Bad day, questionable decisions, sorry this is long

[Pitcher]

Hi All,

I am concerned about some of the long losing streaks I am having. I believe there are some issues and that the following hands illustrate this. All these are from Party Poker NL $50 Sit N Go's. These are all from today.

1st hand. 5 players left. I am on the button. Chips are T3651, T1365, T1483, T2190 and T1161 (me) The blinds are 50/100.
I have 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG folds, UTG + 1 (a tight player who has shown solid cards) raises to T400. He started with T1365. All fold to me. After some thought, I re-raise all in. An A falls on the river and I am done. His starters were A /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif
This is approximately the hand I put him on. I figured he would attack like this with A-J through A-K. I think he would have made a 3x BB with a premium PP (on evidence to support this) Regardless, my read was correct. Based on that, should I have folded? Was I too desperate to double?At best this is a coinflip.

Next one: 3 players left
I have T1495. Blinds are 200/400. Other stacks are T4210 and T3695.
I am in the BB with K /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
The button raises to T800. This player is very solid. I believe he is a professional...definitely tight aggressive. In fact, he is one of the players I am trying to emulate. Again, after some thought, I decide to re-raise all in. I believe he has Ax or Kx or better, with greater weight on Ax. Neither of us improve and he turns up A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and I am gone.
My thinking on this is that the blinds are very high, and I am likely no worse than 60 - 40 underdog. Turn out I was a 63/37 underdog. I believe I made the correct decision here, but given the quality of the opposition should I have waited for a few more hands?

The next one I think was very poor. Just a bonehead play that a good player should probably not make. 4 players left. I have T1320 left and am in the SB. The blinds are 100/200. Two big stacks (T4815, T2875) fold to me. The BB has T690 left. The BB is a poor player who is quite lucky to sitll be around. It is hard to put him on a hand, but he is semi-tight / weak. I have 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and mini-raise to T400. Note this is nearly 1/3 of my stack. BB calls. The flop comes Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Bet out T200 and am immediately reraised to T490. Inexplicably, I call, not knowing what to put him on. It was like I was on autopilot. I did NOT think. He turns up KQ, and now I am very shortstacked. I go out a few hands later for 4th. place. Comments / flames welcome here.

Finally, this one really frustrated me because it just seems like a poor play. 7 players left. I have T915, blinds 15/30. I have only called one hand so far. I get K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif. I am in the CO. All fold to me. I raise to T60. The button calls, and the two blinds fold. The button has only played one hand, so is clearly tight. The flop comes Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.
I bet out T200 into a pot with T145 in it. I am immediately re-raised to T400. I call. Turn comes 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif I check the turn, and the button bets T85. I call. River comes 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif. I check, he bets T240 and I call again. He turns over A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif Another autopilot call that leaves me with just T190 and crippled.

So, problems of discipline (autopilot calls) and judgement are hampering my ability to ba as consistent a winner as I would like. This seems to happen after not finishing in the money a couple of times and only makes things worse.

Any specific / general advice would be greatly appreciated. Sorry for such a long post.

Pitcher

[Bluff1]

Hi Pitcher,

I think hand number one your play was just fine. Hand number 2 I would have folded and waited for better cards in that spot. Hand number 3 I would have just moved in preflop. Hand number 4 seems like you were in one of those hands where you know your beat but call anyway.

As for the "autopilot" calls I use to have the same problem. Now I just take a sec and think about why I'm doing this play or that play. I think if you just took a couple seconds to think about why you are doing what you are doing your game will improve. It seems you are getting caught up in the fast paced online play and are not really thinking about what you are doing and just calling hands down.

[itsmarty]

My opinion on a couple of the hands. Comments appreciated.

[ QUOTE ]
Next one: 3 players left
I have T1495. Blinds are 200/400. Other stacks are T4210 and T3695.
I am in the BB with K 8

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you can skip this hand. When you move to the SB and Button, you're more likely to be playing against weak hands due to the combination of having less money to bet with and them being on the blinds and therefore more pot-committed.

[ QUOTE ]
4 players left. I have T1320 left and am in the SB. The blinds are 100/200. Two big stacks (T4815, T2875) fold to me. The BB has T690 left. The BB is a poor player who is quite lucky to sitll be around. It is hard to put him on a hand, but he is semi-tight / weak. I have 5 5 and mini-raise to T400. Note this is nearly 1/3 of my stack. BB calls. The flop comes Q 7 7 . Bet out T200 and am immediately reraised to T490. Inexplicably, I call, not knowing what to put him on.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you think this should have been played? I think either all-in preflop or muck, leaning towards muck because of the proximity to the money spots (unless this paid four spots, then I'd have been all-in preflop).

Martin

[CrisBrown]

Hiya Pitcher,

I know the feeling, and we all have days like this. Don't let it get to you. As for your hands:

With the TT hand, I think you played it okay. You were down to 11xBB with a solid hand, and you can't sit around waiting for the nuts forever. It was a coin flip, and it went the other way.

