Some thoughts about survival, drawing hands and small pairs

[William]

The following thoughts apply to SNSs and tourneys at sites that give you a consistent number of chips to start with and keep the lenght of the levels , well, at a reasonable level /images/graemlins/grin.gif(such as stars).

The first consideration is if you see yourself as a good player(it's not a coincidence all good books about tournament play are written for good players). If you don't, you obviously don't want to find yourself shortstacked at the higher levels and should take some chances to build a large stack as early as possible. This will of course result in you busting early many times, but if you ever get better, you'll be glad that things happen that way.

This leads me naturally to the often debated topic of survival vs. pot odds, wich I kind of allready answered. If you are a good player, your goal is to get there were you get paid and try to finish as high as possible. Even if you make it to the money with a short stack, it normally only takes one double-up to allow you to use your skills again and often one of the big stacks will call with a lesser hand in an attempt to bust you out, so it definetely is important to be selective about the hand you are moving in with.

Survival is in my opinion(I will never say this enough) the absolute first concern in your game. Every time you get involved in a pot, you want to have the best hand and have other players chasing you. Sometimes you will lose, but in the long term, it is from this principle you will make your money.
Thinking in terms of pot odds and EV(when you have the time to wait for something better) to convince yourself to chase that flush, straight, boat or wathever, is a one way road to so few results that it won't be worthwhile playing tourneys.
In NL tourneys, the draw is death.

When you start seeing flops with any 2 cards because you think the odds are out there you will be flopping drawing hands(you could flop quads, but then you are just lucky) and it takes a lot of will to get out from those hands. Every time you decide to get involved with a hand, you should be asking yourself what is this hand worth in a random flop. Small pairs that see a flop cheap in the early levels are hit or fold situations but you must be able to get something out af your other hands, that's why it is rarely correct to limp, you want to isolate a player or two and know that because you raised pre-flop an showed strenght they will be scared of any flop they don't hit. This doesn't mean that you should bust on every flop you don't hit yourself, you have to realize that other players don't call your raises with nothing, but you must be able to recognize the situations where you can take advantage of the respect your raise has generated.
Table image is extremely important. If you have been limping a lot, folding post-flop or to raises, other players won't have any respect for you and you will be forced to show the best hand to claim the pot. A situation you definitely want to avoid.

Another subject I want to talk about is small/medium pairs. I used to bust out a lot with that kind of cards, all the way up to JJ, and then decided to start folding them a lot more. What I do is see the flop cheap(and that means folding them in early position) in the early levels (mostly only the first 2 in SNGs) and if I don't hit I will fold them to any bet. Then I just forget about them until we are very late in the tournament(or shorthanded for the first time in SNGs). The exeptions are JJ and TT wich have to be played with extreme caution, depending on position/stack size, but you must learn to get away from those hands when the red lamps start blinking. When the game gets shorthanded again I start playing those pairs again, but it is often an all-in/fold situation. I don't really want to see the flop with a small/medium pair, but am willing to take my chances if somebody else is willing to risk a lot of chips.
This way of handling pairs has really improved my results. I know that every now and then, I see a flop and I wish I had kept my cards, but in the long term, it has kept me alive and allowed me to stay in the tournament and reach the last levels many, many times.

Finally, due to the last day's incident, where I probably was out of line in the way I said things(had to be said though) you perhaps don't want me posting here any longer. It is not my wish to divide this forum into 2 groups, I feel I have many friends here, and as I have now expressed my opinion, I won't be pointing fingers any longer. It's up to the single reader to draw his own conclusions and I want to apologize to all of you for causing this awkward situation.
I will see for a couple of days how things are and if I get the feeling that you rather have me not posting here any more, I will accept that.

Anyway, I hope that what I wrote will help you all in your game.

Take care,
William

[Pitcher]

Hi William,

I wanted to reply to this because I believe you are making a good point that I sometimes forget (see other post). I do many of the things you suggest with good result. The one thing I love in your post is the play of PP's early and late. Early, just call and pray for trips. If raised pre-flop (a mini raise that doesn't drive anyone out MIGHT be ok to call) drop, if it doesn't flop trips, drop it. This is just great advice in my opinion.

You have also given me food for thought about another issue and that is one of leading. I pretty much always open with a raise (except the situation listed above) but frequently do not raise enough. If you think you have the best hand, it seems a good idea to avoid min-raises and go for 3-4x BB. If you don't value the hand that way, get away from it. For some reason, I have trouble always following through with this. See my other post about the KQ for an example of what not to do!

Thanks for the advice. Now I need to slow down and put this advice to use.

