try to get back tonight when Hero stops by.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Against 3 opponents, 2 of which have random hand and over all the possible hands the raiser could have, your QT has a positive equity.

Should you win this pot, you will be able to pressure the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

After reading Badger's article and some other responses, I'm wondering if I would have gotten MORE positive equity by waiting.

Regards,

Rick

[The Prince]

Rick,

hard to say, the key for me is that you can just limp in if your fold this hand.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Cris,

Thanks for the response. I wish I was one of those guys with an office job so I could get back during the day. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

My problem was that I thought it was a call and it wasn't close. We've just started reading the thread. I'm not sure whether calling or folding is correct, but now I believe it is at least close. I have to buy Hero drinks for a month /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

~ Rick

[M.B.E.]

Kurn,

You make some good points. However, the chip leader (who is UTG on this hand) will be in the big blind next hand. That means that the other players will be less likely than usual to play. Also if someone does raise (especially the player with T300 described by Rick as tight), the big blind will be more likely to fold. Because of these factors, I tend to think that calling here with QT is a worse play than simply folding and playing the next hand regardless of cards.

Also QT just isn't that good a hand. In the situation Rick posed I would call with K8o even though I fold the QTo. The K8o is a bit less likely to be dominated by the raiser and also does better against the random hands.

It is an interesting problem, however, and if you play these b&amp;m single-table satellites (which I intend to do at the WSOP this year), it's important to be able to make the correct decision in the situation Rick posed. To be honest I am not all that confident that what I've written above is correct.

This type of situation doesn't come up too often in the SNGs I play on PokerStars, because there the blinds rise slowly enough that by the time your stack gets down to the size of the big blind, it's usually three-handed, not six-handed.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's what Badeger says:

The general situation you want is to go all-in after one single opponent raises in front of you.

I agree, but the problem is simple. There's no guarantee this is going to happen. In fact, in the situation Rick poses, each succeeding hand *decreases* the chance that that will happen. He has one person to act ahead of him in the next hand, and he acts first the hand after that, and on the third hand, he's forced to play what he gets.

Badger's advice makes sense if you've got 4 or 5 hands before your BB *and* there's an aggressive big stack one or two seats to your right who's preying on the table's fears.

Badger's point is well-taken, but this specific situation is an exception.

[/ QUOTE ]

Best for me if I fold is if the small blind doubles up, next best is the big blind doubles up. In either case I can get head up next hand against a possible big raise. Now I may get the blind equity without having to face the hand since they will often fold to a big raise. That is essentially the position described in the Badger article linked to in this thread (by M.B.E.). With a super small stack you try to end up with a random hand against a raiser and blinds that fold.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Kurn,

You make some good points. However, the chip leader (who is UTG on this hand) will be in the big blind next hand. That means that the other players will be less likely than usual to play. Also if someone does raise (especially the player with T300 described by Rick as tight), the big blind will be more likely to fold. Because of these factors, I tend to think that calling here with QT is a worse play than simply folding and playing the next hand regardless of cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right now I think this is close to the correct analysis.

[ QUOTE ]
Also QT just isn't that good a hand. In the situation Rick posed I would call with K8o even though I fold the QTo. The K8o is a bit less likely to be dominated by the raiser and also does better against the random hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like QT better because you are likely to face two other random hands. First in with a raise I like K8 offsuit. I don't like calling a raise with K8 offuiut, even when short stacked.

~ Rick