With the K8o, I think I might have waited for a chance to lead at the pot. You didn't have enough leverage to force a fold, so as you say, you got in as a 3:2 underdog. When you have leverage -- leading at the pot -- you can addd to that the possibility of your opponents folding. Here, you couldn't, so you were left with the bare equity of the hand itself, which as you expected was an underdog.

With the 55, I don't think it made much difference. If you were going to play the hand, I think it'd have been better to move all-in, but he'd surely have called with KQ. You just ran into a better hand.

With the KQ hand, you started the hand with 25xBB, and the blinds were really low, not worth stealing I think. KQ is a hand that will often get you trapped in exactly this way, because if you play it, it's a raising hand, and an AQo to your left will often just flat call.

But if you were going to steal, a min-raise is not often going to work. The BB would have been correct to call here with almost any two cards, as he was getting 11:2 on his call. And that makes any flop a dangerous situation for you, because you have to open the door to any combination of two cards that might beat you. Better to make it 3xBB or, considering the size of the blinds and the vulnerable nature of KQo, just muck.

When I'm reraised on the flop, I try to run through the list of hands that could beat me. In this case, you had AA, KK, AQ, QQ, Q9s, 99, and 33. You can probably rule out the big pairs, because he'd likely have reraised pre-flop. So that leaves AQ, Q9s, 99, and 33.

You mentioned he was a tight player who hadn't played a hand yet. The general reading rule is that rocks won't call without a solid piece of the flop, and a reraise from a rock usually signals TPTK, top two pair, or better.

Having said that, I've made the same call countless times, as I suspect has everyone here. That's why Doyle Brunson calls KQo a danger hand....

Cris

[William]

In hand number 1 I am going to disagree with the other posters. I think it is a fold in this particular situation.
If you are able to analyze your oponent (as you did) and narrow his hand either to a big pair or any combination of AJ-AK (or any 2 cards bigger than your tens), that lives you in the position of a horrible underdog or at best a slight favorite. It is in my opinion too early to engage in a coin flip confrontation and in this kind of situation, it is often the agressor (the one who bets first) that takes the pot down. If you exchanged your hands, he having TT and you AJ, the result would be the same, because he bets first, he is forcing a coin flip situation and as a good player, you should be folding.
You are not desperate yet, and your main concern at this point is survival (here I have to point out that it is my opinion that survival in a tourney is the No. 1 objective of any good player, regardless of pot odds and EV calculations, not everybody agrees with me)
So in this case, a bet from a solid player should have forced you to fold the all-in hand you were waiting for(he kind of took your bet, but that is the way it goes sometimes and there is nothing you can do about it)

In hand number 2, the principle is practically just the same. K8 is not a very good hand, but even if you are getting shortstacked, it is certainly not a "call/raise" hand. You have to be the agressor here or fold.

In hand number 3 I would have moved all-in, but I have no problem with folding if you want to wait for the short stack to bust.

In hand number 4, I would have raised a little more, but when called and then raised on the flop by another solid player(he has also noticed that you too, only have played one hand) I would have respected the raise and got out of that pot.

All in all, as I see it, you have to learn to accept that sometimes, no matter how happy you are about your hand, it turns out that the best decision is to let it go.

Take care,
William

[PrayingMantis]

William,

I understand the point you make about the first hand, regarding survival considerations over EV calculations, but...


[ QUOTE ]
Chips are T3651, T1365, T1483, T2190 and T1161 (me) The blinds are 50/100.


[/ QUOTE ]

Pitcher is last with 1161, holding TT, blinds are not too low. The agrgressor is a solid player, although w/T1365, not in a very good shape, might try to attack with a little wider range of hands than premium ones. It seems like Pitcher has to make a move soon.

If, as you say, Pitcher is "horrible underdog or at best a slight favorite", what hand should he wait for? Would you suggest mucking JJ here also? where do you put the red-line?



PrayingMantis

[William]

what hand should he wait for? Would you suggest mucking JJ here also? where do you put the red-line?

It is not a question of waiting for a certain hand, Unless he has a big pair (AA, KK, or QQ) it is a question of being able to move in first.
Would i muck JJ? I don't know, it depends of my evaluatin of the other player. What I can tell you is that I would raise all-in with AA, KK, QQ and AK. Another option with both JJ and TT is to just call and see the flop. If no overcard falls, then move all-in or consider calling/raising any bet from the other player.

Take care,
William

[Pitcher]

Hi Praying Mantis,

This concerns hand #2 and needing to make a move.

[ QUOTE ]
Pitcher is last with 1161, holding TT, blinds are not too low. The agrgressor is a solid player, although w/T1365, not in a very good shape, might try to attack with a little wider range of hands than premium ones. It seems like Pitcher has to make a move soon.



[/ QUOTE ]

What bothers me about this call is the blind size. I still have 11x BB's left. Is this the time to challenge a solid player. I think this is a tough decision, but I am leaning toward tossing this in the future, especially given my read of the player. It seems that a solid player leading should be avoided.

As for where the Red Line is, I think I am right on it. With JJ, I believe I should move all in without question in this situation and here is why. I did not beleive the bettor had AA, KK, QQ or JJ because of the size of the pre-flop bet (a min raise). I think it would have been either 3x or all in with those hands. So I think this player is thinking that if the flop doesn't go right, I can get away from the hand. This screams AJ-AK (with AK being the least likely, probable all in with that) to me. So, if I have JJ, I have two of the cards this player might need to improve.

