Frustration!

[TheGrifter]

I have been playing 10+1 SnG's exclusively for the past few weeks and lately I've gone on a HORRIBLE streak that has me re-evaluating every decision I've made.

Specifically, over my last 17 SnG's I'm 1-16...that's not wins, that's money finishes. I took 1st once and finished out of the money 16 times. I've also documented whether or not I had the best hand when the money went in and in 14 of the 16 losses I did.

Even though technically these losses are results of bad beats, the number is too great to simply right off as variance, and I think I have some idea as to what I may be doing wrong, if those of you who could never experience a downturn like this would be kind enough to clarify matters for me that would be great.

The SnG I just busted out of I got my money in as a 2:1 favorite and got outdrawn, but I wondered if I made the correct decision in pushing at all. After all, if I push in three times as a 2:1 favorite (By stacks that have me covered) I'm going to be even money to bust out. (I'll post the hand below for specifics). This has gotten me to thinking that I should ONLY push all in preflop with AA and KK until say, the blinds are at least 1/10th of my stack and half the table has been eliminated, even if I am fully aware that I am almost certainly a big fav. preflop. Thoughts on that?

Specifcally the hand that broke the camels back and is causing me to rethink risks all together is the following (I'll recreate from memory cause comp. froze while typing this the first time)

Blinds 10/20 (approximately 35 hands in) 8 Left of 10
I'm dealt A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif in the BB with T935 (I have yet to see a flop).

Folded to MP who bets T200 (Little history: he has been raising 200-300 since we started with blinds at 5-10, when he has been called he has shown weak aces every time. Everything from A3 to A9 offsuit) and then folded around to me.

I am confident that he has a weak ace and reraise all-in. The MP thinks for a while and then calls. He has A7 of diamonds and picks up a 7 on the flop to bust me out.

Obviously, I was in no trouble and could of passed this hand up and waited for another opportunity, but I had been salivating to take advantage of this guy since I saw his first couple of big bets and was almost certain I was a 2:1 favorite. As I said before though, I'm not sure a 90% chance of being a 2:1 favorite is good enough early in a very low buy in single table tournament, thoughts?

What has been bothering me even more is that when I do make it to the final three I finish first way more than my fair share of the time, lately I just have NOT been making it that far. My distribution of 1/2/3 when I do finish in the money has been about 70/15/15. This causes me to think that I might be better off just putting the comp. on check/fold for the first 30 minutes and coming back and playing.

An interesting sidenote, since I have committed myself to playing only SnG's I have taken a break and played 4 higher level SnG's (couple of 20's a 30 and a 100) and have won them all. Obviously this means NOTHING, but it is frustrating to see those results and then lose 16 of 17 when I believe I should be winning.

I'm not saying that the solution to not winning at the 10 dollar level is to move up, but what can I do to improve my win %? Before this streak began I was in the money 40% of the time and now it is only 29%. I am still showing a small profit but it is nowhere near what I am expecting.

Please, tell me how I can take advantage of players mistakes without busting myself out??

If you made it through this rambling, partially incoherent post, thank you for any advice/help you can provide,

Grifter

[LetsRock]

I've been having the same troubles with SnGs of late, so my advice may not be worth squat.

IMO it looks like you're a little too eager to "take that guy out" with your AKo hand. Sure you have a great hand, but 1) you can't assume he has his typical weak ace or worse and 2) your hand isn't made yet. I'd probably either call or raise him back his 200 to see his reaction. His call would haelp to define his hand. With no A or K on flop you have to be worried that he does have a weak Ace that paired (if he bets) and can get away from the hand. I don't know if you had any other info about him, but I'm thinking you should have expected his call with A7o. I think seeing the flop will help you to make better decisions in this hand.

You played the hand as if you were afraid to play it post-flop, which, as I understand it, is the sign of a weak player. I'm not saying you are (cuz I don't know about your game), but this may be something you can look at. You didn't give yourself the chance to outplay him after the flop. Stronger players will give themselves that chance. All-in and your stuck with whatever the poker gods choose to grace you with. It's one thing if you're against the wall, but you're not in that position here.

[TheGrifter]

Your comments are along the same vein of what I've been thinking. You're right that I haven't been giving myself a chance to outplay my opponents after the flop on most occasions. And given the level that I'm playing I think I may be turning the game into more of a crapshoot than it needs to be.

Given the situation in the hand I described I was reasonably sure that I was way ahead. But as you said there is no way I can be certain as I make no effort to further define my opponents hand. If I had reraised to say, 400, and he called then I could be even more certain he was on a Ace/rag (as he had just called raises with A3 etc. before) and in this case I could of easily gotten away on the rag flop (which happened to be all spades). Of course, the other option is just calling so as not to become pot committed and playing from there. I think I prefer this option given that I was out of position.

I do feel that I have skills postflop vs. the average 10+1 player and perhaps a big part of my problem is that I'm only using one of the weapons in my arsenal.

I knew this opponent would call any raise with a weak ace and the value of seeing a flop with a dominating hand may be better than simply going all in with a dominating hand. After the flop I will either be a big underdog or a HUGE favorite and can play accordingly (unless we both miss in which case an all in semi-bluff will get much more respect).

Thanks for the comments, I'll work on seeing more flops wiht my big hands instead of simply relying on the odds preflop.

Just as an aside, I am playing a 10+1 now, got AK in the BB. With two limpers and raised to 4x BB, one called, bet the pot on a 9 8 8 flop and picked it up. Nothing spectacular but just funny considering it happened just now.

[TheGrifter]

I just want to thank both you and William for your advice. When I used to only occasionally play low buy in SnG's I was dominating them and lately I haven't been able to bank a cent.

Today, after reading the advice on this forum and drastically tightening up my game early and just generally being less tricky I have finished in the money in three in a row.

It may not seem like much and I have certainly had money streaks much longer but after not cashing in 16 of 17 it certainly feels good.

Thanks for your help guys.