Pitcher

[CrisBrown]

William,

Go debate this with Fossilman, et. al. Been there, done that, and the consensus is against you. Now it may be that every other player on this forum sucks and you're the only one among us with a brain. Or it may be that you're not as brilliant as you'd like to think, and that survival is not the be-all-and-end-all of tournament poker.

Talk about a post which exhibits arrogance and gives bad advice, yours is it in this thread, as you declaim with mighty and godlike authority as the Wannabe Dean Of the One Table Tourney Forum:

[ QUOTE ]
Survival is in my opinion(I will never say this enough) the absolute first concern in your game. ... In NL tourneys, the draw is death!

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's all repeat it together, can I have an Amen!!!

I've watched a lot of top tournament poker -- including players like T.J. Cloutier -- and they will play drawing hands. They will call trash cards if the pot is giving them the right odds (it's called punishing a min-raiser). Phil Hellmuth writes that in staking a tournament player, he would rather stake a maniac than a rock, because the maniac has a better chance of making a big payday, and Fossilman has said the same thing.

But hey ... what do Phil Hellmuth and Fossilman know? You probably make more in a half-hour than they've ever seen in their entire lives, right???

You picked this fight, and entirely for your own ego reasons, because you are convinced that you know the ONE AND ONLY CORRECT WAY TO PLAY POKER ... it's right there in your sig line.

Well, guess what?

I have zero respect for you, your opinions, your supposed experience, your supposed earnings, or your attitude, and I will not hesitate to say THAT again and again and again ...

... can I get an Amen!

Cris

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Good post William, and in the spirit of reconcilliation, I'll say it's not my job to be the "attitude sherrif" here, so maybe I was a bit out of line as well.

One of my goals is indeed to stay out of trouble early, and in most cases, drawing hands bleed away chips. However, what about a hand like T9s (for example) on the button or CO, after multiple limpers. Or the same hand completing in the SB after one limper? Do you advise completely avoiding suited connectors below KQ early in a SNG?

[William]

It's not whether you win or lose ... it's whether you win

But you don't, right? You must be a very confused lady and I won't get into a public written fight with you. I have said my meaning about your posts, and it is only my opinion, but somehow I think most people here understand.

You can write what you want, point out all my mistakes ( there are probably many) but I won't bother answering you.
I am here because I enjoy it, because it relaxes me while playing, not to read about one crazy idea after the other from an obvious average player.
So far, I have received quite a few PM supporting my actions, but as I said before, if I feel that most posters (and that doesn't include you) will rather see me stay away, I will settle with reading and not posting anymore. I've always wanted to learn to play limit poker anyway, so this is perhaps the occasion.

Oh yes, one last thing; the na-na-na, your posts are also bad, na-na-na stuff is very cute. My kids used that strategy as well. I mean when they were 5/6 years old /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Good day to you,
William

[William]

Hi Kurn,
Sorry about the reconciliation, it seems it won't occur(not that I care) but I will avoid getting into a writen war in this forum, so you and the other posters won't be further bothered by that kind of posts(not by me anyway).

Do you advise completely avoiding suited connectors below KQ early in a SNG?


I have very bad experiences with suited connectors(or low cards by that matter), even in the SB. It often leads to situations that are very expensive and I rather miss the boat once in a while than fall into the river way to often. So in other words, besides the "it depends" situation, you won't be seeing me playing anything under KD, wich is also a way of consolidating my table image for when I will be stealing (that I occasionally do /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

Take care,
William

[Stagemusic]

Hi guys. Well, I've been catching up on my reading and this turn of events has certainly been interesting. William, my bankroll is currently at less than $500. I have pulled quite a bit of it away from the sites for the holidays and some special things for my family over the past couple of months. I feel that they deserve it for the hours I spend in front of a monitor. Isn't that what it supposed to be for? Does the fact that my bankroll isn't in 5 or 6 figures make me a bad (or overvalued) player? Just curious.

I sometimes find Cris a little too much but her advice is generally good as a starting point for further study and opinions. I cannot say whether or not she is a winning player as her performance at the 2+2 tables has been less than stellar but then I have only played in a few of them and mine sucked too. /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

There are a number of posters on this forum whose advice I will listen to and see if it fits into my style, which is what you are really talking about isn't it?

I prefer to not rely on draws to make my hands. I am much more willing to fold a 4 flush or straight draw on the turn than I am willing to fold top two pair or a set even against a scary board. But that's just me. This doesn't mean I won't go for them in some situations but I tend to pick and choose them carefully.

I think you both need to step back and go to neutral corners. You are both valued posters and I would frankly miss either of you. Differing views are absolutely VITAL in forums such as these.