Pitcher

[Pitcher]

Hi William,

Thanks for your reply. This one really has me thinking and I would appreciate a reply. The reason being is I generally think your advice is very good, but would like to hear more.

[ QUOTE ]
In hand number 2, the principle is practically just the same. K8 is not a very good hand, but even if you are getting shortstacked, it is certainly not a "call/raise" hand. You have to be the agressor here or fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree the hand is weak, and that I would like to be the aggressor. Unfortunately, a couple of things are rattling around in my brain here. 1st. the blinds are 200/400 and I only have 1400 chips left. I think it is kind of down to it within 4-5 hands. Also, the bigger stacks have not shown any inclination to put all their chips in pre-flop. Waiting and hoping they will get into a confrontation and bust out is false hope in this specific situation. Of course, I did not include this detail in the original post. Also, I believe one of the last 3 players (the bettor in this case) is an expert player and better than me. So, I don't think I am going to outplay this player from a shortstack. In other words, I need to take a risk and soon. Let me know if I am nuts here, but this is the hand among the ones I posted that I thought I played the "most" right (least wrong?).

Pitcher

[Pitcher]

Hi Bluff,

Thanks for your reply. This is one I like:

[ QUOTE ]
Hand number 3 I would have just moved in preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I am going to play the hand, move in. Otherwise fold. To me those were the only two choices.

Also, calling the raise was just folly.

Pitcher

[William]

Hi Pitcher,

I agree with you that you are running out of time, but you are choosing a situation where you not only know you have a bad hand, you also know you are against a better one. you can still afford to see at least 3 flops before you are comitted and if you are able to move all-in as the first man, it will make a big difference. I think it is Slansky who said that as long as you have chips in front of you, you must wait(and hope) for a good hand. I know one asks itself if K-high is enough to get lucky, but in my opinion, it is not. Not as a caller.
That being said, you are there where it is a crapshot for you, so even if I would have waited, playing as you did is certainly arguable.

Take care,
William

[Pitcher]

Hi William,

I will carefully consider what you say about this one, and I would like some other opinions. Here is why. I don't doubt your general advice. What I want to know is something about the mathematics. I basically am looking at 3-5 more hands. What is the probability of getting better than Kx during that time? Further, if the idea is to lead and I think it is, what is the chance of getting a reasonable all in hand with the SB or Button? Only two more hands. I really think that should play heavilly in the decision. I think if I had 5-6 hands left for sure, I would pass on Kx, but with just a couple, now it is a different story.
Anyway, thanks again and I look forward to any replies to this on the math

Pitcher

[ohkanada]

1) Probably close. Based on calling him tight a fold is probably best. With blinds of 50-100 you can't wait forever. You would rather have a loose raiser.

2) Re-stealing with K8 when you only have 500 more than the raise is bad. He isn't folding and likely has a better hand. A better choice if you feel you must play the hand is to call and then bet out all-in on all flops.

3) Either raise all-in or just call.

4) Why are you mini-raising in NL? Make it 90 or 100 to go pre-flop. When he raises on the flop does he need a better Queen to do it or would he do it with a flush draw?

Ken Poklitar

[Bluff1]

Picter if you count any pair and any ace, KJ, Kq, its going to be pretty close to 1.2-1 that you will get anyone one of those hands in the next 3 hands. In 5 hands your a little more than even money to get one of those hands .74-1. As for the small blind and the button I didn't work it out but I would guess you’re about 2-1 to get one of those hands. These are all approximate numbers that I worked out on the fly this morning but should be very close to the actually number.

[Bluff1]

One more thing about hand numer 1. I checked my records for the past year and a half and it seems, as far as my records show, William is right. You would be better of mucking the tt in that situation and looking back I would probably muck jj too. Thanks William for helping me plug yet another leak.

[LetsRock]

FWIW, I agree with you on the first hand. Getting raised into a coin toss from a tight player is not the best move. I'd have probably called the raise and fold to any overcards on the flop (unless I spike my T). Move all in on flop with no overcards or a T on the flop (assuming no AAT, KKT, JJT or even 99T type of flop).

Hand 2 - get out, not even close to a good hand.

Hand 3 - limp or all-in. Vs. a better player your move may have worked but you're not going to move a bad player off of anything that looks playable.

[itsmarty]

[ QUOTE ]
I basically am looking at 3-5 more hands. What is the probability of getting better than Kx during that time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since the Button raised, you don't necessarily care about probability of a better hand than Kx coming along in time, you just want a better hand relative to his. You want the probability that one of your hands will be better than one of his at a time when he's in the blind and hasn't voluntarily contributed to the pot.

Martin

[Pitcher]

Thanks Bluff1 and Itsmarty

Bluff, I appreciate you working out the math. Also, Itsmarty makes a good point about having a relatively stronger hand. I now understand the advice much better. Hopefully, I will plug that leak in my game. I have the tools to do it.

Pitcher