[William]

Hi Stage,

my bankroll is currently at less than $500. I have pulled quite a bit of it away from the sites for the holidays and some special things for my family over the past couple of months. I feel that they deserve it for the hours I spend in front of a monitor. Isn't that what it supposed to be for? Does the fact that my bankroll isn't in 5 or 6 figures make me a bad (or overvalued) player? Just curious.

I rarely keep more than a couple of thousands at stars(that's where I play most), and the size of your bankroll has nothing to do with your poker abilities. However, I am in this particular case objecting about so much advice from a player that has earned little more than 1000 in a hole year. At some point you must get realistic. One is of course allowed to do wathever one wants; I just think that doing the show-off act with an empty wallet is a bad idea.

Take care,
William

[Stagemusic]

Cool, just making sure of what you meant.

[triplc]

I do tend to agree with William here, and this was the intended nature of my post in the other thread. Occasionally, when the table is very passive, and I believe that I can sneak a limp in and see a flop cheaply with low pairs or suited connectors, then I will.

I believe there is more value in this with low pairs than with suited cards for the following reasons. With suited cards, unless you are playing against folks who will not protect their big pairs, you need a flush on the flop (generally) to make your hand. And when the flush happens, you are unlikely to be paid off by any solid player. So, in a 10+1 Party SnG, yes it will pay more to play suited draws.

Low pairs, in my opinion, are more profitable because they disguise themselves so well. You limp in with 66 and the flop comes A63. This is going to pay off with some chips, in all likelihood. As long as you have the wherewithall to fold this when you don't hit, and fold it preflop to a big raise later in the action, then you should be OK. Also, I believe this play to be better in later position, when there is less likelihood of getting bounced out with a raise.

TJ Cloutier has said (opinions of Cris and William aside...I think TJ's credentials are solid) that the only draw he typically will call with is a flush draw with two overcards. So, rather than play 45s, you're more likely to get a flop you can play with QJs or KQs.

The two big issues I see with drawing hands are as follows. First, in NLHE, if you don't hit your draw on the flop, then it is possible at any time that someone can push you out of the pot with a big bet and the draw becomes worthless. Second, hands like QJs, JTs and 66 can become hands that lose a lot of money if you don't have the discipline to run away from them when you get a semi-favorable flop and there is action. Example, you hold QJs and the flop comes J 7 2 no spades. If you are bet into, or you bet and are reraised, are you able to lay this down? It's tough when you have top pair. Believe me, I know.

So, I will continue to look for opportunities to play draws when the situation dictates that I can, but I still think the general rule of thumb in NLHE is to play super aggressive when you believe you have the best hand. When you don't have the best hand, and need to steal or want to bluff, you have to bet strongly and aggressively to make them think you do. Calling with draws fits neither of these categories.

(Disclaimer: the above opinions reflect only the views of triplc. The management wishes to distance themselves from these views, and would like to point out that in most cases triplc is, in fact, quite a buffoon. Thank you.)

CCC

[William]

No problem.
You are only the viceking, so it goes without saying that I have to explain some things to you /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Stagemusic]

Sigh, so much to learn. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[itsmarty]

[ QUOTE ]
You are both valued posters and I would frankly miss either of you. Differing views are absolutely VITAL in forums such as these.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly. I'm sure the rest of us learn more when you disagree than when you agree, because we're forced to think about who's correct. As long as the posts are about poker, please carry on.

Martin

[ohkanada]

"Every time you get involved in a pot, you want to have the best hand and have other players chasing you. Sometimes you will lose, but in the long term, it is from this principle you will make your money."

True.

"Thinking in terms of pot odds and EV(when you have the time to wait for something better) to convince yourself to chase that flush, straight, boat or wathever, is a one way road to so few results that it won't be worthwhile playing tourneys."

Pot odds should be used in tournies as well as live games. But in live games every decision should be impacted based on the pot odds. In tournies there are certain +ev situations that should be folded. Long shot situations and chasing situation (r/r) should be folded. Erring on the side of safety is probably the best thing to do. With a 4-flush or a 4-straight if possible it is best to be the agressor and not the caller. that will give you 2 chances to win the pot. But if the pot is laying you very good odds then folding would be wrong. Of course playing hands that are giving you nut draws rather than 2nd best hands is also critical.

"In NL tourneys, the draw is death."

True.

"Small pairs that see a flop cheap in the early levels are hit or fold situations but you must be able to get something out af your other hands, that's why it is rarely correct to limp"

I think in the 1st few levels limping with small pairs as well as some other questionable cards is fine. Once the blinds get bigger compared to your stack I agree limping is wrong and then I will only come in with a raise.

"if I get the feeling that you rather have me not posting here any more, I will accept that."

Just as I want Cris posting I want you posting. The more conversation we all have in different situations makes us all better.

Ken Poklitar

[La Brujita]

This forum would lose a ton if we lost William. You better not stop posting!

I agree in general with the draws are death but will get into it in more detail later (am visiting sister and her new baby). I tried to make the point in the previous post in the hand with Cris that Greg's point about never giving up positive ev is probably true with 18 very solid players in a 200 sng but is probably not true in a $30 10 player at Party where 4 will eliminate themselves.

Can I make one request here-I hope you all agree-the tournament and one table tournament forum is so much better than the internet forum because we try not to get personal and flame. If we could get back to the non flaming it would be fantastic. I think of you all as my internet buddies and this is just a small fight among friends. It happens all the time, let's not make it more than it is.

I think William has made good points and has been pretty concilliatory (sp?) in this thread. Cris, I am a bit surprised with your tone here and isn't your flaming William's supposed earnings a bit like the pot calling the kettle black.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

So far, I have received quite a few PM supporting my actions

[/ QUOTE ]

Just as a point of fact, this is a tactic used by delusional self-proclaimed internet gods since about 1980. "In private I get a lot of support". I've read that line from more sociopaths on the internet than I care to remember. From all appearances you are little different.

You're an arrogant prick, there's just no two ways about that. But then again, so was Muhammad Ali, and a lot of other people who were great at what they do. Whether or not you're god's gift to poker as you are so convinced you are, is still an open question.

Go ahead and share your ideas. I'd like to hear them. I in fact agree with you on the small pairs issue, although the idea can be taken too far, especially when the blinds get big. But I won't pretend that you aren't a complete dork socially. But, from what I gather about poker players so far, that's par for the course, so no biggie.

Regards,
eastbay

[William]

You're an arrogant prick, there's just no two ways about that

Well, at least you have an opinion. I can respect that. the opinion itself, I don't really care, I'll sleep just as cosy toníght.

Take care,
William

[Bozeman]

Let me first say that I value posts by both William and Cris, but at this point would prefer if they did not reply to each other. Both make good points, and good players will have to decide which of competing points is more important for the situation at hand.

"Survival is in my opinion(I will never say this enough) the absolute first concern in your game."

This is incorrect: your first concern is money (per hour or per tourney). While money does not correlate perfectly with CEV (chip EV), it correlates much stronger with CEV than it does with survival. Exceptions will occur, but only some of the time, and only around the bubble. Admittedly, a SnG starts closer to the bubble than a multi, but it is still far enough that doubleing up is worth at least 1.9x $EV.

Draws are not death in NL: huge possible implied odds can make the draw a favorite over the made hand.

That said, one needs have considerably more than proper CEV pot odds to call with a draw if there are no chips left (no implied odds).

Example: Stu Ungar called with a gut shot (and <10:1 pot odds) in the WSOP, knowing that he would get his opponents whole stack if he hit.

Now in SNG's the money is almost never deep enough for this play, but many other draws are playable,
Craig

[Cosimo]

If someone says, "this is what I do, you should do this" then we need to look at their results.

If someone says, "this idea makes sense in theory, you should do this" then we need to look at the idea. Poking at the poster's results in this situation is wrongheaded.

That said, I'm not sure who is trying to support their posts with their results; I'm just emphasizing an important debate point. Let me repeat, this time with names. I'm not sure that Cris is trying to use her results to support her arguments; if she is, then William is correct to submit those results as evidence. And vice-versa.

[Cosimo]

Back to the topic at hand:

I think draws in SNGs are, in general, death. Drawing hands early-on can be great. Good drawing hands, especially. Bad drawing hands early-on are often bad. Duh?

Specifically: a hand like 67o on the button might be positive EV if you hit, if you can get someone else to go all-in. In order for this hand to be +CEV, you have to get in cheaply, hit it 'often enough', and make 'enough' to justify it. Furthermore, for the hand to be +$EV, you don't want to bust out too often because of it. On the other hand, JTs has more ways to make money, and every straight that it makes is a nut straight. They're both drawing hands, so of course not all draws are death.

Where's the line? I don't know. My tournament results are pathetic. After a post by Kurn, I stopped calling from LP with drawing hands like T9o and 54s, and from EP/MP with medium and low pairs. My results have improved, and I think throwing away those 10:1 shots has helped. Part of this is probably because I was not getting away from those hands cheaply enough, so maybe I could play them if only I played better after the flop.

I should note that I've only been playing NLHE since the middle of January. I've read Suzuki and Tourney-FAP, and too many posts here, of course.